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Ryan Beesley

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"A Lot of People Had Hoped That the Housing Collapse Was About Over"

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Spleng

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"But it was more hope than reality."

"Job losses are a major reason once-safe borrowers are falling into trouble. With unemployment likely to rise, the problem will only get worse."

"Coming: A 3rd wave of foreclosures"

(hat tip to Patrick.net)
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June 08 - Oakland
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Foreclosure: Now an Upscale Blight

Rising job losses and falling home prices are dragging down people who never dreamed they would get in trouble

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_24/b4135026913979.htm?chan=patrick.net

"Any illusion that prime loans would emerge unscathed was shattered by a May 28 report from the Mortgage Bankers Assn. "For the first time since the rapid growth of subprime lending, prime fixed-rate loans now represent the largest share of new foreclosures," the bankers said. The grime in prime was responsible for the worst performance on record for the U.S. mortgage sector in the first quarter: Nearly 13% of loans were delinquent or in foreclosure, the most since the bankers started keeping tabs in 1972. The problems were worst in the bubble states of California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada."





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June 08
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Spleng

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"Rising job losses and falling home prices are dragging down people who never dreamed they would get in trouble"

Yep and the real numbers are worse then we are being fed.  But it looks like the mainstream is waking up here and there:

"Friday's news that the official unemployment rate is now at a 26-year high of 9.4% is actually a rosy spin on what is really happening."

"The official unemployment stat that gets the headline treatment, the BLS' U-3 data set, doesn't count all sorts of folks who are unemployed and underemployed."

"To get a more comprehensive snapshot of the labor picture you need to focus on the less well-known U-6 data set known as "alternative measures of labor utilization." The U-6 includes folks counted in U-3 plus " all marginally attached workers" as well as people who aren't working full-time but wish they were"

"The U-6 rate hit 10.9% in August 2008 and has been on a rapid climb ever since; over the past year it has shot from 9.8% to today's 16.4%."

"Unemployment numbers may be worse than you think"
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June 08
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SoCal BubbleBrain

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Watch the used house salesman say in 2010-12 : " Well gosh I wish I had a crystal ball back then like you did Dr Doom!".
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June 08
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Spleng

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" Well gosh I wish I had a crystal ball back then like you did Dr Doom!"

To them I would then say many of the Realists (tm) posting on Zillow were just trying to figure out the real story and share what they found.

Speaking of which:

"Foreclosure: Now an Upscale Blight"

Still have a long ways to go in the upscale area crash but I'm now seeing the stalled house building/remodel symptom in nice upscale Berkeley CA neighborhoods.

One house got to the Tyvek wrap stage and has been frozen there for over 6 months, another didn't get that far, there has been no progress for about 3 months.

Little slices from wreckage on the outskirts creeping into the sacred citadel...
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June 08
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Michael Russell, "real estate mike"

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Excellent post Spleng. The Fed today said many people are part-timers and aren't included in the published unemployment rate. This accounts for most of the underemployed? At least there are many shifts to work in the larger cities now. I know people who work two part time jobs to make it. There is definitly more housing carnage to come. In the Dallas area we've been fortunate that we haven't see much of what the rest of the country is experiencing, at least yet. There are still some million dollar and up spec houses being built. We do have a large population of illegals that is anybodies guess, who don't have the construction jobs,etc. they had before. I have seen a huge increase in lawn services and cleaning companies popping up.
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June 08
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Lady Chattel

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Hope: the feeling that what is wanted can be had or that events will turn out for the best

Hope is a beautiful thing, but just thinking, wishing, or saying it won't make it so.   All this doesn't surprise me, but what surprises me is all the people who are just starting to talk about it and even think about it.......better late to the party I guess.
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June 08
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SoCal: Watch the used house salesman say in 2010-12 : " Well gosh I wish I had a crystal ball back then like you did Dr Doom!".

SoCal, I think you're still giving them too MUCH credit (to assume that they will respond to reality). Here's my prediction for what they'll be saying in 2010-12:

"Prices are at historic lows! Hurry and buy before you're priced out of the market forever! Interest rates are rising! Buy now! Now! NOW!"

... and I don't even own a crystal ball...
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June 09
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Lady Chattel

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Wow, perhaps the "priced out forever" line can be applied to pretty much any market condition, LMAO.
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June 09
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Randy_H

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In the last few weeks I've experienced something profoundly different than during any time since I sold in 2005:

While checking out homes, the listing agents have actually guided us to *not* be in any hurry to buy their listing.  These tend to be older, more experienced agents.  While they obviously don't say not to write an offer on their client's home, they did say things like:

a) Many sellers in this range and area have told me that they have until about September before they're forced to sell.  Until then, most are being very stubborn about price.  I'd hold off until this fall/winter unless you find a real deal.

b) My client is "priced to negotiate".  I have a half dozen listings comparable to this, and all of them are pricing at one level but preparing themselves to sell at another level.  Before writing an offer on this home I'd insist you look at a couple others I have and then think about going after two of them aggressively.

c) With all these layoffs, salary cuts and no bonuses no one knows what's going to happen.  Sellers are scared, but they don't want to cut their prices.  If I were you I'd write an offer for what you think this home is worth and then see what happens.

