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David Gibbons

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5 Exact Townhomes in same complex all with different prices

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valleydavid

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14256 Victory Blvd 91401

Unit 2  267,500
Unit 3  329,500
Unit 4  248,000
Unit 5  331,500
Unit 6  240,500

All 5 of these units are EXACTLY IDENTICAL they are 2b/2b @ 973 Sq FT.  They are all in one building (Townhome) They are located in an exact row together.  So why Zillow have all 5 at different prices with a spread of 81K between the highest and lowest.  I should know I live in this complex.

Also Unit 7 has gone up 70K in value in 2 months (IMPOSSIBLE)

I have lost all trust in Zillow based on this.
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August 24 - Van Nuys
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Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"

Seattle, WA

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valleydavid,
Let me have someone look into this...
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August 24
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valleydavid

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Let us know what you find in this forum
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August 25
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Stan Humphries, "Stan Humphries"

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Hi valleydavid,

Yes, something's not right with this set of homes.  Seems to be an issue with how we treat the tax assessed values, as the valuations are completely correlated with the assessments which should not be the case in CA (given Prop 13).  See below:

Unit, Tax Assd, Zestimate
Unit3, 396, 329
Unit5, 390, 331
Unit2, 313, 267
Unit4, 288, 248
Unit6, 277, 240

Possibly due to some post-model output adjustments that we make that are producing an undesirable outcome relative to the pure model outputs. Our stats team is looking into it.  Thanks for bringing to our attention.
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August 26
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valleydavid

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Thanks,  tax assessed value has nothing to due with property values in California and would be surprised if anywhere else in the U.S.  If you are using this model then all properties in California are suspect.  Properties are priced by comps and even then current models used by Bank appraisers are valuing additionally for a market reduction.  Example, it is April I have 1 comp from Dec, 1 from Feb and 1 from April

Comp 1 500K
Comp 2 400K
Comp 3 300K

Normal would be the value is 400K but the Assessors are time adjusting Comp 1 and 2 for the reducing market value.  So with Adj.

Comp 1 is 375K
Comp 2 is 309K
Comp 3 is 300K

So now Comp is 328K not the original 400K.  That would be good statistical modeling for us to have and would probably put you closer to what the banks think our properties are worth which you are way off from.

Thanks,

David
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August 26
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valleydavid

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Also as indicated Unit 7 went up 80K in 2-3 months - IMPOSSIBLE
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August 26
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Stan Humphries, "Stan Humphries"

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Hi David. Thanks for your thoughts here. As I said, what might be happening here are post-model adjustments.  We have lots of statistical and data mining models that are created for each micro-region and these models utilize a combination of pricing strategies and learning strategies (i.e., the type of modeling methodology employed).  All combinations are trained on recent sales (i.e., comps)  and temporal trends in prices among the comps are adjusted.  Anyway, it's clear that something anomalous is happening after we get done with all the fancy math here and we'll work to fix. 

If you ever want to see the how many properties in any given area are "suspect," we don't leave that up to guess work.  We aim for complete transparency and you'll find accuracy rates for each county here:

http://www.zillow.com/howto/DataCoverageZestimateAccuracy.htm

Accuracy is computed by comparing recent sales and the Zestimates computed for those homes just prior to the sale date. 
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August 26
 

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