Views: 1,501
US
State
Nearby States
- Alaska
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- American Samoa
- Arizona
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Washington D.C.
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Guam
- Hawaii
- Iowa
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Massachusetts
- Maryland
- Maine
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Northern Mariana Islands
- Mississippi
- Montana
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Nebraska
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- New York
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Puerto Rico
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Virginia
- Virgin Islands
- Vermont
- Washington
- Wisconsin
- West Virginia
- Wyoming
Don't see it?

Find:

Anyone see this timeline yet?

Contributions: 2799

Q&A

:1
Disc

:2767
Photos

:31

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/09/23/weekinreview/20070923_BAJAJ_GRAPHIC.html

I'm surprised I didn't see this until now; it's a great timeline from the New York Times showing the events that led up to the biggest housing bubble in US history.

Flag content

October 27 2007 - US

RSS

Replies (136)

lucydjacobs
Contributions: 1271

lucydjacobs

Contributions: 1271

Q&A

:1
Disc

:1270

View full profile

I would have preferred more info about demographics, such as demographics that show size of whether or not young people entering the age of being home buyers was larger or smaller in some years; if home market was the move-up home or the starters that rose, or retirement homes.

Knowing if some real-estate gadfly sells his D.C. condo wasn't as informative as knowing the "whys" based on population growth, demographics. The post-World War II building boom coincided with troops returning home and starting families. That sort of info, demographics based, or how much the home market heated up because of legal immigration or 1990s amenesty program, would have been interesting in being able to predict future trends. And yes, I know lending practices became too loosey-goosey the past five year or so.

The "bubble" began to burst much later than experts anticipated.

Flag content

October 27 2007

chuckdog24
Contributions: 1521

chuckdog24

Contributions: 1521

Q&A

:101
Disc

:1419
Photos

:1

View full profile

That's a great detailed companion to Schiller's 117 year history graph which only went to 2005.

Flag content

October 27 2007

BayWind
Contributions: 465

BayWind

Contributions: 465

Disc

:453
Photos

:12

View full profile

That chart tells me I am wrong. I think we will drop to 2001 prices. From that chart I could see it going to 1990 prices. Scary. Maybe I will hold off 2-3 years from buying a vacation house.

Flag content

October 27 2007

Walty804
Contributions: 1660

Walty804

Contributions: 1660

Q&A

:127
Disc

:1520
Photos

:13

View full profile

crap.

Flag content

October 27 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
Contributions: 12450

2 Big 2 Fail

Contributions: 12450

Q&A

:7
Disc

:12271
Photos

:172

View full profile

1990 prices? Sure, whatever you say.

Flag content

October 27 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
Contributions: 5290

SoCal BubbleBrain

Contributions: 5290

Q&A

:353
Disc

:4561
Photos

:376

View full profile

1998 prices are are a possibility in some areas (when the runup started). Especially SoCal!

Flag content

October 27 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
Contributions: 12450

2 Big 2 Fail

Contributions: 12450

Q&A

:7
Disc

:12271
Photos

:172

View full profile

Prices do not go back to where they started anytime there is a housing slump. Those who got in early always remain ahead of the curve.

Flag content

October 27 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
Contributions: 5290

SoCal BubbleBrain

Contributions: 5290

Q&A

:353
Disc

:4561
Photos

:376

View full profile

Time will tell who is right. So far time is on our side ;-)

Flag content

October 27 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
Contributions: 12450

2 Big 2 Fail

Contributions: 12450

Q&A

:7
Disc

:12271
Photos

:172

View full profile

Are you sure about that? Rents will continue to go up and up and up as you wait. Rents in southern California are up nearly 6%. Do you know how much my monthly mortgagae payments have risen? 0%. Do you know how it will rise in the future? 0%. The joys of having a fixed rate loan!

Flag content

October 27 2007

LongIslandBubble
Contributions: 2799

LongIslandBubble

Contributions: 2799

Q&A

:1
Disc

:2767
Photos

:31

View full profile

My rent has been quite steady for years; I could find cheaper, but I'm just lazy.

