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- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
We're not even close to bottoming out.
Housing tracker tracks LISTED prices, not sold prices. In phoenix, housingtracker showed 5k up, but by the mls I see that sold prices in december actually dropped by 2% both median and mean, in one month.
a couple of comments: 1. foreclosures have been delayed by fannie/freddie policy, the christmas holiday slowdown, and california law. Depending on where you are looking, this may have distorted the market info a bit.
Hold tight, given the job losses we have been seeing, 2009 will be a very bad overall year for real estate. Let the Obama New Deal optimism pass, I like the guy, but he can't cure this one so easily.
a couple of comments: 1. foreclosures have been delayed by fannie/freddie policy, the christmas holiday slowdown, and california law. Depending on where you are looking, this may have distorted the market info a bit.
Hold tight, given the job losses we have been seeing, 2009 will be a very bad overall year for real estate. Let the Obama New Deal optimism pass, I like the guy, but he can't cure this one so easily.
- Micky007
- Contributions:21
You will not see a bottom until late 2011, then after that at least 3 to 5 years before you see an increase. Buy if you can afford, not based on bottom or top. Are you buying to live in?, or as an investment?? You can forget everything that you have learned about the market in the past 10 years, the next 10 years will be nothing like the past 10. Buying a home is not like buying a winning lottery ticket. Real estate agents were pushing sales of homes like winning lottery tickets, they are not!!!
- Mark75NYC
- Contributions:1316
No - we're nowhere near the bottom yet.
- Chelsy
- Contributions:74
a couple of comments: 1. foreclosures have been delayed by fannie/freddie policy, the christmas holiday slowdown, and california law. Depending on where you are looking, this may have distorted the market info a bit.
Azrob, I am living in Northern California. do you know how many months it has been delayed by the policy and CA law? I am seeing the inventory decreased a lot during the last 3 months.
Azrob, I am living in Northern California. do you know how many months it has been delayed by the policy and CA law? I am seeing the inventory decreased a lot during the last 3 months.
- Tim and Tacy Bennett, "The Bennett Team"
- Contributions:1
I Think your right, if we are not at the bottom,we arae very close. It is a perfect time to buy and the interest rates are great. It seems like everything has come together to make the perfect buy.
- Chelsy
- Contributions:74
Micky, I just want to buy my primary home to live in, not an investment.
However, I don't want to see the value drop $30 per month after I bought. I DO NOT have a lot of money.
However, I don't want to see the value drop $30 per month after I bought. I DO NOT have a lot of money.
Tim and Tracy: "It is a perfect time to buy... It seems like everything has come together to make the perfect buy."
Housing price bust still has years to go? Check!
Recession deepening with no end in sight? Check Check!
Job losses and falling incomes from the recession to compond housing price declines? Check Check Check!
But Tim and Tracy say its the perfect time to buy! So fall on the hand grenade buyers and give us our COMMISH!!!
OH, YEAAHH! OH, YEAAHH!
Housing price bust still has years to go? Check!
Recession deepening with no end in sight? Check Check!
Job losses and falling incomes from the recession to compond housing price declines? Check Check Check!
But Tim and Tracy say its the perfect time to buy! So fall on the hand grenade buyers and give us our COMMISH!!!
OH, YEAAHH! OH, YEAAHH!
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
LOL Spleng those kool aid graphics are the one thing I'll miss most when I stop coming to this site.
I just love it how they all chime in the exact same way, with the exact same garbage propaganda. They are like that little robot graphic you posted the other day. Just saying what they're programmed to say. Same they said a year ago, same they'll say next year. They lack any self-awareness and have NO idea what they are talking about. Tim and Tracy, our retard RE agents of the afternoon.
I just love it how they all chime in the exact same way, with the exact same garbage propaganda. They are like that little robot graphic you posted the other day. Just saying what they're programmed to say. Same they said a year ago, same they'll say next year. They lack any self-awareness and have NO idea what they are talking about. Tim and Tracy, our retard RE agents of the afternoon.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4392
"I Think your right, if we are not at the bottom,we arae very close. It is a perfect time to buy and the interest rates are great", Chutta ! where are you.... ?
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
I agree Klarek, the kool-aid is my fav.
ANd to think I had lost all hope that the cheetards wouldn't come around anymore.
- jal74
- Contributions:1077
Micky, I just want to buy my primary home to live in, not an investment.
However, I don't want to see the value drop $30 per month after I bought. I DO NOT have a lot of money.
