AZ Rob - this one is for you! Builder is delusional!!!!!

well lets see: 500-700K: active = 1948, sold last 30 days = 134.

14.5 months inventory during the absolute height of the selling season...

Lets limit it to scottsdale: 606 active, 61 sold in the last 30 days... 10 months supply. Incidentally, of those 61 sold, 14 were lender owned, 14 were short sales. [ I no longer bother counting pending sales, as there are too many short sales that sit pending forever, messing up any serious count]

So, NO, I'd say that particular segment is not feeling the love of Phoenix's recent buyers boom.

over 417K here is jumbo financing, so a buyer needs a real downpayment, had a harder time getting a loan...

As we have seen over the years here on zillow, almost EVERYBODY who makes a living in sales overestimates the market. I'd say your builder is high on crack. There are foreclosure deals on prior million dollar homes, selling at your price range. If you have patience you could get a mansion at that price these days! [and naturally, I'd love to help you get that deal!]

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September 11

mckylie
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I knew you would have fun with that Rob and have statistics to prove them wrong. I agree with you - high on crack! And they are losing a sale because of this. Not too smart in this market!

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September 11

socal_engr
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I'd like to hear how this turns out. Sounds to me like the builder stepped too far out on the limb - curious to see how their story changes after they pick themselves up off the ground.

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September 11

BMFPitt
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Be sure to stop back in the office in 6 months and laugh at them.

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September 11

DebtsNMesses
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I have a home I still go back to, just because the agent is so stupid. The house is now below what I originally offered 2 years ago. It's still vacant. lol

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September 11

NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"
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are you sure its fair to blame the agent? the agent could have his/her hands tied

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September 11

Caleb Yamanaka, "CHUTTA"
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LOL. Yep always the Agents fault that the Seller couldn't wrap their heads around the fact that there house wasn't quite worth what they wanted.

Let's run a checklist:

1) Agents fault because they artifically inflate the market
2) Agents fault because they will not lower price to market value
3) Agents will price your house too low just to sell quickly
4) Agents will force you to buy high so that they can get as much commission as possible.

Basically if the Buyer or the Seller on the otherside of you doesn't see it your way, must be the Agents fault.

As Jan Brady would say its always "Agents, Agents, Agents".

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September 11

Lady Chattel
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Well Chutta, it would never apply to any of our star agents we know and wuv here in Zillowland.......

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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"
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Michael Russell, "real estate mike"

well, agents do represent themselves as "experts" in the field of "buying and selling RE" so when a buyer overpays and is represented by an agent, that IS the agent's fault...

and when agents agree to market and represent a seller (or buyer) with unrealistic expectations, that's their fault too.

and when agents try to use the equity cushion in your home to market it, rather than properly assessing the property or overlooking "slight discrepancies" when i'm going to pay too much because they dont want to lose the sale... thats their fault too...

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September 11

Michael Russell, "real estate mike"
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as any appraiser knows, listing price is normally the top of the market value, to pay that price with no seller concessions is asinine. A knowledgable buyer and their agent will usually see that beared out in the comps also. To the original post, hard to believe a spec(I'm assuming) builder would fall inlove with any lot at this time in this market. That said there is still a value which the builder places on the lot based on purchase, profit, and potential of having a buyer for it. If they want too much and the subdivision seems overpriced might try another subdivision or as R.R. says try to get a mansion for a steal. best of luck

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September 11

Caleb Yamanaka, "CHUTTA"
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well, agents do represent themselves as "experts" in the field of "buying and selling RE" so when a buyer overpays and is represented by an agent, that IS the agent's fault...

ridiculous... because buyer's never fall in love with a house and against better judgement have offered to pay more then market to get what they want. are you implying that the agent then has a duty to say "if you insist on overpaying I cannot represent you"?

and when agents agree to market and represent a seller (or buyer) with unrealistic expectations, that's their fault too.

really? i'm not sure who is being unreasonable here.

and when agents try to use the equity cushion in your home to market it, rather than properly assessing the property or overlooking "slight discrepancies" when i'm going to pay too much because they dont want to lose the sale... thats their fault too...

I am not even sure this makes sense. you need to clarify.