Flag content

October 27 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
Contributions: 5290

SoCal BubbleBrain

Contributions: 5290

Q&A

:353
Disc

:4561
Photos

:376

View full profile

I own a home owner and side with the bubble heads. GASP..oh the horror. Well welcome to reality. Even some current homeowners see that something is just not right. Just being realistic about this whole situation. It is what it is...bad and about to get worse.

Flag content

October 27 2007

BossGuy
Contributions: 304

BossGuy

Contributions: 304

Disc

:304

View full profile

I think we will drop to 2001 prices. From that chart I could see it going to 1990 prices.

adjusted for inflation yes... so many fools really think appreciation is the one way ticket to wealth...

Flag content

October 27 2007

Randy_H
Contributions: 4390

Randy_H

Contributions: 4390

Q&A

:63
Disc

:4223
Photos

:104

View full profile

We bought a house in 1996 for almost 11% LESS than the sellers paid in 1989.

So prices do go back that far. Even farther, in fact.

Our 1996 price was within about 10% of that house's 1980 purchase price.

Hmmm, that's prices going back between 12-16 years, depending how you look at it.

And no inflation factored in. Much much much worse picture if you add in inflation, which was sorta high during some of that run.

Flag content

October 27 2007

plarusa
Contributions: 861

plarusa

Contributions: 861

Disc

:858
Photos

:3

View full profile

We bought a house in 1996 for almost 11% LESS than the sellers paid in 1989.

And.. how much is this house worth today?

Flag content

October 27 2007

mrfnuts
Contributions: 1353

mrfnuts

Contributions: 1353

Q&A

:50
Disc

:1260
Photos

:43

View full profile

Ugh!

Another 'The real estate market will always go up in the long run argument'.

Read this thread:
http://www.zillow.com/forum/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=10032

Flag content

October 27 2007

aaron20002000
Contributions: 116

aaron20002000

Contributions: 116

Disc

:116

View full profile

Randy:

Would what price level would interest you in re-entering the market? If you found a place in a good neighborhood that met your needs; what year's price would need to be available to buy?

Don't you ever get sick on renting?

Thanks
Aaron

Flag content

October 27 2007

LongIslandBubble
Contributions: 2799

LongIslandBubble

Contributions: 2799

Q&A

:1
Disc

:2767
Photos

:31

View full profile

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm gonna ride this thing all the way down "Shillers' Mountain"

Flag content

October 27 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
Contributions: 8650

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

Real Estate Agent

View my 1 listings

Contributions: 8650

Q&A

:1218
Disc

:7292
Photos

:140

Zillow All-Star

Since January 2009

View full profile

Yeah Randy, don't you know nothin?

Haven't you heard:

"Renting is just throwing less money away each month!"

and

"When you rent, your paying half of your landlord's mortgage"

jeesh...

Flag content

October 27 2007

Angelique01
Contributions: 2028

Angelique01

Contributions: 2028

Q&A

:8
Disc

:2016
Photos

:4

View full profile

"Are you sure about that? Rents will continue to go up and up and up as you wait. Rents in southern California are up nearly 6%."

Last week, Alpine, I would have agreed with you. Today on Craig's List, I saw rental prices seriously drop in my favorite suburb. I think people are taking the properties off of the market and choosing to rent instead. I was really surprised to see prices mostly in the $1400 to 1800 range when only last week they were hundreds more for two bedrooms.

My place is way more. Darn, I may have to move and rent at this rate and just wait out the market.

Flag content

October 27 2007

aaron20002000
Contributions: 116

aaron20002000

Contributions: 116

Disc

:116

View full profile

Here's what I hate about renting:

In my town, the avg rent to debt service ratio is 1.0. The rental properties tend to be not very nice for expenses of 'owning' and servicing debt. In fact they're terrible Isn't it true that some markets are more frothy than others?

