Are we near the end of this slump???

Everyday the newspapers run stories about the real estate market headed to the bottom. Are we even close to it? What do you think?

  • March 13 2008 - US
  • 3
    3Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Be a Good Neighbor. Be respectful and on-topic. No spam or self-promotion! See our Good Neighbor Policy.

Answers (20)

Profile picture for planetwalker2

Depends on how much the politicians screw it up. I see in this area prices have stabilized a bit. We never were bubble though. I come from an area of hard working, conservative working class folks who didn't fall for that stuff too easily. Our economy is not just based on a couple of industries. REOs aren't being dumped. Only the truly trashed ones are very cheap. I also hear some influential fund managers are moving back into REITs. I'm not seeing any more creative financing to sell houses than normal. Everyone has to live somewhere. Folks should fight good job outsourcing as much as anything else right now. That would take some heavy legislation though because most big biz people don't care about that sort of thing nowadays.

  • March 13 2008
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for Bette Defarm
I can't get over how woefully behind the curve the RE industry is....I hope you saved during the boom and understand what is happening with investors and how it affects your industry.

It remains unbelievable to me that the people writing here have an influence on average people's most important financial investment. Seriously, it is boggles the mind....
  • March 13 2008
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for Bette Defarm
X / it boggles the mind....
  • March 13 2008
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

I presume you are not alluding RE agents are incompetent or unqualified to advice on "average people's most important financial investment," are you?

  • March 13 2008
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for Bette Defarm
Feh. My post is a plain, obvious statement. You aren't trying to pretend otherwise, are you?

Whatever.
  • March 13 2008
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for Bette Defarm
Good health. I'm done.
  • March 13 2008
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for Bette Defarm
Just want to say: this exchange says so much. Really.
  • March 13 2008
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

This market will continue for 8-12 months more.  Toooo many foreclosures and excess inventory.  The new conforming loan limit is a band aid.

  • March 13 2008
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

I have been in the Biz 30 years.  Been through 3 down turns in the industry. This is the worst.  Last 5 years everybody that could pass the RE exam became a "RE Agent"  According to NAR.  25% of the Realtor membership did not earn a commission  in 2007. They say 30% of the realtors in my city are leaving the business.  Some good agents, some OK, some not so good.  Our industry is just like many other professions when it appears money can be made everybody wants to get on the band wagon.  Membership in our Board had doubled in the past 5 years.  Every industry needs a correction so that the remaining dedicated true professionals can restore dignity, professionalism and cconfidence in our profession.

  • March 13 2008
  • 3Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Cosign Cathy! Its cleansing time. Only the true professionals will remain standing.

  • March 13 2008
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

To Terrabella:

All we know about the media is that they're trying to sell you something, and the two major themes are to tap into your fear, or your greed. That message is designed by the source. So you have to find the answers yourself.

 

Check your data. What are the trends for property values, inventories, and time on the market (just for starters)?

 

As far as liquidity ( or lack thereof) and tight lending guidelines, the pipeline of bad debt is extensive and could put pressure on the mortgage and Real Estate market for some time to come. Not just subprime. In fact, the media (and Bernanke and Greenspan) are just beginning to talk about Alt-A, Interest Only, Stated, No Doc, Neg Am, etc. A LOT of that stuff is going to go bad.

 

The Big Banks have no clue or will try not to admit how many Billions of "writedowns" are ahead in the next couple of years, but there is a reason that Bear Stearns had to be bailed out, and many banks have similar exposure. I believe everyone will have heard the word "Derivatives" before the smoke even begins to clear. The book "Trillion Dollar Meltdown" is a good look.

 

On the bright side: Buyers have, and should have for a while, a nice entry point that did not exist for a few years, and looked like (to many) would never come again. You will not hear about a market bottom until after it occurs, because it is based on lagging indicators. So get in there and buy! And call me about pre-approvals!

 

If you are interested in some good information sources so you can follow the drama yourself, send me an e-mail or give me a call.

 

Thanks,

 

Bob

(888)551-5897

  • April 08 2008
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for Cal Homes

Cathy Sloan- Are you telling us that back in the 80's when interest rates were in the 16-18% range and you had to have atleast 20% down to get a home is better then now?? You usually have some great things to say, but I'll have to disagree on this one with you.

  • April 10 2008
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Every down turn feels like the worst ever. This one is far from done, I'd guess we're at least 18 months from it flattening out. The foreclosures are just starting.

