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2 Big 2 Fail
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I love these bubble bloggers. They keep pushing back their housing market crash predictions. In 05, they said there would be massive price declines in 06. In 06, they said there would be massive price declines in 07. Now, as expected, they are saying that there will be massive price declines in 08....

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=512

September 13 2007 - US

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Justyn Kearney, "Justyn Kearney"
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Sounds like NAR

Goes to prove one can predict a lot but what happens no on knows

September 14 2007

klarek the realist
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I think it's because the reality of how hard-hitting and long-lasting this issue is, in addition to the stupidity and stubbornness of sellers, is finally obvious to all with open eyes.

September 14 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
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If you think sellers are "stubborn and stupid," then don't buy a house! Go buy a house from the K Hov firesale this weekend...

September 14 2007

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I think you have to take the delay in market crash predictions and look at it locally - the market the blogger covers specifically is the Bay Area. It's completely different than other areas in the rest of the country. If they made the same prediction for other areas, they would have been proven more correct, as other markets have seen price declines already - no sky is falling scenarios are true, though. Who knows if that will happen someday, or not.

Reminds me of what's going on in my area - San Diego and Riverside counties saw the correction much sooner than others. Now it's seeping into OC and LA as well.

I also agree with Justyn that you can predict all you want, but in reality, who knows what's going to happen.

But, I still don't think it makes the bubble blogger's two top arguments for a housing bubble less valid - house prices are completely disconnected from fundamental values, and the available credit was beyond anything we've seen before.

It's anybody's guess as to how this will play out.

September 14 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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its really quite simple: throughout history, buying a home has rarely cost much more than renting it. And I mean buying it the old fashioned way, 20% down, 30yr fixed rate. In fact, many times and places, buying has resulted in a lower monthly payment. I purchased 5 homes in phoenix that way during the late 80's and early 90's. Then in the last 5 years, prices skyrocketed while rents barely budged. It no longer made (and still doesn't make) any sense. I sold 3 of the homes, and paid the other 2 off with the bubble money.
Now inventory is skyrocketing, foreclosures are skyrocketing, and monthly sales are plunging, and credit is getting tighter. Did any of you realtor types, (OK full disclosure: i have my license too) ever understand economics? suppy and demand? The fact the bubble bloggers missed the precise top of the bubble does not mean they were incorrect in predicting the impending swandive of housing... stay tuned and keep watching!

September 14 2007

LongIslandBubble
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There already are massive price declines in many areas; you just don't know it yet because the houses haven't sold; but the Seller's are slowly starting to realize this as they cut their asking price 6 or more times without getting a bite.

Where I am, I've seen prices get reduced 20% or more and they still aren't selling.

Houses don't sell overnight; they take a couple of months. When houses are sitting around for 6 or more months (which they are) and inventories increase dramatically (which they have) along with foreclosures (them too) it is only logical to assume that prices have already fallen.

When the smoke clears (inventories and foreclosures normalize) you will realize the actual price declines as actual sales after the easy credit that enabled people to make such foolish purchases disappears completely, making it impossible and/or impractical (compared to renting) to pay those inflated prices.

No one can predict the exact fall of the housing market even on a local basis because there is no telling how far the sheeple psyche can overextend him/her self; but now that the easy credit has dried up and the news if finally hitting the media, it is safe to assume we are there right now.

The crash is just beginning; hold on tight because it is going to get really bad as we head into a severe recession, worse than anyone in our generation has ever experienced; and while the Sellers aren?t going to like the 2007 prices this year, next year they?ll be crying for them.

September 14 2007

lkbryant
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"The crash is just beginning; hold on tight because it is going to get really bad as we head into a severe recession, worse than anyone in our generation has ever experienced; "

LMAO.

Typical renter....

September 14 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"

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Prior post: "I think you have to take the delay in market crash predictions and look at it locally - the market the blogger covers specifically is the Bay Area. It's completely different than other areas in the rest of the country. If they made the same prediction for other areas, they would have been proven more correct, as other markets have seen price declines already - no sky is falling scenarios are true, though. Who knows if that will happen someday, or not."

Well if I'd have done a lot better last year if I'd picked a different team last instead of the Raiders! :-)

September 14 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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axrob00 wrote: "its really quite simple: throughout history, buying a home has rarely cost much more than renting it. And I mean buying it the old fashioned way, 20% down, 30yr fixed rate. In fact, many times and places, buying has resulted in a lower monthly payment. I purchased 5 homes in phoenix that way during the late 80's and early 90's."

That hasn't been true in Seattle for a long time, if ever. I bought a condo (20% down) in 1978 and a friend asked why I did it, because the monthly payments were so expensive. That was for a condo!

Only within the past few years has buying been relatively close to renting.

September 14 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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LongIslandBubble wrote: "There already are massive price declines in many areas; you just don't know it yet because the houses haven't sold; but the Seller's are slowly starting to realize this as they cut their asking price 6 or more times without getting a bite."

You can't tell anything by asking price and reductions in asking price. I know an area here where just about everything of the type had an asking price well above what houses of the type had ever sold for. That generated lots of price reductions an not sales for four months. Within the same area, however, a different type of house priced properly had a healthy market, with low number of active listings, short times on market, etc.

The simple fact is houses can be overpriced, and their prices being reduced can only mean that they were overpriced. It's not necessarily a reflection on the market.

September 14 2007

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The Bloggers on Patrick.net are some smart people (and even know a lot about sushi). Sorry if things are slow at the open house Apline.

