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Are we crazy to buy a home for $945K when zillow claims it's worth only $8367K? (N. Potomac, MD)

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stever500

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This is a very cool site. We decided to sell our home in Silver Spring, MD and move to a house in N. Potomac, MD to be closer to my stepdaughter. We found a 16 y.o. house listed at $975k, a large amount of money for this area. A similar size house, exact same floor plan up the street has just listed for $895k but the interior isn't as nice at all. It's got ugly floral drapes, ugly painted walls and in general, nowhere near the same condition as the one we love. The highest sale in the last 2 years was 6/2006 for $913k after it was listed for $929k. It sold in 13 days but wasn't the same exact model so it's hard to tell. The next door neighbor's home to the one we're looking at sold this 1/07 for $855k after it was listed for $872k w/152 days on the market, but it's not the same model either. Similar, but not the exact same.

We LOVE this house we're looking at. It's on a quiet court, probably the nicest house in the neighborhood of about 40+ homes. The interior and it's furnishings are some of the best we've ever seen in 7 years of on and off looking. We put in a contract of $925k with the seller paying $10k of the closing costs on this $975k home but 2 days later they came back with a counter of $945k and them paying the $10k closing costs. I'm very new to this and it's only the 2nd home I've ever bought, the first one 18 years ago.

We really want this home, but I just happened to find this site and zillow said it's value is only $835,866! Why would this guy want $945K let alone his original price of $975k? We still haven't sold our home in Silver Spring MD yet - our first open house is this Saturday. We're worried that if we buy this house, we might be overpaying even though it's a premium lot, possibly a $50k premium when it was originally sold. If we had to sell it, we might lose ALOT of money down the road. Our home we're in now shows like a model and it's paid in full and worth $640k or more. Are we crazy to buy this one?
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September 26 2007 - US
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Elizabeth Smith, "jtjlsmith"

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I would have it appraised if you are really interested. You can't go off by zillow. Zillow is just here to give you an idea. Sometimes the value on zillow isn't correct.
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September 26 2007
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Elizabeth Smith, "jtjlsmith"

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Zillow has my house as a 5 bedroom when it is really a 6 bedroom...Zillow's not perfect.
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September 26 2007
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Zestimates are not always accurate. Please do not base a home's value based on the zestimate. They do not take a lot of things into account, like renovations. A computer cannot tell you waht a house is worth. That is the job of an appraiser.

From the Wall Street Journal:

"But when Zillow is bad, it can be terrible -- off the mark by more than 25% on one in 10 homes. In one case it was off by $2 million.

Zillow came within 5% of the price in a third of the transactions studied by The Journal. It was more than 25% off target on 11% of them. In 34 of the 1,000 transactions, Zillow was off by more than 50%.

Zillow had estimated that a four-bedroom, 7,600-square-foot home in Fall City, Wash., was valued at $661,756. The home, built last year, sold in early January for $2.7 million.
Zillow also missed the target for Josh Benton, a management consultant at Kurt Salmon Associates in Atlanta. He sold a home last fall for about 15% more than Zillow's estimate."

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117142055516708035-O6WPplch_duU0zq_zhjQaI19vIg_20080214.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top
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September 26 2007
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Whats great about zillow is the actual prior sale price history.
I would avoid the estimates and make your valuation based
on pre bubble prices and normal appreciation trends.
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September 26 2007
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stever500

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Thanks alot folks. We are really stressing about this home, and your information is invaluable. So, are you saying that a prudent person would pay an appraisor at this point to determine as best as possible it's value before we come back with an answer to their counter of $945K?

Brilliant idea though I hate paying money for something I think I can do myself... but if you think an appraisal is key, we'll ask and pay for one. I guess I'm afraid that the appraiser may say the house is only worth $850k due to market conditions. The thing is...our emotions and heart and this guy's holding out for a higher price due to some upgrades he's done and the gorgeous chandeliers and lighting he's conveying make it worth $925k or more to us. We are nuts, right? It's not like we're trying to flip anything, we just love this little corner of the world and it's a beautiful lot.

Cheers,
Steve R
Silver Spring MD
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September 27 2007
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Are you working with an agent? If so, he should have comps from the MLS or access to the tax records to help with your offer price. Yeah, an appraisal is definitely the way to go if you are not sure. The only thing is that unless you are under contract with the seller, he may not allow an appraiser to come into the property. However, you can ask the appraiser to do a "drive by" appraisal. It costs less than a full appraisal and they don't have to go inside. You get an "estimate" from them. I hope this helps. Feel free to visit my website for more buying and selling tips.

www.JerseyCityATeam.com
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September 27 2007
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stever500

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You both have a point... We do have a buyer's agent and they admit the price may be/seems high on this property. On the other hand, it we love it, and plan to stay in it for a long time... unless something comes up and we can't afford it. Then, if we had to sell, we could be in a bit of a situation that would be bad.

The appraisal idea is a good one. I'll talk to our buyer's agent again about it.

