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David Gibbons

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Bay Area - Its V so far....(I can't believe my eyes)..

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silent_observer

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where are the pom-poms? it is really smoking hot here. i know a friend who offered 20K+ asking to get a house because he was outbid 4 times in a row :-) is it a repeat of 2003 or 2004 again? low rates, cheap fannie & freddie credit and bubbling market? i checked a site where I look for market action index (altosresearch) and in some cities it is "sellers' market" WTF.
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July 30 - San Francisco
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silent_observer

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check this - http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/concord-real-estate-market

http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/antioch-real-estate-market

http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/dublin-real-estate-market

http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/brentwood-real-estate-market
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July 30
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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just wait for it. we have known for a while that the foreclosures would slide and the govt bribe would be effective... granted i am surprised aswell, but the other shoe has to drop sometime.

a "seller's market" is just one more incentive for a bank to foreclose rather than deal
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July 30
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space_acer

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"Altos Research works with thousands of real estate professionals around the country. When they talk about their local markets on Twitter, we display it here."

LOL!  yea, like that carries lots of creditability...
.
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July 30
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silent_observer

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space, i have followed altos-graphs during down market and it was "down". things are changing in some areas.
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July 30
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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yes, but to assume that it cant change back just as quickly is foolish given the data that is publicly available at this point... hell, we are still reeling from banks deflation... wage deflation and cpi deflation (rent component) are barely even going yet. sure hours have been cut, and jobs lost, but the real story will be cross-the-board wage reductions in the neighborhood of 20% or more. we will be using 1995 dollars before long. how much did you make in 1995?
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July 31
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Randy_H

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Basing the economy on mid 90s dollars is just about right in my summation.  I would say more like 1997-8 dollars instead of 1995, since 95 was still in a sinking housing market and pre-dated the rise of the tier-2 VCs or biotechs.  By 97/98 the economy was rising, but the bubble wasn't really ignited in full yet.  The bubble was really late 98-01.  My measuring stick is that in 97 it was still relatively difficult for a startup to get funded by quality money ... there were tough standards and lots of competition for the dollars.  By 99 any moron could get top-tier VC money.

But the big epiphany (no, not the dot-com era E.piphany, lol) is that many Bay Area workers don't earn significantly more today than they would have in 97/98 (95 is a stretch).  Lots of engineers, IT professionals, business analysts, and line-level biz manager sorts of folks are making only marginally more today than they were over 12 years ago; many are making less.  I know a lot of people who were making in the $120-$150K/year range in the mid 90s who are now making in the $120K-$150K/year range, even though they have over a decade of added experience.

In fact, this has been the central premise of my Bay Area housing market economic theory.  Affordability, based in income, went bonkos.  I'd say if you can find a house at anything under 2000/2001 prices you should take a hard look and run the numbers.  If you get to the mid 90s prices, you should probably take an even harder look.

I remind you that circa 1995-through-1997 (in some areas of the Bay) housing prices were flat or even still falling in places, yet rents were spiking straight up.  That was during a (for the time) low but fast-rising interest rate environment, and a sluggish but fast-recovering economy.
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July 31
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The Red Squirrel

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It's interesting that in all those graphs, the price per square foot mostly flattened out around May, so any increase in median price since then is due to people buying increasingly larger houses as the summer progresses.
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July 31
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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i don't know... in 1995 or 1998 120k was alot of money... or at least it seemed to me, more recently, while engineers may not have seen a huge wave of wage spikes, by 2005 we saw liberal arts majors pulling in 100k in a lot of cases... and being bay area specific, commercial RE was something wild already. so maybe there is a little bit of a glass ceiling effect, but that doesn't mean that you wont see huge wage deflation. and truly i tend to be on the pessimistic side that says "if 1998 was normal, then we will probably fall right through it on the way down as people continue to save more, shop around more, spend less, etc.
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July 31
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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btw randy, i am curious,

since 95 was still in a sinking housing market and pre-dated the rise of the tier-2 VCs or biotechs.  By 97/98 the economy was rising, bu tthe bubble wasn't really ignited in full yet.

assuming for a moment that the foreclosures pile on as expected in 2010-2011, banks start failing at a rate of several per week(300/yr +/-?) and we see market liquidity fall and unemployment rise for lets say 2 more quarters, why is it that you dont think that the -more- depressed 1995 number is appropriate? in the heart of this thing you expect VC money isnt going to run a little drier than in 1997?

is this a recent view based on the strong number we have been seeing? or is this just what it is?
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July 31
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Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"

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Wanted to point you towards our new San Francisco home values page.
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July 31
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Oh, I definitely think the economy could get worse than 1995.  Actually, 95 was a pretty stable, if sluggish economy in the Bay Area.  It was the quake through early 90s that were much worse.  I'm talking mainly about real estate values which I think are slightly out of phase with the employment/income cycles.  After all, real estate is sticky.

My view is largely through the VC lens because I think that powers a lot of the marginal salary pressure in the Bay Area, and because our economy isn't powered by just a few large firms but instead by the largest ecosystem of small & mid-sized companies anywhere in the world (yes, even still.  reports of the Bay Area's death are premature...)

Will VC money be there?  Yes.  Will it be as plentiful?  Of course not.  But, that's a good thing.  When VC's are rationing their funds the quality of the firmst they invest in is higher.  And therefore their returns are better **relative to the market**.  And VC firms draw limited partners by returning in excess of the market.