Chelsey. Then rent for another 12 months while you continue to research your market and become an informed buyer. Nothing wrong with renting for 12 months. Be prepared to re-up that lease, though as California has lots of problems which I believe time will fix, but not in just 12 months.
Nothing wrong with renting a house btw. Find a house you like and rent it. Nothing beats a 12 month trial period before you buy
Kind Regards
However, I don't want to see the value drop $30 per month after I bought. I DO NOT have a lot of money.
Chelsey. Then rent for another 12 months while you continue to research your market and become an informed buyer. Nothing wrong with renting for 12 months. Be prepared to re-up that lease, though as California has lots of problems which I believe time will fix, but not in just 12 months.
Nothing wrong with renting a house btw. Find a house you like and rent it. Nothing beats a 12 month trial period before you buy
Kind Regards
I think a lot of the factors that are spurring buying right now are artificial. There are still some key factors out there that would lend me to believe that you want to keep watching the markets.
I like the interest rates low... I'm starting to think if buy<rent and you see reasonable inventory (obviously inventory is still high) then maybe somewhere in the near future offering 40% off current comps might be safe ;0
- Chelsy
- Contributions:74
The only thing I concerned about is the inventory has decreased during the last a few months while the price also decreasing.
- saumi
- Contributions:5
The inventory should come up again with a new wave of foreclosures that are going to happen with more unemployment and exotic mortgages.
I think people are so used to abnormal prices specially in CA that these current prices look good. I think its going to drop some more atleast. Look at the increases between 03 and 07 we have not shed any of that weight off.
It is sort of crazy to see almost anything being in the 500k and above range in CA cities. Makes it look as if everyone in CA earns above 100k to afford these mortgages which is just not true.
I think people are so used to abnormal prices specially in CA that these current prices look good. I think its going to drop some more atleast. Look at the increases between 03 and 07 we have not shed any of that weight off.
It is sort of crazy to see almost anything being in the 500k and above range in CA cities. Makes it look as if everyone in CA earns above 100k to afford these mortgages which is just not true.
- interested_observer
- Contributions:517
To put things in perspective, I bought my current home in 1999 for 372K. At the peak in 2006, my model was selling for close to 900K. Today, I could probably sell for around 600K.
Based on the fact that median household income has increased only marginally over the last ten years, in my opinion, without the bubble, my home should be selling for 450K at the most. So despite the fact that the current price may be 300K less than what someone would have paid a few years ago, it's still 150K too high and any potential buyers will save a significant amount of money if they wait a year or two to purchase.
The next time a Realtor tells you that prices are low or that we're at or near the bottom, ask them how they reach that conclusion. The only way we could be at or near the bottom is if the normal relationship between income and home prices not longer applies which I don't think is going to happen.
Based on the fact that median household income has increased only marginally over the last ten years, in my opinion, without the bubble, my home should be selling for 450K at the most. So despite the fact that the current price may be 300K less than what someone would have paid a few years ago, it's still 150K too high and any potential buyers will save a significant amount of money if they wait a year or two to purchase.
The next time a Realtor tells you that prices are low or that we're at or near the bottom, ask them how they reach that conclusion. The only way we could be at or near the bottom is if the normal relationship between income and home prices not longer applies which I don't think is going to happen.
Your market will of course have its own specific dynamics, what I am seeing here is:
1. regular owners leaving the market. The reality is that they are so overpriced compared to foreclosures, there is no way in hell they can ever sell. Most are underwater, so will they stay forever, or walk is the next question.
2. something of a slowdown in foreclosures. (not a whole lot, about 1000 less each month now) this seems to be due more to delays, and owner workouts than anything else. Early indications are that the majority of owner workout redefault and foreclose later anyways. Also, fanny/freddie gave a holiday reprieve, and didn't proceed with any foreclosures. And, bank of america, reworked over 4000 pending foreclosures, as part of an agreement with the local attorney general to stop a lawsuit over countrywides lending practises.
So, I'd take a wait and see attitude. I think there is a flurry of buying going on, and coming this spring, as many buyers who sat out now see deals they can afford. Which has more strength? the number of buyers ready willing employed and able to buy, or the number of upside down struggling owners heading to foreclosure?
1. regular owners leaving the market. The reality is that they are so overpriced compared to foreclosures, there is no way in hell they can ever sell. Most are underwater, so will they stay forever, or walk is the next question.
