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12% of Americans are Behind on their Mortgage? Hold on now...

Profile picture for SeattleHome.com
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Foreclosures and a slow economy are taking their toll on the real estate market, there's no denying it.  Let's all take a deep breath when we read the headline statistics about mortgage delinquencies, though.

The latest screamers are these:
12% of mortgages are behind at least 30 days. 
48% of subprime loans are behind on payments. 

Those numbers are bad, but don't fall into the trap of thinking that everyone is falling behind on their payments.  Statistics have a funny way of being manipulated to their user's benefit (including me).

40% of homes in America have no mortgage.  They are owned free and clear. This would mean that only 7% of homeowners are behind on their mortgages. 

Subprime loans only account for about 15-20% of all mortgages (depending on who you believe).  If half of them are behind on payments (7%-10% of all mortgages), these late subprime borrowers would only account for 4-6% of all homeowners (removing free and clear homes again).

So 7% of homeowners are behind, and most of those are the 4-6% that are subprime.  That doesn't sound as bad, does it?  Unemployment numbers are higher than that.

I'm not here to discount the tough road we have ahead, or say that these numbers are perfect.  Just take statistics with a grain of salt.
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March 05 - Seattle

Replies (3)

Profile picture for SeattleHome.com
Real Estate Agent

View my 7 listings

Contributions: 2675
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Since February 2009

....good thought, that's another way to manipulate the numbers.  The articles make no mention of those stats.  You could also ask how many of those "behind 30 days" on payments just mailed their first payment a week late and will be caught up next month.  Who knows?
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March 06
Good points, both Sam and TM. TM, Zillow's Q4 Real Estate Market Reports showed that almost 20% of all transactions in '08 were foreclosures, so there's that piece of the puzzle.
What are your thoughts on Home Affordable? Do you think it will help the 7-9 million homeowners the administration says it will? I wrote a couple blog posts on the nitty-gritty -- who qualifies for the Home Affordable refinance and the loan modification -- but I'm curious to see what others think.
If the refi and loan mod together help 9 million, that's about 10% of all homeowners in the U.S. That would be significant.
We did some of our own analysis to see how many homeowners the refi might help. We found that about 25% of homeowners with mortgages, or 14 million, fall into the limits to qualify for the Home Affordable refi (LTV 80-105%, conforming loan), but we don't have any way to see how many of these are backed by Fannie/Freddie.
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March 06
Profile picture for Rob Cochems
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Hi Katie,

Just an FYI on your post about the Home Affordable refinance, it does not need to be your primary residence to qualify.

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March 06
 

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