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A Flood of Inventory That Will Produce Another Round of Falling Prices

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Spleng
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"Here comes the back half of the Storm."

"They're talking about green shoots and glimmers of hope, when they should be back in the storm shelter, preparing for a flood of inventory that will overwhelm the markets and produce another round of falling prices"

"The Housing Hurricane Will Howl Again"

May 27 - San Francisco

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Spleng
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"But an array of serious pending issues undercuts the turnaround theorists."

"Demand still softens
-- Rising unemployment.
-- No "move-up" buyers.
(this should be # of move up buyers slashed, but its a very good point: "Organic Sellers" are getting hosed.)
-- Tight credit.
-- Homes still overpriced."

"Supply likely to surge
-- Foreclosure moratoriums end.
-- Shadow inventory.
-- Walk-away underwater homeowners.
-- Loan modification shortfalls.
-- Option ARM, Alt-A time bombs.
-- High end taking a hit."

Another fine article. Definitely time to wait and not buy.
Watch from the sidelines doing yourself a huge favor.

May 27

Beth Walsh, "Ontario CA Homes"
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Beth Walsh, "Ontario CA Homes"

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I agree with some of what you said, Spleng. Down south in San Bernardino/Riverside County some areas will continue to see falling prices. I think the high desert areas of Victorville, Apple Valley will fall further although prices are already below replacement cost for many homes.

Neighborhoods furthest from employment centers will continue to fall. We are seeing price stabilization in more desireable areas like Corona, Ranch Cucamonga, Chino Hills, etc. The under $400,000 homes are selling quickly with multiple offers in many cases. Homes over $500,000 seem pretty slow and will continue to be for now.

I am worried about future sales since homeowners are not going to see equity for several years, which will hurt move up sales.

I agree many loan modifications are a joke, designed to bring homeowners current on their loans while doing nothing to help keep them in the homes for the long run.

High end homes have taken hits in some areas, not at all in others. Their slide is just beginning...

May 27

SoCal BubbleBrain
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''-- Walk-away underwater homeowners.Â ''

Big one. I said this last year..wait till the responsible buyers start walking.

What I think you will begin to see is a mass exodus of people that CAN afford their mortgage, but decide to walk away because they know they're never going to never break even from their investment, and are throwing their money away each month. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing many upper-middle class individuals doing the math and seriously considering this option.

Taking the "morality" out of whether it's right or wrong to walk away from a mortgage, speaking financially, it makes a lot of sense to walk away with how current laws are structured, and I'm afraid that's exactly what Americans are going to do en masse.Â

Someone who buys a $500,000 house that's now worth $250,000 is not going to break even in the next 10 years. A bad credit score that will be erased in 7 years is far better than losing that kind of money.

As more and more people walk away, the market will only continue to drop.

May 27

SoCal BubbleBrain
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Beth I am in Chino Hills. Rancho Cucamonga is not exactly close to the job hubs. How is it that it's stabilizing?
The inland empire has one of the highest unemplyment rates in the nation. And a hot bed for sup prime borrowers during the last 8 years. More possible layoffs and that new wave of foreclosures (many coming from the IE) will be the 2 big threats for real price stability.

May 27

Spleng
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"I'm already seeing many upper-middle class individuals doing the math and seriously considering this option."

Heard that SoCal. There is guy just like that sitting twenty feet away.

His mortgage is pretty close to rent (but not if you add in insurance, upkeep, repairs). And he keeps going deeper and deeper underwater.

Then when property tax time rolls around he is like:

"F*ck, why am I doing this?"

May 27

sunnyview
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I have a stupid question about SoCA. I am looking at communities like Riverside, Irvine and Long Beach. Is Riverside just icky. I have not been down there for a long time, but prices there seem so beat down in comparison to Irvine and even decent areas in Long Beach. Some areas are down to 1999 levels. Unbelieveable where do you see them stopping? Is it just a terrible commute to the employment hubs or is it mainly the volume of bad loans?

May 27

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I'll second that, SoCal.

I live in Corona and track the local market closely. While Corona has a better unemployment rate (9.7%) than overall Riverside County (13.2%), that near 10% unemployment rate is more than twice as high as the ~4% avg we experienced in the decade preceding the current economic crisis.

Price per square foot in all five zips has also fallen from just Feb to Apr, and sales have fallen off a cliff going from winter into spring (when sales typically ramp up).

With the building boom in Corona during the bubble, I can tell you there are a ton of Alt-A and Option ARMs set to explode in the coming months as well. Corona has nothing resembling a stable RE market at the moment.

May 27

Lady Chattel
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Amen Spleng and SoCal.......

I said it many times, if I had 20/20 I would walked and taken the money I could have and ran. I don't know why "morality" comes into this, it is in the contract........the bank gets the home back.....unless you tear the house apart and strip it bare you hold up your end of the deal by handing the keys back.
"nothing personal, it's just business" Soon coming to a culdesac near you.......