2. something of a slowdown in foreclosures. (not a whole lot, about 1000 less each month now) this seems to be due more to delays, and owner workouts than anything else. Early indications are that the majority of owner workout redefault and foreclose later anyways. Also, fanny/freddie gave a holiday reprieve, and didn't proceed with any foreclosures. And, bank of america, reworked over 4000 pending foreclosures, as part of an agreement with the local attorney general to stop a lawsuit over countrywides lending practises.
So, I'd take a wait and see attitude. I think there is a flurry of buying going on, and coming this spring, as many buyers who sat out now see deals they can afford. Which has more strength? the number of buyers ready willing employed and able to buy, or the number of upside down struggling owners heading to foreclosure?
- Chelsy
- Contributions:74
Azrob, What do you think how long should wait to consider safe to jump in the market?
chelsy, predicting the timing is basically impossible. Government policies could change tomorrow, that directly effect how the correction will occur. Here however, are some factors to consider:
1. price/rent. The mortgage should not be much more than rent, with 20% down, 30 year fixed financing. a small premium to own is justifiable, but nothing over 20%
2. supply/demand. Should be six months or less
3. foreclosures, should have withdrawn to less than 10% of the market.
4. job market should not be dropping
5. you KNOW you will be able to stay in the home for many many years,
6. you know your job is stable for years to come.
best of luck!
1. price/rent. The mortgage should not be much more than rent, with 20% down, 30 year fixed financing. a small premium to own is justifiable, but nothing over 20%
2. supply/demand. Should be six months or less
3. foreclosures, should have withdrawn to less than 10% of the market.
4. job market should not be dropping
5. you KNOW you will be able to stay in the home for many many years,
6. you know your job is stable for years to come.
best of luck!
- BENNY CHAVEZ, "CHAVEZ GROUP"
- Contributions:89
haaaaaaaaaaaaaa no way! It is statisticly proven that we have double the amount of forclosures coming our way this 2009 expect rock bottom prices by mid year. Also an even-ing out in the market by the end of summer. Prices to stabilize by 2010 which is when you should be making your sound investment! cheers on me!
- n00bzilla
- Contributions:367
If you're seeing List (not Sale) prices go up, my hunch is there are waves of new sellers popping into the market due to obvious economic conditions. Most home owners don't follow the housing market and assume they can sell for what they paid, or make a small profit at the very least. Their basic understanding is, "houses only go up". Once reality sinks in they will have no choice other than to walk. Houses will continue to go down both in nominal and real terms. Unlike the 70's, today we have a massive oversupply.
Tim and Tacy:
"I Think your right, if we are not at the bottom,we arae very close."
We are always at the bottom or very close according to 99% of all agents. Do you look at your customers in the eye when you tell them these things?
If there is a hell I think the punishment for REAs will be a McMansion burning down with them inside of it. For all eternity, of course.
Chelsy:
"I just want to buy my primary home to live in, not an investment. However, I don't want to see the value drop $30 per month after I bought. I DO NOT have a lot of money."
You're addressing your own concern. You don't want (can't afford) to lose $30K a month in value. In that case, don't buy. The question for everyone should be, how much can you afford to lose if you're forced to sell in a few years?
Do you have 100% job security? If so, you'll be okay. Buy a home.
Chelsy:
"The only thing I concerned about is the inventory has decreased during the last a few months while the price also decreasing."
The inventory numbers are grossly understated. Do a search on "shadow inventory".
Tim and Tacy:
"I Think your right, if we are not at the bottom,we arae very close."
We are always at the bottom or very close according to 99% of all agents. Do you look at your customers in the eye when you tell them these things?
If there is a hell I think the punishment for REAs will be a McMansion burning down with them inside of it. For all eternity, of course.
Chelsy:
"I just want to buy my primary home to live in, not an investment. However, I don't want to see the value drop $30 per month after I bought. I DO NOT have a lot of money."
You're addressing your own concern. You don't want (can't afford) to lose $30K a month in value. In that case, don't buy. The question for everyone should be, how much can you afford to lose if you're forced to sell in a few years?
Do you have 100% job security? If so, you'll be okay. Buy a home.
Chelsy:
"The only thing I concerned about is the inventory has decreased during the last a few months while the price also decreasing."
The inventory numbers are grossly understated. Do a search on "shadow inventory".
