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All the economist's reports that I have read, with the exception of NAR's own Yun, have forecasted without any wavering that house prices will continue to go down and likely will go down another 20-30% in many, many areas. If you are or could be in the future in one of those many, many areas, I would not buy a house for more than 30% less than today's (not yesterday's) comps. You will soon have a hoard of homes to choose from, so don't jump in for more than what the house will be worth a few years from now. If you do, you could be in the same position that many are in now of having negative equity in thier home. Remember that having knowledge doesn't insure someone will make good decisions. You must couple that knowledge with wisdom. And with knowledge and wisdom--sometimes you must call in the third factor--restraint.
It really matters where you are. Not all areas will be huge price declines, only 6 hard hit bubble states will, like Florida and California.
"You know, the states where most of the people live."
Want to come and say that here in NYC? Population 8.5 million... Or how about in NJ, the most densley populated state in the country.
Zillow the home. Look at the 10 year growth chart. Whatever it was priced 10 years ago, multiply that by 1.6. That should give you a fair estimate of what normal price growth looks like.
No, you multiply it by 2. Homes traditionally double every 10 years, even when there is no bubble.
If you "multiply it by 2" as suggested to you by another, you will be a very unhappy camper after the housing market fully adjusts.
Every region of the country varies in yearly appreciation, but the majority fall between 3-5%. And there are far more regions that are below the 3% mark than above the 5% mark.
BuyEqualsRent is correct for the most generously appreciating communities. Here's an example:
Sale in 1999 for $100k with 3% yearly compounded appreciation = $134,392 in 2008.
Sale in 1999 for $100k with 5% yearly compounded appreciation = $164,889 in 2008.
CrazyCaseys, use this appreciation calculator with prior, non-bubble sales prices to determine more accurately what the house should sale for when the market is adjusted:
http://www.longislandbubble.com/bubblomics.html#estimator
A buyer's market doesn't always = the best buyer's market.
No, you multiply it by 2. Homes traditionally double every 10 years, even when there is no bubble.
Alpine, you mean like this:
Built and sold 2000, $268,733
Sold May 17 2002 $212,500
Sold May 28 2002 $265,300
Sold June 2006 $640,000
Sold Aug 2007 $543,953
Sold Jan 2008
No, you multiply it by 2. Homes traditionally double every 10 years, even when there is no bubble.
Alpine, you mean like this:
Built and sold 2000, $268,733
Sold May 17 2002 $212,500
Sold May 28 2002 $265,300
Sold June 2006 $640,000
Sold Aug 2007 $543,953
Sold Jan 2008
No, you multiply it by 2. Homes traditionally double every 10 years, even when there is no bubble.
Alpine, you mean like this:
Built and sold 2000, $268,733
Sold May 17 2002 $212,500
Sold May 28 2002 $265,300
Sold June 2006 $640,000
Sold Aug 2007 $543,953
Sold Jan 2008
... and, it's free and anonymous
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Buyers market-How much to offer
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I am buying in an area that is considered a 'buyers market'. I see a house on the market that I really like but it is about 20000 out of reach. When looking at comp values in the area I have noticed that they are asking about 10000 to 15000 more than comp. How much should I offer?
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