Now, aside from the fact these seem to be the "old school" agents who've been around long enough to see real estate cycles, I'd say that the psychology of the upper-end/affluent home market, in "prime, safe, it doesn't go down here" neighborhoods has definitely shifted.  It's finally feeling like a buyers market.

For reference, I'm talking about homes that are discounting $200K, $300K, $400K off their original wishing prices, and still not selling.  I'm talking about writing offers over a half million below the seller's listing price, and still getting an honest counter-offer in return, instead of ignored or cursed at.
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June 09
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Lady Chattel

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I saw a home that was listed $450K off the price bought in 2006......$600K for a house that a few short years ago was over 1mil......sadly some of these homes are not well kept up....meaning the cash poor owners never kept it up as well as someone who could really afford the home would, so buying this $600K home will cost at least $20K in repairs (paint, grading of drainage issues, landscaping in need of love, etc)  and puts a damper on the deal since it takes the money out of the down payment fund.......still, there is time. 
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June 09
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Spleng

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"I'm talking about writing offers over a half million below the seller's listing price, and still getting an honest counter-offer in return, instead of ignored or cursed at."

Good stuff!

".meaning the cash poor owners never kept it up as well as someone who could really afford the home would,"

Yes, and related are the houses where the flipper was unable to complete the planned repairs renovations before time/money ran out: You get the brand new kitchen but the bathrooms are gutted etc...
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June 09
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Randy_H

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Another source of beaten up, neglected homes on the higher end are those which owners couldn't sell, so they opted to instead rent out.

Simple, old, old, old school advice from realtors in their 60s or older:

If you ever intend to sell an already nice home, *never rent it out*.  Of course there are the few exceptional renters who will treat the landlord's home as if it were their own, the mass majority do not.  Just minor things, mostly.  But those add up, and after 4-5 years, you're talking about tens of thousands just to bring the home up to a sell-able condition.

Now, if your home is already a fixer, then go ahead and rent it out and put the money in later.  ...but we're talking about upper-end, prime community homes which generally aren't beaten up, even if they're a bit dated.

I've yet to walk into a single renter-occupied home I'd consider buying without slapping a fairly stiff discount onto whatever I'd otherwise consider offering.
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June 09
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Another thing that's coming to the California elite, prime, upper-end, expensive communities full of that 3rd wave of at-risk homeowners:

Stealth Property Tax Increases

Nearly every one of these areas is Mello-Roos, meaning you can get "supplemental" property taxes added to your Prop-13 fixed tax, which can be attached to your assessed value.

Well, people in richer neighborhoods aren't digging their school districts taking a big dump due to the state's financial crisis.  They're all getting letters from the district scaring the bejeezus out of them.  Larger class sizes.  Less arts and music.  Canceling all sports.  etc.

Here come the bonds.  Mill Valley alone is planning *a series* of $30mm bond measures to basically self-finance their public schools.  And where are the taxes to pay for those coming from?  You guessed it!!! 0.37% per bond added to your property tax bill, which under prop 13 was supposed to only be 1% (but is really more like 1.8% in Marin County these days). 

Well, by the end of this crisis those chumps who bought homes in 2005-2006-2007 will be paying upwards of $35K+/year simply in property taxes.

Meanwhile, renters get to send their kids to the same schools without paying a penny more -- but hey!  At least rents are going ***down***.
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June 09
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cvoc13

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I don't plan on owning ever again, (49 yr.old) and plowing in to savings.  Why OWN when RENT is hundreds of thousands better off? People, please re-evaluate why you think it is the AMERICAN DREAM to own? It WAS... that is for a Growing country, and that is now not us as much as it is the BRIC nations. If you want to own, move to a growing nation. Otherwise Rent, and ENJOY your TIME and MONEY lets someone else mow the lawn, paint the house, and patch all the cracks in driveway... ENJOY Landlord (they are generous, they have to be.)
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June 10
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No fair "bonding" around Prop 13. Stable property taxes and affordability was the whole point of it. I think cvoc is right. People that are retiring in the next 10-20 years have to reevaluate where they want to live. It makes me wonder what will happen to the sprawling suburbia with limited services and medical care.
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June 10
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cvoc13, even though I'm as bearish as the next doomer on the current housing market, you come across as somewhat of a bitter ex-owner.

For sure, renting would have saved a fortune over the last 3 or 4 years, but to say that renting is always better is simply not true, neither financially, nor when comparing "intangibles" like security, pride of ownership etc.
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June 10
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cvoc13

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My Co Worker tried to pull that BS about PRIDE... why do you think a RENTER does not take pride where they live? I do. 