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
"Prices to stabilize by 2010 which is when you should be making your sound investment! cheers on me! "
LOL WUT
LOL WUT
- Roland Barcos, "San Jose RE Agent"
- Contributions:30
Chelsy,
The best advice I can give you is to use your own best judgment. What most people do is follow trends and trends are self-perpetuating. A few years ago, few people thought the boom would ever end. Now, doom and gloom is the conventional wisdom and you will hear that things are going to get worse before they get worse. The fact is that these trends are cyclical and it's been proven time and time again that market timing doesn't work. We won't know where the bottom is until we are well past it.
After the dot.com bust in 2001, home values dipped around 10% in Silicon Valley. I know people who bet they would drop another 10-20% and missed out and are still renting today while prices rose 50-60%. Now prices are again well off their peaks and there are plenty of relative bargains available. The question is where do you want to be 5-10 years from now?
The other concern I have is that too many people view the purchase of a home as if they were placing a bet on Hot Bungalow in the 5th race at Golden Gate Fields race track. The only question that really matters is, "Where do you want to live and can you afford it?" When you wake up in the morning, are you in the place you most want to be or could you make some improvement? That's what is important to most people. All the news is about foreclosures, as if the 90-95% of homeowners that have comfortable mortgages or paid off homes don't matter. If you value your home by it's worth to you now and well into the future, market fluctuations become meaningless. Of course, your dreams have to be in line with your means, so you have to be realistic about what you can afford. Be wary of the advice that you get on any public website and, as I said at the beginning, use your own best judgment on how to live your life.
Take care,
Roland
The best advice I can give you is to use your own best judgment. What most people do is follow trends and trends are self-perpetuating. A few years ago, few people thought the boom would ever end. Now, doom and gloom is the conventional wisdom and you will hear that things are going to get worse before they get worse. The fact is that these trends are cyclical and it's been proven time and time again that market timing doesn't work. We won't know where the bottom is until we are well past it.
After the dot.com bust in 2001, home values dipped around 10% in Silicon Valley. I know people who bet they would drop another 10-20% and missed out and are still renting today while prices rose 50-60%. Now prices are again well off their peaks and there are plenty of relative bargains available. The question is where do you want to be 5-10 years from now?
The other concern I have is that too many people view the purchase of a home as if they were placing a bet on Hot Bungalow in the 5th race at Golden Gate Fields race track. The only question that really matters is, "Where do you want to live and can you afford it?" When you wake up in the morning, are you in the place you most want to be or could you make some improvement? That's what is important to most people. All the news is about foreclosures, as if the 90-95% of homeowners that have comfortable mortgages or paid off homes don't matter. If you value your home by it's worth to you now and well into the future, market fluctuations become meaningless. Of course, your dreams have to be in line with your means, so you have to be realistic about what you can afford. Be wary of the advice that you get on any public website and, as I said at the beginning, use your own best judgment on how to live your life.
Take care,
Roland
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
" The fact is that these trends are cyclical and it's been proven time and time again that market timing doesn't work. We won't know where the bottom is until we are well past it. "
The market will land with a thud. Nothing will be missed by waiting it out. You'll only cut yourself when trying to catch a falling knife.
The market will land with a thud. Nothing will be missed by waiting it out. You'll only cut yourself when trying to catch a falling knife.
- interested_observer
- Contributions:517
"Be wary of the advice that you get on any public website"
And be even more wary of the advice you get from Realtors and the NAR who will always tell you it's a great time to buy. As far as real estate being cyclical, we have never experienced a real estate bubble of this magnitude and therefore the normal rules no longer apply. At least in my opinion, prices will not return to peak bubble levels in my lifetime and I hope to live at least another 50 years.
And be even more wary of the advice you get from Realtors and the NAR who will always tell you it's a great time to buy. As far as real estate being cyclical, we have never experienced a real estate bubble of this magnitude and therefore the normal rules no longer apply. At least in my opinion, prices will not return to peak bubble levels in my lifetime and I hope to live at least another 50 years.
- Victor Nissani, "nissanihomes"
- Contributions:58
It appears doubtful that we are at the bottom of the market - what is also interesting is that property taxes were due only last month and I am sure a lot of people affected by the recession just couldn't afford to make the payment so these house will also be appearing on the market.
If you are desperate to buy, maybe buy a duplex or 4 plex instead of a home so you have an investment for the future?
- nycbpc
- Contributions:189
"The fact is that these trends are cyclical and it's been proven time and time again that market timing doesn't work."
Do not confuse a cyclical trend with the bursting of a bubble, it will cost you dearly.