Through Q2 2007, my town has a median income : median purchase price ratio of about 3.1, versus 10.5 in LA, 9.5 in New York, and 1.9 in Detroit.

http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/?sort=price-income&dir=down

Doesn't that mean that I have less downside risk than I did as an owner in Los Angeles?

Flag content

October 27 2007

Hamp Yonce
Contributions: 1703

Hamp Yonce

Rock Hill, SC

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 1703

Q&A

:433
Disc

:1269
Photos

:1

Zillow All-Star

Since November 2009

View full profile

The thing nobody has said is that long term homeowners (over 7 years, maybe 5) are just giving back unnatural gains. The move-up-budget-breakers and the first-time-bougth-at-the- top people are the hurting.
The speculators too, but they asked for it, and contributed to causing the burst. They deserve it. To me anyone that moved more than twice during the last cycle (since 9/11/01) are speculators to some gegree. Unless it was empty nest move downor down twice. I am a child of the 60's and greed kills.

Flag content

October 27 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
Contributions: 8650

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

Real Estate Agent

View my 1 listings

Contributions: 8650

Q&A

:1218
Disc

:7292
Photos

:140

Zillow All-Star

Since January 2009

View full profile

aaron:

yes, of course you have less downside risk;

You still however have some downside risk:

1. rents can drop, particulary if we enter a recession
2. buyers in non bubbly towns, like yours, still have to get a loan, and loan standards are set by national trends. As credit tightens, your town could still see substantial price drops, to prices below fundamental support values, as the apparently weak by national standards demand in your town drops some.

However, where I live (Phx), buy to rent is a terrible comparison, there are 58K homes for sale and 3k sales a month, and the vacant rentals on the market have climbed 20% in the last 4 months. I now expect rents to begin to slide in tandem with prices. In addition, there already have been 1200 foreclosures this month!

Real estate in Phx has just taken in a huge enema full of laxatives, but the "experts" are all standing behind the patient saying, "hey he looks ok, to me" while they are about to get covered in the eruption...

Flag content

October 27 2007

aaron20002000
Contributions: 116

aaron20002000

Contributions: 116

Disc

:116

View full profile

Awesome imagery!

Good point on the inventory vs sales rate. We're in Nashville. The current inventory of unsold homes (resale only I believe) is above the 10,500 units of a year ago at approx 16,500. The 16,500 number is below the level observed in 2002 ~ 17,500.

It's true that inventories are growing. And I know that there is no riskless purchase; especially now. However in a market with low price:income multiples & equivalent rent & ownership costs, I'm less bearish that I would be in boom markets.

I think that I can negotiate a price of about $380 on a house listed for $450. The house was purchased in 2005 for $343, with about $40k in improvements. The most recent comp was across the street; sold in July for $450.

If I can negotiate 15% in a non boom market...I may not be in too bad of a situation..although waiting almost certainly would result in me having the ability to buy for less.

Interesting..eventually people who need housing will likley being buying again.

Flag content

October 27 2007

aaron20002000
Contributions: 116

aaron20002000

Contributions: 116

Disc

:116

View full profile

Here are some of the local stats:

Trend 10/22/2007 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month
Median Price $219,900 0.0% -0.7% 0.0% +5.8%
Inventory 16,432 +0.0% +4.8% +15.8% +31.2%

With that type of inventoy build, there must be some correction..I wonder if 15% covers it.

Flag content

October 27 2007

Hamp Yonce
Contributions: 1703

Hamp Yonce

Rock Hill, SC

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 1703

Q&A

:433
Disc

:1269
Photos

:1

Zillow All-Star

Since November 2009

View full profile

Renting is still a big buyers market and will get bigger. Countrywide Home Loans will be renting houses for interest only (on the foreclosed note) any day now. Rent and invest in stocks for the next three to five years and you'll look like genius.
There are 8 to 12 million people about to go from homeowner to home-renter. But they don't change the supply demand cue=rve for renters because they aren't new renters.
Azrob is in the house.