I thank you all very much for this excellent info. We kind of get a skewed version (not that there's anything wrong with that, sales is sales) about what to do when only talking to our buyer's agent, if you know what I mean. Of course, they want us to buy a home. :o)

Steve R
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September 27 2007
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Forget the appraisal...your lender will do one to make sure the value (at least the LTV) is there. Remember, they want to protect their own interests. If the property does not appraise you will not get your loan and you can renegotiate. (make sure you have an appraisal contingency). An appraisal is just as much an art as it is a science...what if the appraisal says it is worth $945k or higher or lower...

You say you would pay $925k and the seller is at $945k. That is only a $20k difference. (without the closing cost concession) I presume you are buying a $900k house you can afford your closing costs. If yes, take it off the table as sellers hate paying closing costs when they do not get the sales price they want. Or, come in your offer and ask for the $10k in closing costs. Remember, the seller is thinking about their net number.

Counter...would you have piece of mind if you paid $935k? If $925k with $10k back is your the absolute highest then stick with it. If the home is really over priced the seller will not sell and as they lower the price be more open minded to your offer. On the other hand, someone could see the same value in the finishes and pay the $945k. He who can walk will win!
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September 27 2007
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How long has the property been on the market? Does the seller have any other needs? Has your agent interviewed the seller or the sellers agent? Sometimes price is not the only motivating factor. Could you close quickly? Could you offer something the seller wants such as to lease back the property? Get your agent to see if there are other motivating factors.

If the property has been on the market a short time...a couple of weeks then the seller will certainly have the attitude "we just listed it, lets see what the market will do, lets not take the first "low" offer"...

If the property has been on the market a while then keep working the deal to find to make it happen. Keep your cool...remember sellers have egos and egos can get in the way.
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September 27 2007
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This is great info steve_5. I talked with the buyer's agent that is helping us and she said that maybe we'll want to look at the house around the corner that's for sale again at $895k. Now that house is priced much more correctly to begin with, and it's the same exact house. The interior isn't near as nice in my book, so it would take at least $50k+ to make it palatable to me. The Master Bath is nicer and the kitchen has granite counters, but that's the only things nicer about it the $895K one.

We were going to put down around $300K in cash and finance the rest till our house sells (which could take 3 months in this horrible market). Our house is one of the nicest in our neighborhood and has all the updates anyone would want. Then when our house sells, we'd put the $580K or so we'd end up with after the real estate commission and fix up costs into the mortgage note we initially took out on the new home and refinance the loan. Or something like that. I think the lender said he'd switch it to a conforming mortgage for around $80k or so when we get the money for our house. We really don't want a large mortgage note so we will only have one at around $80k to $100k at the most. Is this the kind of intial loan situation where the lender does an appraisal and it potentially won't appraise for anywhere near where he's asking or where we're at?

Our real estate agent said that the home is high as the dad is the real estate agent and isn't from this area and doesn't really understand the value of the homes here. The seller himself is doing most of the working showing it, etc. If sure is a nice home and we'd be willing to pay more than we should for it, but not TOO much more that we'd be in trouble. Our agent said that if we planned to sell in 2 years she'd say forget it. She said for 10 years we'll be fine.

Steve R
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September 27 2007
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Bam...there is your negotiating leverage...the same house for less (then add in your upgrades) and be around the same or better. If you could deal with doing all the upgrades then put in an offer based on having to do the upgrades. If this house is back on the market then the motivation is probably greater.

You are in a great negotiating position....leverage/consider both situations against each other. Try to take the emotion out of it but also do not lose a deal over a few thousand dollars either.

As far as the financing and appraisal...the bank will only want the value for the LTV (loan to value) so in your situation the banks appraisal is worthless for negotiating purposes. I still say forget the appraisal...your agents sales comps (if similar) are good enough. Why? The appraiser uses the same comps.

Your agent sounds like they are doing the right thing. Find out as much as you can about the sellers. That is your agents job. Have the agent ask all the questions I mentioned in the earlier post. Take that information and decide an offer strategy.

If your market is as slow like most others you are in a good position to get a deal done to your satisfaction.

Bottom line...negotiate hard but be willing to keep an open mind and ego in check. I have had buyers who low ball and then are insulted when the seller will not even counter. Whats up with that?

AND, remember...when you sell your home you get to feel what it is like to be a seller in this market. Do not get emotional about your house being the best and worth it...in this market maybe it is not? Bottom line...a house is worth what someone is willing to pay.
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September 27 2007
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Great additional information. Yeah, the house JUST went on the market last week. Someone put a contract on it for probably less than we did after just 1 day. We put one on it 2 days later. The comps sold for less but they aren't exact comps due to their only being a few houses built by this custom builder in this area. The closest comp is the other one that's for sale for $895k (instead of the $975k that our seller is asking).

I sure wish the house we want (instead of the same model up the street, not on the court, with red brick instead of off white brick) had the $895k pricetag. We'd be in it now!

I'm tempted to post the links to the houses for sale here but my wife said I'm "not supposed to do that, that it wouldn't be a prudent move". I'm not sure I understand why. She gets a little paranoid at times about stuff in general :o), but I sure do love her.

Regards,
Steve R
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September 27 2007
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OrlHomes.com

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Well...if in your market the $895 house went under contract (executed contract) or had offers within a few days and you know it would take $50k for the finishes you want in the $945k house then the market is speaking and the $945k house might very well be worth it.