May 27

Lady Chattel
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From the first link: Law firms for banks are once again lining up to file foreclosures and to process evictions.

Apparently in FL it is so, my mom has a backlog of 1,500 ......and they keep on coming........

May 27

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Sunny,

Yeah, the commute is tough. Corona is only 20 minutes from OC, but the rush hour traffic is brutal. Fortunately for me I work in the same city I live (Corona).

Like most bigger metros, Riverside has some very nice areas, but has more less desirable neighborhoods than otherwise, IMO. Western Riverside County - Corona, Norco, Chino Hills, Rancho Cucamonga are among the nicest areas in the county.

Irvine and Long Beach have more desirable neighborhoods, better weather, schools, job centers and crime rates overall, but there are some very scary parts of Long Beach once you get away from the coast/closer to downtown.

May 27

NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"
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if the value of your home falls 50% how long does one have to wait on 3% a year inflation to recover principal + 6.5% interest? answer = 50 years

May 27

SoCal BubbleBrain
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''Is it just a terrible commute to the employment hubs or is it mainly the volume of bad loans?''

Both. Riverside and surrounding areas have the same cookie cutter type style neighborhoods as some cities in Orange county (Irvine, etc.). It's just that they are very far from the job hubs and composed of mostly blue collar 1 incomie famiies. That 45k guy had no business buying a 400k home. The bulk of the people in the Riverside/Corona area commute to LA or OC. Jim Cramer once said on TV ' too many toxic loans in that area, plow over the Inland Empire and start over'. But then again Cramer is a d0uche.

May 27

Lady Chattel
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NTETS.......lord knows many a cheertard needs to read that over and over, esp when they try the when you buy for the long term", gives new meaning to the term "life sentence"

In my area the numbers still say almost 25 years to break even.....ouch.

May 27

Spleng
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"NTETS.......lord knows many a cheertard needs to read that over and over, esp when they try the when you buy for the long term", gives new meaning to the term "life sentence""

!

May 27

SoCal BubbleBrain
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Lady Chattel
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This one is fo SoCal.....wink wink......

May 27

SoCal BubbleBrain
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Da DogFather of da Internets..my man C-Dog! Classic shirt.

May 27

Lady Chattel
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SoCal.....I saw his profile while trolling my hubs Facebook page.....that dude has an astronomical # of friends.....

May 27

Lady Chattel
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Lady Chattel
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One of my personal favs to wear....

May 27

K101
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lolz peoples

May 27

SoCal BubbleBrain
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SoCal BubbleBrain
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ZAD reincarnated

May 27

Spleng
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Caption anyone?

May 27

Spleng
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"Here between my fingers I hold all the equity I have in my very own McMansion."

"If you trust me this much your financial future will be a barren path of tears and despair."

"I will now pull out the alien tape worm which has controlled my mind and made me one of the worst liars in the history of the world."

May 27

workabee
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"This is the world's smallest violin purchased with the 6% commission from the house I sold you at the peak."

May 27

Spleng
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"Law firms for banks are once again lining up to file foreclosures and to process evictions. The asset managers we work with have warned us to expect a flood of properties, beginning in early June. This will hit as the number of potential buyers continues to dwindle. Builders, traditional sellers and investors who entered too early are already loaded with REO properties."

"Housing inventory soon will flood a market in which more than 500,000 homes are being built each year, even though the annual sales pace for new homes is closer to 300,000. We must also deal with a system clogged with impossible short sales, a surge of second and vacation homes being dumped, and third-wave flippers realizing that they entered the market too soon."

(More Mike Morgan from the o.p. telling it like it is.)

May 27

SoCal BubbleBrain
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'Live long and don't prosper...suckas!"

May 27

Linda Strasberg, "L Strasberg"
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Linda Strasberg, "L Strasberg"

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Yikes...you're scaring the c..p out of us!

May 27

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The guess of Massive of foreclosures still just a guess.
Does any one hear from any CEO of the bank say "We gonna hold up the foreclosures and we will flood the market in next few month" ?
Or any one is attended at the meeting of the CEOs of the banks and heard "We need to hold up the foreclosures and we will flood the market in next few month" ?
Or the CEOs of the banks go to the Federal Reserve banks and say "We need borrow the money from you because of We hold up the foreclosures and wait for the market get better" ?
"I'm expecting foreclosures to continue to drop," Roberts said. "I keep hearing about Tsunami II, but I don't see any evidence of this showing up.", (William Roberts, the center's director of the Valley Economic Research Center at California State University and one of most negative view peoples)
http://www.dailynews.com/business/ci_12452923
However, William Roberts, the center's director of the Valley Economic Research Center at California State University is the one get paid by California taxpayer.

May 27

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