Flag content

October 27 2007

Fixi
Contributions: 405

Fixi

Contributions: 405

Q&A

:1
Disc

:404

View full profile

America is in new territory like never before ,with the middle class being ripped off /snuffed out in all ways "what would ever cause prices to increase again? The only way I could ever see prices increasing again "America would have to build its middle class back !

Flag content

October 27 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
Contributions: 2411

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"

Real Estate Agent

View my 4 listings

Contributions: 2411

Q&A

:1
Disc

:2266
Photos

:144

View full profile

Unless I missed something, there's no vertical scale on that graph, so it's a meaningless POS. One of the tricks statisticians (or is it graphists???) use is to distort the vertical scale on a graph. Here they didn't even bother to distort it--they only gave one point--100.

But anyway, all your comments about the meaningless POS graph were really great. :-D

Flag content

October 27 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
Contributions: 2411

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"

Real Estate Agent

View my 4 listings

Contributions: 2411

Q&A

:1
Disc

:2266
Photos

:144

View full profile

Opps, I did miss something. They did pull the trick (putting 100 near the bottom) but they also had the other points labelled on the left.

Flag content

October 27 2007

Randy_H
Contributions: 4390

Randy_H

Contributions: 4390

Q&A

:63
Disc

:4223
Photos

:104

View full profile

Yes, I get sick of renting. For me, in my current income & family situation, I would consider buying in at 2004 prices. But if the market is still falling I'll be very conservative about it. My view on market timing is that one shouldn't change their present course to try to time the market. _But_, if you have to change your course anyway, then you should try to time. We had just such a situation, so we'll try our best to time things to our advantage. We could have bought our first home in 1991 or 1992 also, but we waited until the market bottomed and did quite well by it.

How much is that 1996 home we bought "worth" today? Well, people have been asking $1.2mm-ish for them. But no one is buying, and an old neighbor (who bought the year before us and stayed throughout) just sold for $785K.

Flag content

October 27 2007

Randy_H
Contributions: 4390

Randy_H

Contributions: 4390

Q&A

:63
Disc

:4223
Photos

:104

View full profile

Kary

Are you trying to be ironic?

100 is the bottom, as in 100 percent, as in 100% = 1.0, as in the initial index value.

All index-valued graphs I've every seen, produced or analyzed (often for payola on behalf of clients) are charted this way. Perhaps a quick trip to Stats 050 is in order?

Sorry to be harsh (I'm just a lemming, after all), but you were the one suggesting we're all just too dense to read into the "tricks" those evil chartists use to mislead us all. If you're going to slander then expect an equivalent response.

Flag content

October 27 2007

Tools

Create an Email Alert

This alert is for the following:

How often would you like the alert emailed?

Partner Tools

Nearby States

Anyone see this timeline yet?

Contributions: 2799

Replies (136)

Contributions: 1271

Contributions: 1521

Contributions: 465

Contributions: 1660

Contributions: 12450

Contributions: 5290

Contributions: 12450

Contributions: 5290

Contributions: 12450

Contributions: 2799

Contributions: 5290

Contributions: 304

Contributions: 4390

Contributions: 861

Contributions: 1353

Contributions: 116

Contributions: 2799

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 8650

Zillow All-Star

Contributions: 2028

Contributions: 116

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 1703

Zillow All-Star

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 8650

Zillow All-Star

Contributions: 116

Contributions: 116

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 1703

Zillow All-Star

Contributions: 405

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 2411

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 2411

Contributions: 4390

Contributions: 4390

Main Image

Have a question? Ask it here.

Most Active Real Estate Agents

Related Discussions

Discussion Slim chances of getting mortgage approval with not enough for full closing costs?

Discussion Buyers agent on hourly/fixed fees

Discussion Why Rent When You can own for less than renting???

Discussion Tax Credit Question

Discussion Home Purchased from Family - not eligible for $8k?

Related Articles about Home Buying

Guide Real Estate Buyer's Closing Costs

Guide List of Closing Costs and Fees

Guide About First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit

Guide You've Opened Escrow

Guide Picking the Best Comps

Need a Mortgage?

Get instant mortgage quotes

Be A Good Neighbor