My point...( and I am not there and not privy to all the realtime information) if you lose the $895k house are you willing to lose the $945k house.

At the $900k level 2% is $18,000. Your agent is right over 10 years 2% will mean very little. In 2 years it could mean a lot.

Make a deal! Do not fall into analysis paralysis!
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September 27 2007
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stever500

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You on right on the mark with that info steve_5. If the $895k house languishes on the market for weeks, months, then we could get that for about $840k or less I'd imagine. If it sells fast, and it was JUST listed too, for about the $895k, then we should have snapped up the house we LOVE love love. :o)

Oh... this is such a tough decision. And yes, we are in analysis paralysis. Excellent phrase.

I'm not sure why anyone would come on this site and bother to help us for free, but I am indebted to your kindness. I guess it's like my car and watch forums. I sit on there all the time offering advice to newbies.

Cheers, truly...

Steve R
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September 27 2007
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In the meantime...put your house on the market and test the waters. If you sell quick it gives you motivation to make a deal. If it is harder than you think it helps you decide what to do on your next house.

What is the worse thing that could happen...you sell quickly and buy quickly or you sell slowly and watch what happens to the other homes.

Good luck...
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September 27 2007
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Excellent advice. We're looking at both of these houses again today. I think our buyer's agent is kind of pushing us to make a decision on the one we love at the risk of losing it. It's hard to explain how nice it is, we feel like we just "have to have it". Probably not the best of an ideology going into this.

Who knows, maybe the seller will give us time to decide as the market may dicate that it sits for a few more weeks before a more substantial offer comes in. By then, we'll know if there's any action on our house or not. If there's no action on our house, then we might want to wait on the newer one.

Cheers,
Steve R
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September 27 2007
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You're obviously very smitten with the house you want, and to your credit you admit that up front; once a strong emotional attachment comes into play, the strictly financial decision of buy/don't buy has to accomodate that.

If you are confident you can afford the house, and you're already mentally picturing yourselves moving in and making it your own, I say reach a deal you can be comfortable with and buy it. If you're planning to stay there long term and, again, the payments are affordable, you may regret more NOT buying it down the road than you'll regret any further value decline it may undergo in this teetering market.

I know I've suffered from the "what might have beens" when I made a decision strictly on a financial basis letting my head overrule my heart. Nothing as big as a house, though.
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September 27 2007
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toprealtor

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Personally, I have found that the zestimate is not always accurate. There are a lot of things to take into consideration. Some of the comparables that are being used are from too far back in this volatile market. An appraiser is the best resource. Your Realtor should be able to give you an idea of what the value of the home should be based on comparables.
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September 27 2007
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Drew Meyers, "Drew"

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Toprealtor -
Please note that comparables on Zillow are not used the same as an agent uses comps to calculate a CMA - http://www.zillow.com/forum/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=3442
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September 27 2007
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In Maryland you can search property taxes and sales, many states put this info online search for real property


http://sdatcert3.resiusa.org/rp_rewrite/
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September 27 2007
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stever500

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Thanks folks. We saw both houses again today and have decided we must have the one we love, if at all possible. Our realtor buying agent emailed us this tonight:

"I spoke with a lady I work with in my office tonight and she and I both agreed that if you counter back at more than $925,000 you should probably add the appraisal contingency. Also, to be able to get our preferred home inspector, it would be good to keep the home inspection contingency to 7 days as it is right now. Five days might cut it too close."

Sounds like a plan. We're going to go this route, though I hope that $925 and not $945 buy this house for us. We could really use the extra $20k to repaint part of the outside that needs painting, fix a some outside wood that's rotted, recaulk the master bath huge shower, and have some money left over for emergencies :o).

Steve R
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September 27 2007
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Agent Smith, "WillSell4U"

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stever, I'm so happy for you. I wish you the best in your new house. You will love it.
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September 27 2007
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mpal

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GL Stever!!
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September 27 2007
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Good luck Stever! Hope you'll be very happy in your new house.....
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September 27 2007
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don't forget transfer/recordation taxes in the deal

http://www.dat.state.md.us/sdatweb/transfer.html
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September 28 2007
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stever500

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Thanks everyone! It seems that we have a ratified contract, so we're very happy. I appreciate all the info we got here. We got it for $930k. More than we wanted to spend, but more house than we could have dreamed of. It's an amazing find...

Cheers,
Steve R
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September 30 2007
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mpal

Norwalk, ct

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Congratulations Steve, sounds like you will be very happy!!!
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September 30 2007
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Angelique01

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Congratulations, Steve!
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September 30 2007
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caballosnegros

Spring Grove, Il

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Zillow pricing in my case has been a nightmare- they have the comps against 1/4 acre homes- we have 10.1, plus indoor arena, stalls etc. etc. It does not help! (1 acre lots across the street sell for 140-160K an acre so the amount of land is very important).Zillow is stressing me!
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October 01 2007
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2 Big 2 Fail

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Congratualtions on your house! Hurry up and buy it before LIB tres to change your mind with his rambling and conspiracy theories...
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October 01 2007

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