Atlanta (north east - cumming) Home Prices

Hi Ron -- I haven't worked in Forsyth county (my focus is Dekalb, Fulton and Cobb) so I'm not 100% sure what the market is like there.  If you want to buy something, I would look at a few things -- 1) What would this home have been worth 2 years ago -- because it will probably be worth that amount in another 2 years    2) What did the other homes in the neighborhood sell for in the last 3 months 3)  This particular builder may have priced the home as low as he/she could go without having to bring money to the closing table (i.e. his mortage on the home is $365,000 and if he sells it for less he has to bring $20,000 in cash to closing - and he just doesn't have it).    4)  Are you working with a Buyer's Agent?  That is usually the best way to get a great deal on a home.  I would recommend visiting a website called ActiveRain.com to search for a real estate agent who can represent you.

 

To answer your other question -- is it a good time to buy now?  I know that we'll probably get a bunch of comments about this question, but in my professional opinion, yes!  Interest rates are very low and Metro Atlanta is near the bottom of the market.  Several national publications (including Forbes) are forecasting that Atlanta home prices will start to go back up in mid 2009. 

 

I know this is a tough decision, but if you found a home you love and one that you think you can get a good deal on, I would say go for it!

 

All the best,

Kerry Lucasse

Ron:

 

What makes me vary weary about IntownAtlanta's post is this

 

1) What would this home have been worth 2 years ago -- because it will probably be worth that amount in another 2 years

 

What?  This is a very bold statement.  Now she might be right, but you need to have a few more facts then this.  It's one thing to call a bottom, but to say that prices will be where they were 2 years ago is a suggestion that the RE market in your county will rebound in a "V" shaped curve.  People will throw a lot of things to look at your way.  For me a simple gauge of where your market is right at this point is to track inventory.  If inventory is in the double digits then you will want to continue to wait.  When you see inventory dipping below double digits and headed to 5 or 6 months of inventory, you will want to get in the game because at that point you will still be working in a Buyer's market.

 

Prices will be the same as they were 2 years ago.  We need to see some linkage to that statement.  Are you adding more jobs?  What makes you think you will see such a rebound?

 

 

2) What did the other homes in the neighborhood sell for in the last 3 months

 

If this market is following a similar national curve then right now you would go for 20% below what these homes were selling for 3 months ago.  Negotiate from there, but that's only if you intend to buy now.

 

 

4) Are you working with a Buyer's Agent? That is usually the best way to get a great deal on a home.

 

Get a Buyer's Agent who will give you the market data you need.  Analyze the data and then you  can make a decision.

Well my answer probably won't be popular either, but I would say that in this market you need to know whether it is your time to buy or not. It sounds like you think that this house should have more negotiation room in it than the builder is willing to give. I would tend to agree with you based on what you have posted. Nobody can truly tell you where any market is going right now because there are too many national uncertainties. My point is if you feel like this house should be less, you may be right. Buying now may lead to trouble later. Do your research check www.policymap.com to find out how many foreclosures are in the area you are considering or houses at risk for foreclosure. Check www.city-data.com to se what kinds of jobs people have on that neighborhood and if they are at high risk for job losses. Look at the quarterly data on Zillow for the area http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketChartsAndMaps.htm?msa=Atlanta+Sandy+Springs+Marietta+GA 40% of the houses in Atlanta sold last year were sold for a loss. Why is this area different? Will it be better protected from owners who are in financial trouble? If so why? Do your own reserach so you can make a measured decision. Then you will know if it is a good time to buy and for how much.

If you are uncertain, do NOT buy. The market will correct and you will have plenty of time to make a solid choice for your situation. I think you will know it when you see it.