There will always be a market for venture capital investments, no matter how bad it's likely to get.  There will just be less dumb money pored in by clueless "funds of funds".
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July 31
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DebtsNMesses

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Investors, cash buyers, and some 1st time buyers are buying. It doesn't mean that this is the bottom, it means that many people are willing to take a further paper loss, figuring the market will recover to this point again in the future at some point.
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July 31
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space_acer

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 "By 99 any moron could get top-tier VC money"

as was said back then... "Too much money chasing too few good ideas".
There was an infusion of over 150B into starte-ups. Large share went into the BA.  So much of the hiring was external stimulation.  The tab of funds ended by 2001.   See PWCmoneytree.com.

Pre-98 we had pricing more in line with employee salaries from organic employer revenues.  

As we can see top tier VCs are no longer funding just SF Bay Area.. they have expanded. http://www.sequoiacap.com/people/
A move unseen before. 

We will see if we can grow the earth-shattering business/industries we once had in the 1980s.  
 



 

 
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July 31
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space_acer

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Spencer.. your MoM, QoQ..is great.  Keep up the good work!

PS.   

Please expand you charts to cover 25 years and not just 10 years.
The last 10 years were just an anomaly. 
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July 31
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space_acer

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Actually we had Biotech here before 1995.  Syntex which, which had a large campus,  was located in PA, near HP and Varian.  There were a few others, names escapes me!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syntex

 
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July 31
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, so any increase in median price since then is due to people buying increasingly larger houses as the summer progresses.

there are indications that higher end homes are under pressure from resets in prime loans and are hitting the market at higher discounts. 


 


 
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July 31
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silent_observer

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space dude, whether you like it or not many indicators are turning the "other way". this time it is not manipulated by realtors for REAL. it is manipulated by FED.

i want the stock market back to 7000 dow & S&P 500 to 700 but its gone. those who are dreaming that we'll hit 95 pricing will be like me waiting for march lows. it may happen if CRE blows up or option-arm bomb blasts and layoffs & cliff diving starts again. if the economy continues as it is we will *never* see that price (unless you create a time machine).
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July 31
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space_acer

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Oh! There is plenty of price manipulation and unethical practice by realtors in the Bay Area.  Talk about an unregulated industry. 

I bought into the S&P index in the 700s. Well, I do know how to pick'em , I used the prior S&P lows from 2002 and Im doing well! 

The South Bay has a long long way to go.

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html
 

 
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July 31
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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silent, have you been watching a little too much MSNBC news? seriously you think that this is a sustainable rally? the Fed is at ~0%, banks have recieved huge gift monies, foreclosures are at multi year lows(while dqs are at multi year highs) and the economy "only" shrank by 1% by today's gdp numbers. i dont know what qs 3-4 will look like, but q 2 of next year is pretty much a timebomb and everyone here knows it

anyone want to predict if the fed raises their prime rate before ~march 2010? most economists predict that they will "leave it" through the end of the year...
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July 31
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"it may happen if CRE blows up or option-arm bomb blasts and layoffs & cliff diving starts again."

You will see layoffs for months to come.  Cost cutting is a *itch, but its normal in Silicon Valley as the sun you see everyday.  The customers we service in many hard hit global industries, are'nt spending on capital goods like that of the 90s anytime soon.
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July 31
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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4 more banks failed today, 6 last week, so banks liquidity problems are still quite present. these green shoots have no foundation... i see tumbleweeds

'course i'm a couger now so i guess i should get used to it.
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July 31
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silent_observer

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nt, i was thinking till last month that this is another bear market rally (and still 50% of me thinks it is & the other 50% of me wishes it is because i am loaded in cash). anyways, i think the bottom is over or may be like roubini puts we'll see a W who knows. this rally beat all the bears anyone who was thinking that this is bear market rally is not talking anymore. FED rates are starting to take effect. my friend i quoted earlier paid $20K dollars more than asking and i was stunned WTF. they got fed up that they are outbid 4 times in a row and wanted a house badly. maybe my friends' circle is quiet well off. the recent trend in RE sales shows that there is demand. the recent trend in clunkers shows that there is demand and people are so gullible.

anyways, govt. debt increasing in MASSIVE amounts will definitely float this economy for few more years like it did for the last 20+years.
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July 31
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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well i'm still calling for deflation, even with the CPI bump last month, so cash isnt exactly the worst place to be.
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August 01
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Randy_H

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Valley VCs may invest a larger portion of their funds ex-Bay Area, much of that globally, today.  Given the shifts in sources of revenue, why is that anything to be concerned about?  If anything, that is an incredibly good thing for the BA.  Or would you rather have the world's tech/biotech/cleanteach industries being controlled by, oh, say Chinese investment?
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August 01
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look at what zillow say about the housing market: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0j_se3fGQY
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August 02
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silent_observer

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Niceone jrry. Its the same Spencer dude who posted earlier here!

I thought I'll post this CR link as well on the low-end bayarea investor activity page.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/investors-buying-low-end-foreclosures.html

Looks like investors are betting on to buy properties in bulk and want to sell them in 5 years to double their money :D! good luck.
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August 02
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silent_observer

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here is another data point to chew for this thread from diana olick  cnbc

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August 03
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i am really surprised that the sales for 500K - 1M range has fallen only 15%. may the bands are shifting as well. homes which were priced in $1M+ range has come down to $500K+ range and you can see the trend of downward shift by the price range.
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August 03
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Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

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10% of California mortgages are either in default, or in foreclosure.
We've had moratoriums on foreclosures, new California laws on foreclosures, new laws giving renters more time to leave foreclosures...
Obviously this all slows down supply, but it doesn't change the long run result. Meanwhile unemployment keeps creeping up, governments (state/local/county) keep slashing spending, heck a big bit of the state budget was balanced by cutting money from cities etc...

Nope, California is not out of the woods yet...
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August 03
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Wow! This graph is ugly and shows that the V is still "Catching falling knife"!!
read here for more details...
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August 06

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