September 14 2007

lkbryant
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house is a long term money generating machine. that's why it's worth it to pay more than renting IF you can afford it.

September 14 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
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"The Bloggers on Patrick.net are some smart people"

Very funny. The bloggers on that site told me they want social security and unemployment insurance to be eliminated. They do not know anything about what they talk about.

September 14 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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"long term money generating machine"

well, that is if you don't buy them and go high negative cash flow!!!

you guys are hilarious on here; never a fact or a piece of analysis just the "they aren't making any more land" and "your paying your landlords mortage"

I Have a bet that proves you are full of nonsense:

I will sell you my rental condo, 540 N May #3138 Mesa AZ for $155000.00 3br2ba do your own comps that is under comparable sales or an appraisal today. 2 miles to asu, rents 900-950 a month. 20% down and I will finance you myself at 6% for five years... ( I own it outright)

If its such a great time to buy, step up! thats below any other listing for that size condo, and your getting zero points and fees on the loan, hell I wont verify income or anything!

September 15 2007

lkbryant
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i'll buy that in an instant, but AZ is just not my kind of city. too hot over there. =)

September 15 2007

Jarrod Chambers, "Gallo de fuego"
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Jarrod Chambers, "Gallo de fuego"

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AZrobOO,

There are comps in that Appt. complex that have recently sold for under $100K. and price per sqaure foot around $93.

For an investor or a buyer to truly look at that, it would need to be priced around $115,000 starting. A payment on $155K is over a thousand a month b4 taxes and insurance.

September 15 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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which comp sold for $93 a square foot??? does everyone on this board just make things up? The under $100k sale is 687 square foot (1 bedroom)
mine is 1306 sq foot(3bedrooms)... Jarrod Chambers is that an example of your expert real estate abiliity??

But ironically, you just proved my point! Now is still a terrible time to buy!!!

September 15 2007

LongIslandBubble
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Krismer wrote: The simple fact is houses can be overpriced, and their prices being reduced can only mean that they were overpriced. It's not necessarily a reflection on the market.

Thank you! You are helping me prove my point! Many of those prices (before the reductions) were based on comp values of six months to a year (or more). What this means is that prices have fallen at least that much; and I say at least that much because they STILL haven't sold. I have seen houses that were listed for $500k on mls get reduced to $400k or less (after several reductions) and they are STILL sitting.

I have also noticed houses that have sold for more just a year or two ago (according to domania), but now they are back on the market for LESS and they STILL haven't sold!

Example:

mls#1981195
711 Arlington Ave, Baldwin, NY
-4.86% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $333k as of 08/22/2007
Asking Price $350k as of 07/17/2007
Previously Sold in 2004 for $410k
http://tinyurl.com/ywno6g

Of course I do realize I am arguing with a real estate agent who will always defend his trade till death.

Right now there are over 12,000 families on Long Island that are in pre-foreclosure! Do you think this is normal? Do you think that maybe, just maybe if the realtors would have warned their clients by telling them that the value of their house can go down and quite a bit and that due to their unprecedented rise, it is the most likely scenario; do you think many of these people wouldn?t be in the position they are now in?

I bet if I were to contact all those families who are in pre-foreclosure and the thousands more who have already lost their house to foreclosure and gather them into a wide open area; take a bunch of realtors and put t-shirts on each of them that read REALTOR on the front and ?Now is the time to buy!? in bright lettering on the back, I bet you will never see those realtors again.

September 15 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
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$93 a square foot? I am calling BS. In NYC, the average prices is $1,200 a square foot, whith new construction over $2,000 a square foot.

September 15 2007

Toni Stromnes, "Selling Oakdale"
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see there, we californian's have nowhere to go but up. "It's a great time to buy!"

September 15 2007

sunnyview
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The market will not really "fall" until interest rates are higher or until people have to bail out of their overpriced homes due to short sales or foreclosures. The market is still overpriced, but selling in some areas and will continue until the Fed stops lowering rates to forestall the coming problems in the market.

That is why there is so much pressure on the Fed to lower rates again to allow the stupid flippers and specialty loan victims to refinance. If that doesn't happen, then the market will fall after the election in 2008 or there will be another terrorist attack to blame for the recession.

September 15 2007

Jarrod Chambers, "Gallo de fuego"
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azrobOO,
dont' even spout off. You had a 2/2 sell in the same complex for $95K within the last two months. Your price is too high. You also need to check the recently solds and square footages.

Alpine, We are not in NYC. Thank God, you can keep Hillary and all that comes with it.

September 15 2007

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"Very funny. The bloggers on that site told me they want social security and unemployment insurance to be eliminated. They do not know anything about what they talk about. "

You must be in pretty good company!

September 15 2007

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Hey now Jarrod LOL

September 15 2007

lkbryant
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real estate will always be the safest return on investment method.

September 15 2007

CORONA NICK
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Jack... only if you live in your investment....

September 15 2007

lkbryant
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exactly

September 15 2007

lkbryant
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which is why you never lose if you buy a house. and live it there.

September 15 2007

CORONA NICK
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bubble or not?

September 16 2007

Callista, "warriorprincess"
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"we californian's have nowhere to go but up."

What a complete and utter joke!! More like; we are likely to become the foreclosure caiptal of the USA. For every two houses in sacto that sell, another goes into foreclosure.

I love this one from Sunnyview also..

"The market will not really "fall" until interest rates are higher or until people have to bail out of their overpriced homes due to short sales or foreclosures"

Hmmmm...anyone notice any foreclosures or short sales in their neighborhood lately? I could throw a rock out my window and hit three!

September 16 2007

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