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September 11

mckylie
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I don't get it? We recently started looking at another builder in the area. They are currently offering $100K off their prices or $80K off with a pool. They have told us they will not negoiate prices. So, my husband asked with the slow economy and the holidays coming up (typically real estate slows down then) if they may be willing down the road. The response was that "it is highly unlikely because they have not lowered prices in that community in over a year. As a matter of fact they have raised them 5 times in the past few months."

So, what is this $100K off or $80K off and a pool? Does that mean they raised their prices by that much and then advertised that they are offering that amount off so you think you are getting a good deal?

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September 14

BMFPitt
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"it is highly unlikely because they have not lowered prices in that community in over a year. As a matter of fact they have raised them 5 times in the past few months."

Ah, the infomercial pricing method. This house is a 800k value and we're giving it away for only 400k! But wait... There's more! [Clip of a guy in another house trying to dive into a shower-tub and cracking his head.] If you act now, we'll throw in a pool!

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September 14

Lady Chattel
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They claim they are not lowering their price which may be somewhat truthful, but a year ago you didn't get the finished bonus room, the granite, or the pool for that same price, so when the builder is putting all that extra bling and the price isn't $100K more they are essentially discounting. Dangerous part of that is it will/can devalue the hood, cause they often do other things that you as a new buyer aren't aware of such as take out a bathroom, make a room or two smaller, no crown molding in the master, very subtle things that as a whole may cheapen the whole house and you would be none the wiser.

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September 14

Pasadenan
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Of course it is fair to blame the agent for the housing market condition and the transaction outcomes, just as it is fair to blame licenced hair stylists for bad haircuts, even if their clients asked for it.

But notice, no one is suing the realtors for the outcome because they are not liable.

The people at real fault for the present conditions are:
1) The polititians for deregulating the lending industry
2) The Fed Chairman for recommending deregulation of the lending industry
3) The CEO's of the lending institutions for establishing bad lending practices for their business, in spite of the knowledge that "all the competitors are doing it".
4) The National Association of Realtors for their blatently false advertisements.
5) HUD for promoting really bad housing policy.

But the mistakes still wouldn't have occured without realtors.

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September 14

Caleb Yamanaka, "CHUTTA"
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wow Pasa no blame to the consumer that had a never ending appetite for the golden apple? as the cliche goes, there was no gun held to any person's head to continue buying.

many folk who knew better didn't... actually darwin might have been on to something.

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September 15

NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"
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chutta, ever heard the old saw "a lie of omission is still a lie?" well yes its true that the American public became intoxicated with easy money and the feeling of power that comes with owning a 4500 sq foot mcmansion. but there was not one protection in place that guaranteed that buyers were educated enough, nor aware that they needed to be. while i agree that every person should be competent, the reality is that you represent a person at the negotiating table. your job is not "what can i do to put you in this house today" as a buyer's agent. your job is to represent the interests of the buyer. the distinction should be made. if that means sticking them in a home that is 400 sq ft shy of their dream or working a little harder at the negotiation, then yeah, thats your job. and if the seller refuses to set a reasonable price, then yeah informing the buyer of that is your job too. what other possible use could a buyer's agent possibly have, if not to protect me from my own lacking in the real estate field?

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September 15

frisky1
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"what other possible use could a buyer's agent possibly have, if not to protect me from my own lacking in the real estate field? "

Yes, the average consumer would recognize and follow good advice and common sense when they heard it. hahahahahahahaha

Your assertion that the buyer's agent must work in the best interest of the buyer overall--well, that would involve getting copies of all the buyers' financial information. Aside from a preapproval letter, the agent has absolutely no knowledge and is not allowed to have any knowledge of the buyer's true situation. Don't tell me people don't lie -- all the time-- and don't tell me agents are allowed to pry into or analyze the financial details of buyers-- that's a sure way into an EHO violation. All the agent can do is help determine fair market value, pull together all negotiating points that help the buyer, and make sure the buyer is preapproved from some bank. thats it. Advising a person that a house is affordable or not to them on the basis of anything other than a preapproval letter is absolutely 100% illegal. And if the banks say a person is qualified, they are qualified.

I agree with Pasadenan's list but I would put the consumer above real estate agents in responsibility.

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September 15

Pasadenan
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Nope. No blame for the consumer. No one is emotionally strong enough to avoid the hype of the advertisement industry. Just like I don't blame the alcoholic for being an alcoholic or a chain smoker for being a smoker. Once you are caught in the "trap", the only way out is a strong desire to be out, and the help of others around them.

