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Blackvault
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Could in actually happen? With so much news coming around that homes will stabilize from mid 08 till end of 08, why would anybody buy now?

But what if that news doesn't change? And the perception remains that it will be indeed a time to buy from mid 08 till end of 08. Will all the buyers jump in all at once, pushing prices up once again, and causing some people that have been waiting to buy buy because they are afraid of being priced out...again?

Will people be that stupid to let that happen again? If it does...prepare for a doomsday!

Thoughts?

December 17 2007 - US

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DebtsNMesses
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Read my thread here:

http://www.zillow.com/forum/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=15237

I was worried about the same thing.

December 17 2007

K101
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I think that, eventually, there will be an uptick in buying. But, it will be tempered by the fact that many would-be buyers need to sell their current home first. Further, folks that eventually do sell at a break-even point or less will be strained with regard to a downpayment on another home. That would interfere with their ability to obtain financing, etc. I see inventories declining slowly over a long period as a result.

Further, I believe that the media has broadcasted the pain being experienced by many following the last bubble sufficiently that people are a little smarter about not getting caught in a run-up that is not supported by market fundamentals. One can hope, anyway.

December 17 2007

Bette Defarm
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There is no question that there will be brief upticks on the way down. The entire industry will latch onto them like grim death and maybe even grab the occasional headline. That said, the forces pushing prices down to fundamental sustainable levels, can't be stopped. IMHO It is impossible.

December 17 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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No way in hell...

No bubble has ever turned around in history suddenly to become a bubble again...

Next year, the wild number of foreclosures happening right now will hit the market, there will be a slight uptick in buying in spring, but still way down from last year... By mid/late spring, the banks will start seriously reducing prices on REO property to try to stay solvent...

example: Countryslide owned less then 100 properties in phoenix last spring, they have 550 right now, and december is off the charts for foreclosures...

Inventory will explode next spring with our currently slow buying rate, and even more sellers beleiving this nonsense that the market will stabalize next year...

2008 will go down in history books as the year real estate fell.

December 17 2007

Blackvault
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Ok azrob...don't call it a bubble, more of a sharp increase, followed by a even worse drop.

December 17 2007

Aldreth
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This decline has started slowly, yet it is gaining momentum, nothing will be able to stop the freight train by the end of 2008. With affordability being the main issue, I don't see what could possibly happen next year that would all of a sudden make housing AFFORDABLE TO THE WORKING MAN.

What could possibly happen? Increase wages 500%? ERASE all credit debt? Give everyone an 800+ FICO? Give me a break.

December 17 2007

Bette Defarm
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One need look no further than the squirmings of lenders, desperate to untangle CDOs so they can figure out who actually even owns the loans. The credit crisis is not going away any time soon.

December 17 2007

Bitter Renter Ron
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I would like to know where the money is supposed to come from to drive the prices up. Are they expecting to go back to having strawberry pickers buying $720k houses? Are investors going to lend tons of money to people who have no hope of paying it back?

December 17 2007

KD in Texas
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A few people snatching up the best properties for the lowest prices shouldn't cause a bubble. Wasn't it financing that drove the bubble anyways?

December 17 2007

Blackvault
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Good points. Keep em coming.

December 17 2007

klarek the realist
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Any sort of increase that might happen will be very short-lived. Lower rates haven't stopped this stinking turd. Lending standards will continue to tighten, and the lack of liquidity will continue to suck the beast dry.

December 17 2007

matchme
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If I'm reading the comments correctly, the overwhelming number of you are saying there will not be a dramatic up turn in valuation or listing prices of homes during 2008. What about in the Fort Myers area? I've been looking to move there/buy a home for a little over 2 years and am glad I didn't now that I see homes I was interested in ($450,000ish) come down or sit unsold. When do you predict is the time to buy in that area, i.e. will prices come down. during 08? I'd like to keep as much of my money as I can, but in my attempts to pruchase I still see very unrealistic sellers. Can anyone offer me any advice?

December 17 2007

chuckdog24
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With the expectation of some "brief upticks" I'm leaning more towards us buying in 2009.
* Spring 2008 will bring seasonaly high expectations
* Any uptick in interest rates "can" create a momentary surge of buyers looking to lock in before rates go higher.

The trend is downward for sure but at least one full season in outright down mode will be needed for sellers to adjust their expectations. Fear that buyers needed to get in quick has worked in the past so there's no doubt in my mind that we'll see such fears being planted as this correction cycle plays out.

December 17 2007

sunnyview
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Some sellers who do not have to sell are holding on to old expectations. Some are willing to reevaluate their price based on the changing market. Prices will change as more repos are sold low and some sellers who have been stuck on one price have to sell due to job relocation or whatever. It will take time in areas that had large run ups for sellers and realtors to come to terms with the changes in value. It is painful to know that you have lost bubble money by not selling in the hot market, but sooner or later the real market value creeps in.