I sold a home in Forsyth in Nov 2007....for $100K less than appraisal and thus far I have seen no resale activity in that neighborhood since the builder is still building and even they aren't selling much and what they are doing is taking out all bling in the home, making it slightly smaller and then charging a lot less...so essentially the neighborhood is starting to tank!  How would you like it if you paid $500K for a home and now someone is buying a home for $300K or less down the street?  Also of note, many of my neighbors had jobs that made no financial sense as to how they could afford $350k-$500K homes.....all those subprime wannabes are gonna foreclose when the resets hit.   You have time on your side and besides don't you want to wait and see the quality of that neighborhood and whether it may withstand a bloodbath in real estate.  Brad Carlton is a stand up realtor--give him a call, he will give you things straight up!!    

 

DO NOT waste your money that far North...much better opportunities exist closer to town.  For your budget, you can find a home in Sandy Springs or Roswell.

Thanks to all for responding...

I wanted to buy a home in Dunwoody area, but they are expesnive around here, i mean to get a SFR least u need to spend is 475K. and they still are holding strong to their asking prices...

I dont have much idea about sales here though.

I think Atl sucks by not having a multi directional uniformity in growth in good comunities...it has good communities growing only in few directions...

I think that Lady Chattel's realtor steer is probably very solid if you aren't already working with one. If you are looking to buy in especially in this market, you need a really honest realtor that has worked the area for a while. Atlanta looks like is is still trending down from everything I have seen. It think it may take a little longer to climb up the property ladder, but I think it will so caution and solid research are the watchwords to try to stay safe.

LC would never refer less than the best and her standards are very high to begin with.

As a realtor working in the GA-400 corridor exclusively, I'll add this to the thread:  Avg sales price is slightly down in this submarket, but not by as much as you might expect.  The number of transactions is down, however, by about 40%. 

 

Overall, the 400 corridor is still a very desireable location to live, offers some of the best job base and public schools.  Foreclosures are available, no doubt, but not to the extent of some other areas of Atlanta.  Atlanta is a big marketplace with lots of diversity.

 

If you are serious about buying something, my advice to you would be consult with a real estate professional about what a reasonable/conservative offer is and go make some offers to builders and sellers who may want to dump inventory before the end of the year.  I've negotiated three deals like this in the last ten days.  Use the end of the year to your advantage.

 

If you want more market data and analysis, check out my blog at www.liveinalpharetta.com/blog or feel free to call me.

 

PS:  I agree that Forsyth is MUCH more affordable than Dunwoody/Sandy Springs.  And much newer construction.

If you want to have a multicultural community to live in Forsyth isn't quite there yet.   I knew people who bought 25 yr old ramblers in Roswell for $500K in 2004, so the closer in to the city the more pricey.   Dunwoody is quite pricey, and the only thing you will find under $500K is an apartment or something that needs a million $$ in renos.  Living off 400 is much better these days since they widened it.   Prices in the burbs there didn't triple like many other bubble areas, but the prices did rise and they are falling quite heavily due to builders left to build build build. 

 

Thanks Sunny for da support.   I had several REAs feed us the sales pitch.  We went with the marketer with all the bling support and it did nothing!! I drove my price changes downward since she wasn't suggesting anything.   The final ax for her was the fact that my house was listed online at three different price points; one the original list price, one the first price dip, and the third was the current price.   How is that going to help my listing?  Brad also drove with cleaning supplies in his car....yes, he went that far.   His communication was tops and within 6 weeks of listing with him we got a contract, we got a low ball and we negotiated and got the deal done.  Brad had sold a home a few doors up: that listing came out within a week of mine going up for sale and they sold months before I did: cause he had the forsight to help his client dip the price and move it.  Had I had him I would have sold and walked away with a nice profit, instead I was with a do nothing REA and we chased the market down until I walked with nothing!   

 

But like I have said many times: hard to tell what some of these neighborhoods are going to look like when the dust settles.  I would rather buy on an uptick instead of buying while foreclsoures are still happening--you might end up purchasing next door to that.  Or buy in a well established hood, though even those are seeing changes from the new owners tanking too.