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Every couple weeks we're seeing Zillow indicate the sale's comps in our neighborhoods are dropping. Congratulations to those that sold before Summer 2007, and are saving to buy something else when the foreclosures stop pouring in!
(Too bad I didn't think of it; now I'm stuck for who knows how long).
[content removed by moderator for being a personal insult]
Mr Pasa... forget about 2005 to 2007 prices... We're in 2008 and for people that were wating or couldn't afford to buy in the last 3 yrs...this is the time to move forward!
"Mr Pasa... forget about 2005 to 2007 prices... We're in 2008 and for people that were wating or couldn't afford to buy in the last 3 yrs...this is the time to move forward!"
I think most here agree that now is a better time to buy than one or two years ago. However, the $64,000 question (or possibly $400,000 question depending on what price range you're looking at) is whether or not it will be an even better time to buy a year from now. From what I can tell, there seem to be about 20 reasons that prices will continue to decline and essentially none that would support the theory that prices are near or at the bottom. I could be wrong, but I believe that in most areas of the country, it is much too early to jump back into the real estate market.
TOTALLY agree with your entire thought interested observer. Amerisave, I don't want to go at it again with you. I know you don't believe a word of what you post, you just like to debate. Maybe you should have been a lawyer instead.
Joe sixpack is finally starting to wake up. People he knows are now losing money when they sell. The talk around the office is how hard it is to sell. There's probably a foreclosure for sale on his block. But somehow some people still think this is a good time to get into the game...
It's a great time to buy you a new yacht, you mean...
Buying? I was talking about missing the opportunity to sell. I'm not going to buy something if I haven't sold first! Besides, if I can arrange to move, I'd like to buy for under $15k, or at least get 640 acres of land with trees and a stream or lake.
Webster...are you kidding me?
Prices are not going down in every zip code in the US...there are highly desired places that never had a drop or prices are actually going UP! Where do you live?
NV, AZ, FL, CA & CO are not the entire country... check your map again..
And more importantly, check to see how fast the prices were rising over the past several years and if the rate of rise is changing. If the rate of rise is decreasing, eventually the prices will peak and the prices will start to fall as the rate of rise becomes negative.
Now, if the prices never rose a bit? Maybe prices are stable, but maybe no jobs either? And maybe they still will be impacted by the stress of the loan industry in the near future?
The bubble peak is delayed in many areas, which means the decline is delayed, which means the bottom of the market is even further delayed.
So Romulo Roma...
If you are writing loans for new purchases in Georgia, and the prices drop within the next 12 to 18 months, will you pay your customers the difference out of your pocket?
Can you gurentee any of the neighborhoods in Georgia to not have a decline of more than 3% over the next 18 months?
Here is the difficult decission to make:
Does it make sense to buy in a down market or an up market?
If you buy when the market is up then you are likley to have your value go down in the next cycle.
If you buy in the down market your investment is likley to go up in the next cycle.
The only time it makes sense to not to buy in a down market is if you expect the market will never improve. (There is no evidence to support this thought)
If you have to sell now, you are likely to take a loss on the sale but, you should get the same percentage of savings on your purchase.
So ...... ??????
With all this bad news, we must be near the bottom!
The "bubble" did not occur in most areas of the country. Certainly there were slowdowns in sales and increase in inventory but no precipitous drop in values overall. The market cycles up and down but historically has always recovered to provide reasonable increases in value over time. Trying to time a purchase with the bottom of the market is very difficult. If someone is in the market to purchase a home in the near future, in most areas it's probably advisable to move forward with that purchase assuming you don't expect to live there for a year and turn around and make a killing on the resale. A home is a place to live first of all -- not an investment to fund your retirement.
Thanks for the tip Bruce.
Anyone who likes loosing money please step forward!
The bottom of Shiller's mountain will be easy to spot. (it will go flat after it finishes falling in 2011)
We're watching our 20%+ downpayment grow for at least the next 18 months. (then we'll take stock of our position once again)
The bottom? I don't think so. The few properties that are selling in my N. California zipcode are going at roughly equivalent to late 2004 prices -- which was well onto the upslope of the bubble, and well after the point when the market dismissed affordability issues. We will go lower.
Even in California, there are a limited number of households that can afford a 500, 400, or even a 300K home, and reverting to traditional lending requirements will make the buying pool smaller still.
After that, sellers and their agents just need to convince those few buyers to buy a depreciating asset at the precise moment the economy teeters on the edge of recession --- yikes!
2008 will be the BEST year for Real Estate
Yeah; every year will be the best year for real estate. There is always some clown in the industry that will make that claim no matter what is happening in the market; even at the peak of the biggest real estate bubble in U.S. history. Here's egg in your face........
Pledge To Make '05 Your Year for Home Ownership
"Homeownership brings countless benefits," he said. "When you make a mortgage payment, you're building equity, which is an investment in your family's future. Owning a home can qualify you for tax breaks that actually lower your monthly out-of-pocket costs. And homeownership provides the kind of freedom, stability, and security that is attainable in few other ways."
I could guarantee you that most people who bought in 2005 are underwater on their mortgage and that if you ask them about freedom, stability and security, they would tell you they aren't seeing it.
There is no loss of anything in this market unless you are forced to sell. No one is underwater, upside down or sinking fast if they are making their payments and going no where soon.
The facts are: you have a home, you agreed to the payments, you can sit back and enjoy until it untill it is time to sell. If you have enjoyed your home for the national average of about 10 years. You will probably be fine. Home ownership is not the same as owning futures, gold or some other commodity. You can't raise a family under a pile of oil futures or a stack of gold coins.
If you must sell soon, take your loss minus the value the home has had for your family. If you still show a loss, you can expect to make it up in your new purchase.
The sky is not falling except for those who morgtaged their properties for 90% or more and where not told that at some point they would be asked to pay it back. DUH!!!
"You can't raise a family under a pile of oil futures or a stack of gold coins."
Oh yeah? I'm going to build a house out of gold! How about that?
"There is no loss of anything in this market unless you are forced to sell. "
Well, your loss of equity might not be realized until you sell, but it can still hurt plenty, especially if you were counting on it to finance your kid's education (for instance). And by the way, it is possible to raise a happy family in a rented home, people do it all the time, all around the world.
Yes, home ownership has its good points, but people are balking at the idea of paying out 50-100K (in loss of value) just to have it over the next year or two.
I keep thinking of that Mercury Insurance Commercial; "How LOW can you Go"
Then I sing; "Georgia, Georgia, I got Geogia on my Mind".
Well, that comes out to about a Bb below 60 hz...
Anyone looking for a loud contrabass?
I am glad you say *most* people.
Well; there are a few that put a significant amount of money down.
You state "no personal attacks" and then call me a "fortune teller"?
I'm no fortune teller; but I can read graphs and some handwriting traits, and historic references.
And I can easily do trend extrapulation and least squares curve fits with such tools as Excel. Actually the functions are simple enough to write for most programable calculators and most computer programs. But with programs like Excel, we might as well be lazy.
So you think the comment "bubble is just starting to burst" is "fortune telling"?
Look at Seatle Washington and Portland Oregon. I didn't even need to look up the data; others posted it.
You won't be here a year from now.
... and, it's free and anonymous
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2008 will be the BEST year for Real Estate
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