Look where "blame" got the alcholics and chain smokers in relationship to the churches. Outcast, with no help. It took one church member to step outside the traditional church box to create a 12 step help program to lift these people out of their trap.

Even if one choses to never pick up a newspaper and never turn on the TV, one still can't avoid the lies of the advertisements, as they are posted all over the nation on billboards, bus-shelters and busses. Even on the public radio stations! And if one goes into any store, they are innundated with it. About the only choice to avoid the propaganda brain-washing is to move to a Menanite community, or to issolate oneself in the National Forests or desert.

The Federal and State Governments even mandate that the consumer propaganda be presented in the public schools.

Read "The Hidden Persuaders" and "1984" again. With such a propaganda machine to put money in the Realtor's and Lender's pockets, there is no way that the brainwashed consumer could be blamed.

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September 15

frisky1
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If people are so helpless and cannot think at all for themselves nor have any personal responsibility for any of their actions because they are completely manipulated by their betters, then who exactly are you talking to? Why do you waste your time?

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September 15

Caleb Yamanaka, "CHUTTA"
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NTETS,

You present such a utopian distinction. If you agree with Pasa that the consumer has no free will then I guess there is no arguing this point.

I am not sure that there is a time where an Agent knows every single detail of an individuals motivations. As Frisky1 points out, most times you have only the information that the customer is willing to provide, which differs per the individual. An Agent can only do what they can do with the information provided. Do some Agents force bad decisions on their customers? Of course. Do Buyers and Sellers withold the truth of their own position to make a purchase or sale? All the time.

Pasa, Real Estate is not a narcotic and nor is it physically addicting (maybe Robert Kiyosaki would disagree). The assertion that Buyers and Sellers have no free will in the decision making process is ludicrous. You are an owner a few times over, do you mean to say that you should never have bought or sold a home and that by doing so it has made you worse off then you would be if you never had anythign to do with Real Estate? (similar to if one never partook in alcohol or nicotine).

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September 15

sunnyview
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Are you sure that real estate is not an addiction? I mean look at this article here or this from Zillow itself

Zillow is just the "dealer", but the drug is definitely real estate. It has a powerful pull both in terms of the nesting instinct and the money/investment side. Combining those two things the primitive and representational wealth is powerful.

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September 15

sunnyview
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.

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September 15

Pasadenan
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Of course Zillow is an addiction; that was discussed extensively last year.

As for "free will"; of course there is "free will"; it doesn't negate the brainwashing. Don't you remember Patti Hurst? She had "free will" in spite of the brainwashing. Yet she really was not free to do anything outside of what the kidnappers programmed into her. The unprogramming was almost impossible and was "against her will".

So, the alcoholic chooses red or white wine, or bear, or vodka, or wisky, chardony, or any number of products that I have no idea what they are and no desire to find out. And the smoker chooses ciggerates or cigars, or pipe, and if ciggerettes choses menthol or plain, filtered or not, low tar or not, brown paper or white, rolled yourself or pre-rolled,
lucky strikes or camel, or ...

And the over-eater choses McDonnalds, or Burger King, or KFC, or Del Toco, or Home Town Buffet, or In & Out, or Dunkans, or Winchels, or A & W, or Wimpies, or 31 flavors, or .... Fish, or Steak, or Ice Cream or Cake, Cookies or Vegies, Potatos or Pizas... it all comes out the same. The person is eating because of conditioning and other issues, and has become unaware of reasonable boundaries.

There are times when buying makes sense, but most of those that bought between 2002 and 2009 are not buying because it makes sense, but rather because of brainwashing in the form of NAR lies in the form of "advertisements" and "talking points".

If a student doesn't learn to add correctly in elementary school, it is the teacher's fault. There is no way to blame the student for lousy teaching and improper oversight. Practice mistakes often enough and they will become perminent. It is better to practice nothing at all then to be practicing mistakes. And yet all of them can sing the McDonnald's commercial, since that is what is "important" in the United States.

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September 15

Pasadenan
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So you are saying an "over eater" should never eat anything?

Where is the logic there? Are you implying that people should live under freeway bridges or in tents because they are "against real estate"???

There is a difference between reasonable decissions, and decissions based on media propaganda.

And we all know that radioactive granite countertops coated with plastic every 6 months is a "down grade", not an "upgrade", yet those Realtor's keep pushing their propaganda fads.