I might come off as bitter, but I am NOT as far as I am concerned the bank bought my home the day we did the loan. (With-in two months of the top of the market) 

Doom-er, You don't have clue, I will let you know That I posted on JAN 1 st n our local Real Estate blog of what was to come, and at that time I was almost a lone voice. EACH and EVERY ONE of the "predictions" (saw it coming anyone could) I talked about happen.  Oil went higher then I thought I was in the insane camp of 130 PBB (it was at 60 then with all time high of 72 at then) I was talking about SUB first, PRIMES Next due to unemployment etc..  mention that for the reason of a TRACK record, as DOOMER does not describe me. My outlook from here for all to see forever (or till they close Zillow)

Res. Real Estate (I am talking local market, of East bay Ca.)
Down 25%-35% this next 12 months
then in 2010-2011 down 15% ish
2012-2014 -5-3% then to flatten out and much like many areas before post bubble likely to flatten out and stay there (Avg here 200K and National 130)
Rates climbing all but killing sales, and those underwater unable to sell those that have to forcing short sales or Foreclosures
Commercial Property is in for a near collapse as we the people STOP SPENDING and let us not forget the local car dealerships that are closing and leaving even more Comm prop. avail. RENTS collapse causing all the Comm props build of late to have the rolling debt unable to be refi'd
Unemployment around 16% in Ca. 2012
Bitter, NO Stressed no, I am alive, and for me that is something, and this while bad is nothing compared to losing ones health. So... I am going to RENT from now on, and TAKE PRIDE in doing so... I don't need to a home to prove my worth, do you?
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June 10
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Spleng

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Definitely worth considering cvoc13's points.

I mean, I think we can agree the "best time ever!" to sell a house has come and gone and will never come again.  Of course the flip side is that the worst time ever to buy a house has also come and gone.  But we're not very far away from that "worst time" in terms of housing booms and busts and its still a pretty bad time to buy.

I'd also like to point out the "security" part of the "intangibles" has turned out quite the opposite for millions of loan owners.  More like stay awake at night insecurity.
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June 10
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if we have issues with inflation and the federal govt is issuing debt above 5-10% and mortgage rates are above 8% i think your 200k/130k averages will need to be readjusted down. my projections involve most markets developing a substantial sub 100k market with the national average 100k-120k but that is only because of equivalency.  2014-2015 a 120k mort at 8.5% has the same monthly cost as a 170k mort now( roughly 1000/month +taxes and fees)
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June 10
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I can see and agree with you on the rate issue, Add to that, the fact that incomes will have pressure on them from the HIGH and LONG time unemployment rate. So I might have been a little on the rosy side,  BOTTOMN LINE in East Bay Ca. (here for sure) I do not see any reason, at all (Pride, and all other BS including TAX) all the reasons the buy crowd has, at all TO EVER OWN PROPERTY again.  
in 2014-2015 I can see rates easily being 10% and unemployment in Ca. at that point being 12% maybe if everything went super good, and ca. became Business friendly maybe 10% but that is unlikey as we are at this point in time in danger of going Broke as state as of about 2 hours ago, Controller John Chiang is quoted as follows "are less than 50 days away from a meltdown of State government" so ca. is in a mess as of June 2009
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June 10
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Spleng

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cvoc13: "ca. is in a mess as of June 2009"

You can say that again.  Some combination of

Cutting gov. jobs
Cutting gov. job benefits
Cutting gob. job salaries
Raising Taxes

has to happen all of which puts further pressure on house prices.
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June 10
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I really cannot believe how far down CA has gone. CA has so much potential and is a great state in many ways. This housing crisis has really blown the legs off the state. It makes me sad to see such a change for the worse.
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June 10
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Cali will bounce back.  This destruction is good and necessary.  It's creative.  Imagine how competitive Silicon Valley will be when it's populated by new people driving new industries, living in *affordable* homes, earning, *reasonable* salaries.  Like it was all of, oh, 12-15 years ago.

Destruction leads to a very rough road
But it also breeds creation
And earthquakes are to a girl's guitar
They're just another good vibration
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June 10
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so only 1 escalade and 1 hummer per family? doomer indeed!
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June 11
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kelargo

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"Coming: A 3rd wave of foreclosures"

What's Alvin Toffler doing these days?
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June 11
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Alvin is the man. The future guru of everything. I bet he's got a compound in Brazil.
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June 11
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Randy_H

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I see far more Smarts today than H3s.  And there are freaking Priuses everywhere, which for some reason seem to be driven by people with daddy issues since they insist on driving them 90mph down the 101, entirely counteracting any envirobeneifit they think they're contributing.
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June 11
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Spleng

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"And there are freaking Priuses everywhere"

Randy, yes here in Berkeley we have been invaded.

Not a bad thing, but invaded all the same.

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June 12
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NTETS ZDGS 2007, "Caveat Emptor"

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I see far more Smarts today than H3s.

good!
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June 12
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cvoc13

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Can't wait for it to hit all those Judgemental mid-to High end folk, who only last year were saying, "how could anyone lose their home"? Well welcome boys and Girls, now you know.  I have a co-worker that thinks, anyone with credit score less then 700 is an inferior human, I told him a million times, I once was an 800plus like he was, and some hard times come along and bamm, so now he thinks he is immune, and I know he is going to be 300,000 upside down, so I warned him to walk, and he thinks it has bottomed and will BOUCE BACK , I warned him, but he disagrees.
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June 12

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