  • April 14 2008
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Cal Homes

I have never experienced a market in Jacksonville like the market we have now.  In the 80s Real Estate sales slowed but not anything like we are seeing this year.  Sure it was tougher but you could make a living. We have always had a steady stream of Job Relocations.  I remember a lot of adjustable rate loans.  I was CFO for a major Jacksonville Real Estate firm with 32 offices between 1978 & 1985 before getting my RE license.

 

Fortunately through the years Jacksonville has been very resilient during national recessions and down turns.  Our ecomomy in the 80's did not suffer as did other areas of the country.  Our unemployment rate was well below the national average seems like it was in the 4% or less range when he nation was at 7%

 

I recall being on a weeks vacation in Gatlinburg Tenn.  The town and surrounding area seemed vacant compared to other visits there.  When we talked with shop keepers and restaurant staff they all told us that just about every one vacationing was from Jacksonville or North Florida.  The majority of license plates we saw in the area were from Florida.

 

Now does seem to be much worse  than I remember the 80's .  I remember purchasing a 1980 Corvette and another one in 87 .  So I guess the answer is definitely no because I would have never purchased such a luxury if I felt times were uncertain.

 

 

  • April 14 2008
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for JimSulli456

Do you think that it has anything to do with the speed at which information is shared?

  • April 15 2008
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Cathy,

 

This is a bad one at least here in Fl.  I'm in O'town and we are only pumping out about 1000 resales per month with 25,000+ on market.  From a lending standpoint, we simply can' allow high-risk borrowers get a mortgage.  Although FL, CA, CO, AZ, NV,  etc are the leaders in the foreclosure category, we are simply over supplied with no marginal financing.  FHA is the new subprime posterchild as well and will make the problem continue.  I personally don't mess with that stuff, but we are laced with it and there is simply no investment value in RE in Orlando.  rents va. mortgage payments mus get closer to find the bottom and that is in the abyss currently. Kudos to you as you are one of the few realists I have seen in our combined industry.  No magic bullet here, just have to trudge through it day after day and some day it will clear.

  • April 15 2008
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Martin

 

I was at a Seminar in Orlando in Feb.  The Orlando stats given to us at that time were a lot worse than Jacksonville.  Seems like you had a 23 or 26 month supply of homes.  Jacksonville had a 17 month supply of homes down from 23 months in October 07.

 

My last office meeting disclosed that 26 of our office listings had sold in March,. Nineteen of those listings were listed by our REO specialists. Two were my listings. Isn't  that pathetic?

 

Some of the projections I see show that Orlando has some worse times ahead.  In Feb it was predicted that Jacksonville will see a 7.8% price decrease by the end of the year.

 

All we can do is wait and see.

  • April 15 2008
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Jim

I am not sure if it is the speed or the availability of everyones "expert" opinion.  Have you ever seen or heard of so many experts with so many takes on what is or whats to come?  Look at a lot of the posts on Zillow.  These folks are only verbializing what a lot of individuals in our nation are thinking and feeling.

 

The days of hearing the news at 6 PM and 11PM are long gone.  We get bombarded all day long. You can't even get lunch without seeing a TV scrolling the headlines. No wonder every third person is taking zanax, zolloft or something.

 

Yes, there are a lot of people going through rough times with the foreclosures, pre-foreclosures and short sale situations. But what about the rest of the people who are not experiencing those difficulties.  Why have they changed their spending habits, limiting dining out, no new clothes, cars, etc.  Many on Zillow will blast me for saying this, but if the news was not so conflicting all the time, the rest of us might continue with our normal lives and  the economy as a whole could be much better.

 

 

 

  • April 15 2008
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for sunshineday

@ Bob Freedman:

 

How could you actually write this?:

 

You will not hear about a market bottom until after it occurs, because it is based on lagging indicators. So get in there and buy! And call me about pre-approvals!

 

Absolutely disgusting.  You should be ashamed of yourself for writing such self-serving crap.  I want to throw up.

  • April 15 2008
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

SS,

Funny zinger..  I personally don't klnow anyone purchasing RE for investment.  The sun will rise tomorrow, but it also rises every day in New Orleans and they are still "cleaning up" from Katrina. Cathy, as far as "the others" whor are not in trouble, I simply think it is just changes one's behavior and priorities when a crisis comes.  I remember the FL canes several years agao and I forgot about lending and was simply looking for fuel, water, food and electricity.  7% delinquency is very high and pressurizes all around.  In many areas, we are simply "trapped" for no better term in our homes and most are happy with that, but America likes choices and we don;t have many right.  As far as bottom goes pricie wise, we will se it when LENDER Foreclosures seel at a higher pace than being brought in. I wish everyone well and most people who lived within means will be OK, not unaffected, but OK.

 

  • April 16 2008
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.