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September 15

Caleb Yamanaka, "CHUTTA"
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Since October 2009

So you are saying an "over eater" should never eat anything?

Yes! If there is an alternative to eating then a person with a disease such as "over eating" (which you've put in the same category as Alocohol and Nicotine addiction).

As is the case with Owning real estate there is an alternative to Buying (and thus Selling) its called Renting. - Consumers need to accept their rightful dose of blame, because there is a clear alternative to having to buy/sell.

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September 15

Caleb Yamanaka, "CHUTTA"
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Yes! If there is an alternative to eating then a person with a disease such as "over eating" (which you've put in the same category as Alocohol and Nicotine addiction). should not eat.

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Pasadenan
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Alcoholism is a desease, and there are known genetic factors, yet if one never starts, they don't get stuck in that trap, they just transfer it to something else.

And there are 12 step programs for over-eating, and credit, and for gambling, and for adictive shopping as well. Most addictions are not chemically based to begin with, they are emotionally based, and substantually related to misleading input. Again, I would suggest the book "the Hidden Persuaders".

It is just as bad to rent a housing unit that one cannot afford, or that is more than one needs (or wants), or is beyond one's upkeep skills, or to agree to a rental price that is outside the norm for that size and type of unit in that location.

The problem remains the same. Brainwashing from specific advertisment interests. Unconditioning that brainwashing is extremely difficult, especially as most people don't realize it occured.

The only Realtors that are not guilty of contributing to that problem are the ones that never probigated the NAR talking points, such as "now is a great time to buy", "there's never been a better time to buy", "buy now, or be priced out forever", "no one ever loses money on real estate", "it is all location location location", "housing values only go up", "they aren't building any more land", "you can afford a house that is 3 to 5 times your annual income", "it costs you less to own because of the mortgage interest tax deduction", "why pay your landlord's mortgage?", "you are building equity if you buy", "if you don't buy it, someone else will", "make your best offer or someone will buy it out from under you", "it has all these upgrades and features", "beautiful, charming, craftsman,...", "what goes down must go up", "you can refinance in a few years at lower interest rate", "buy now, interest rates will never be lower", "don't wait, or you will lose your free $8k"....

Really, the buyers didn't make up all that garbage, and they would have made much better decissions without all the media hype.

You can't blame buyers for being bombarded with over 1000 lies each day, repeated over and over and over and over and over and over and over...

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September 15

NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"
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this is where pasa and i agree

If a student doesn't learn to add correctly in elementary school, it is the teacher's fault. There is no way to blame the student for lousy teaching and improper oversight.

not to put it lightly, but on average, Americans lack forethought(to say the least). they are manipulated by NAR. i'm not just talking about the endless stream of ads and propaganda, either. NAR spits out terms like buyer "representation" or "agents." if NAR wanted to distance themselves from their involvement in the personal side of the process, RE agents would be "transactional brokers" or something else entirely. the american public thinks that you are there to represent them, wholely. if you are not, you are doing them a disservice by pretending to.

you are an educator, no different than a teacher. you dont need lesson plans, but it is quite a tall glass of koolade for you to suggest that buyers come into your office with the expertise and education to think for themselves. given that logic, brokerages in stocks should be able to sign you up for whatever they want. the SEC says no... full disclosure, full transparancy, "as with any investment, it is important that you do your own research and be aware of the risks of investing" and if i call and ask "risks?" they have to tell me. now yes, i am free to buy crox at 150/share, i am even free to invest my entire 401k there, BUT there is NO way to do this without being slapped across the face with this.

real estate has no such protections. agents are not only allowed to lie, but encouraged to. you take classes that train your agents to spit out lines like "real estate only goes up" or "buy now or be priced out forever" even the halfway decent agents quote inflated average ruturns, give out "example" tax advice and suggest that a person buy at the upper end of their range and count on cost of living raises to help them refinance their 10year interest only loan, or 5-7 year pick-a-payment. so yes, i blame agents who lead consumers down the wrong road, even if i discount pasadenan's cynical veiw that the consumer bears none of the responsibility. my finger is pointed squarely at the NAR. far ahead of flippers. the NAR manufactured the demand, to use one of the more colorful examples brought forth, they represent the "pushers" where wall st might be the chemists.

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September 15

Pasadenan
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