December 17 2007

KD in Texas
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sunnyview-if inflation isn't curbed, they may get to hold onto those old expectations. I hope the government isn't doing this on purpose.

December 17 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
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'2008 will go down in history books as the year real estate fell."

Heard of Black Friday? How about Black Year.

December 17 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
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oops I meant 'Black Monday'!
I am still thinking about the wad of $ I blew on black 'Friday'
that put me in the hole!

December 17 2007

Denis Greatens, "Western Wisconsin"
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Denis Greatens, "Western Wisconsin"

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I don't believe that it is so much of a housing bubble, at least not hear in the Mid-west. Maybe we are sheltered slightly from the housing craze that periodically plagues the coasts.

With the crack down on predatory lending, and the need for many potential buyers to first sell their home the return to more normal market conditions should be gradual. Unlike the Tech bubble of a few years back, houses are not as easy to sell. With stocks it is a simple as a click of the mouse or a quick call to your broker.

Houses are a bit different. First off the market for a specific property is considerably smaller, both buyers and sellers need to reach terms beyond just the price. For example; closing date, does the seller need to be out at a certain time (holidays, school start dates, etc...all play a role)

The largest two deterrents to a return to a more traditional real estate market is the crackdown on mortgage requirements, and an abundance of properties on the market, foreclosures included.

December 17 2007

Bette Defarm
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Dennis,

The problems plaguing your industry go far beyond the bubble. The bubble was one small part of an overall problem that has far reaching consequences.

December 17 2007

farmd0g
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Bear Trap. Catch a few unsuspecting types on the way down.

December 17 2007

Walty804
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--I don't believe that it is so much of a housing bubble, at least not hear in the Mid-west. Maybe we are sheltered slightly from the housing craze that periodically plagues the coasts.--

" Black Market 08 " will reach even the mid-west.

December 17 2007

DebtsNMesses
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Oops... I deleted that quick.

I seriously doubt ANY area is immune from this bust, since it was caused by the Banks on a NATIONWIDE level with easy crediting. The degree may be less, because NOT ALL areas doubled and tripled in price. The direction of the market, however, is probably a downturn wherever you live.

December 17 2007

DebtsNMesses
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K101... have you looked lately at the bidding contracts. I've been hearing since the beginning of 06 that many, many bids say 'contingent upon sale'.

In fact, on the houses I'm currently bidding, my REA's letter points out specifically that we are putting 20% down AND we don't need to sell anything first. It must be important for her to state it in the first sentence.

December 17 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
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'a downturn wherever you live.'

Words that will repeated throughout the media in many years to come.
THE SKY "HAS" FALLEN.

December 17 2007

jmac
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When each act of the play features performers that believe it is their time to shine, there is no star. In most cases, the production is shut down, leaving those starry eyed thespians to seek new venues.

So it has been in the real estate market. Initially, Greenspan thought he would boost the economy by taking the prime to 1%. Lenders had plenty of money to lend and investors stood at the ready to supply more if needed. Programs were created to facillitate the easy distribution of the wealth. Down payments, once the norm, were replaced by "HELOC's" as a second trust (didn't anyone else think it strange that a borrower could get an equity line on property they did not own?). There were not enough entry points, so we saw a rise in the mortgage broker. Many of these folks only had a laptop for underwriting (?) and a burning desire to strike it rich. The demand for homes began to outpace the supply. Homeowners began to dream of a payday that would rival the lottery and put their home on the market. Agents ignored the rising cost of gas because it was profitable to take those buyers out and about. It was easy to spot the naive and greedy agents. They used things like escalation clauses and told buyers that they wouldn't be able to buy a home if they demanded that it be inspected. Prices rose and lenders had to find a way to make sure the homes appraised for the amount of the new 100% loan. They took the easy way...they let the appraisors know what the sale price was and if the appraisor couldn't find value...they blackballed them. The surplus money problem continued. Subprime products and Alt-A programs came to the rescue. The new breed of mortgage broker only required a pulse and wink-wink promise that you could pay the loan. They offered teaser rates for the initial period of the loans. Interestingly enough, the low payment terms always extended beyond the period in which the loan originator would have to buy back the loan.
Then the ride ended

December 17 2007

Bette Defarm
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Well said, jmac.

December 18 2007

KD in Texas
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Access.thru.profile: Bette D. Farme? Also-thanks for the name change but WHAT IS UP WITH ZILLOW?

December 18 2007

Bette Defarm
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Ah, you got it! Yes it's Bette D. Farme. I have no idea what is going on, lotsa strange glitches!

December 18 2007

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