- Chelsy
- Contributions:74
1. price/rent. The mortgage should not be much more than rent, with 20% down, 30 year fixed financing. a small premium to own is justifiable, but nothing over 20%
2. supply/demand. Should be six months or less
3. foreclosures, should have withdrawn to less than 10% of the market.
4. job market should not be dropping
5. you KNOW you will be able to stay in the home for many many years,
6. you know your job is stable for years to come.
Azrob, In our market.
1) price already= rent with the low interest rate and 20% down, some area even less than the rent.
2) Supply has less during the last a few months, decrease on avarage 40% on inventory in the cities I am looking at.
3)foreclosures slowed down which might due to CA law change in last year Sept.
4) Job market looks worse though.
5) I am trying to stay for a long time
Thanks for the comments, and I hope the price will return to the level we can all afford.
2. supply/demand. Should be six months or less
3. foreclosures, should have withdrawn to less than 10% of the market.
4. job market should not be dropping
5. you KNOW you will be able to stay in the home for many many years,
6. you know your job is stable for years to come.
Azrob, In our market.
1) price already= rent with the low interest rate and 20% down, some area even less than the rent.
2) Supply has less during the last a few months, decrease on avarage 40% on inventory in the cities I am looking at.
3)foreclosures slowed down which might due to CA law change in last year Sept.
4) Job market looks worse though.
5) I am trying to stay for a long time
Thanks for the comments, and I hope the price will return to the level we can all afford.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21450
Chelsey -
You didn't say where in Northern California; there are a lot of different dynamics occuring in many different areas. Some of the more rural areas didn't see quite the bubble. Areas closer to downtown SanFransico may still have higher demands due to job availablity and Bart Transportation.
No one has mentioned the most Useful tool that Zillow offers; the Z-index trend graphs. You really need to look at that for your specific zip-code, city , and neighborhood, and check the neighboring ones around it. In general, California is still sinking like the Titanic, but Riverside and San Bernardino counties are presently sinking faster, and San Mareno has only just begun its decline.
Look at the trend graph; if it is presently sinking fast, it will continue to do so. And if there is a temporary leveling off, do not believe it if it doesn't stay that way for at least 3 months; there are many factors, including the still pending "option payment loans" that will begin foreclosure in about 9 months and will increase in frequency for about two years following that.
Look also at the 10 year trend graph; take the minimum or starting point and double the value, and mark that at the end of the graph. Where is the trendline in relationship to where you marked? Still above? It will still fall hard. Already below? The market may have overswung, but it is not the bottom yet; and overswing is to be expected in a rapidly falling market. Why double? That is the high-end of the normal inflation curve (7% annual). Several say to use 4% annual. If the curve hasn't dropped before the 7% annual inflation curve yet, you know it is not the bottom and can't possibly be. The curve tells you how much money you will lose, and how quickly.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it.... Good Luck Cheley
This tape will self distruct in...
You didn't say where in Northern California; there are a lot of different dynamics occuring in many different areas. Some of the more rural areas didn't see quite the bubble. Areas closer to downtown SanFransico may still have higher demands due to job availablity and Bart Transportation.
No one has mentioned the most Useful tool that Zillow offers; the Z-index trend graphs. You really need to look at that for your specific zip-code, city , and neighborhood, and check the neighboring ones around it. In general, California is still sinking like the Titanic, but Riverside and San Bernardino counties are presently sinking faster, and San Mareno has only just begun its decline.
Look at the trend graph; if it is presently sinking fast, it will continue to do so. And if there is a temporary leveling off, do not believe it if it doesn't stay that way for at least 3 months; there are many factors, including the still pending "option payment loans" that will begin foreclosure in about 9 months and will increase in frequency for about two years following that.
Look also at the 10 year trend graph; take the minimum or starting point and double the value, and mark that at the end of the graph. Where is the trendline in relationship to where you marked? Still above? It will still fall hard. Already below? The market may have overswung, but it is not the bottom yet; and overswing is to be expected in a rapidly falling market. Why double? That is the high-end of the normal inflation curve (7% annual). Several say to use 4% annual. If the curve hasn't dropped before the 7% annual inflation curve yet, you know it is not the bottom and can't possibly be. The curve tells you how much money you will lose, and how quickly.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it.... Good Luck Cheley
This tape will self distruct in...
- Chelsy
- Contributions:74
Are we bottomed out now??
Most of the cities have increase median price and increased inventory in the recent months.... any idea??? I am thinking to buy within 1 month if it is the bottom.
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