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Answers (13)
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25127
I would tend to agree with SFSacForeclosure's analysis. I think that the market will go up a bit in Sacramento, but will not recover to previous highs on a bounce. Values will build slowly as the job market and larger economy improves, but interest rates will be a factor in values if they rise before the economy is ready.
- James Tan, "Bethany Real Estate"
- Contributions:10
Chris is right. The unemployment in greater Sacramento will continue to lag because the economy here is highly dependent on the government sector (city, county, state, school districts, fire districts, etc. ). The government will continue to shrink, because of the declining property values and the slow economy.
Prices at the mid and high end will continue to be soft for some time. You should check the statistics on trulia for the median prices of a particular zipcode say 95757, etc. They have a lot of useful up-to-date statistics.
However, having said that, prices at the bottom end of the market, i.e. sub $50k single family homes, have been quite firm. There is a lot of investor demand at this level. There is also strong investor demand at the sub $100k level. Even in the $200k price range, there has been a lot of activity, (both from home buyers, or investors) especially in good areas in elk grove such as Stonelake.
Today, in sacramento, it is quite difficult to find sub $50k decent 3 bed/2 bath homes, this was not true 1-2 years ago.
So, there are different market tiers with different supply/demand situations.
Another note is that Sacramento has always lagged the Bay Area.
This has been true in the last 3 real estate recessions in California.
In the Bay Area, particularly the high tech economy in the Peninsula and South Bay, is very good. The unemployment rate is < 10%. Restaurants and malls are very busy.
So, when the Bay Area has recovered, it will be a few years before Sacramento recovers. And do not expect the $200k home to become $600k again any time soon.
Prices at the mid and high end will continue to be soft for some time. You should check the statistics on trulia for the median prices of a particular zipcode say 95757, etc. They have a lot of useful up-to-date statistics.
However, having said that, prices at the bottom end of the market, i.e. sub $50k single family homes, have been quite firm. There is a lot of investor demand at this level. There is also strong investor demand at the sub $100k level. Even in the $200k price range, there has been a lot of activity, (both from home buyers, or investors) especially in good areas in elk grove such as Stonelake.
Today, in sacramento, it is quite difficult to find sub $50k decent 3 bed/2 bath homes, this was not true 1-2 years ago.
So, there are different market tiers with different supply/demand situations.
Another note is that Sacramento has always lagged the Bay Area.
This has been true in the last 3 real estate recessions in California.
In the Bay Area, particularly the high tech economy in the Peninsula and South Bay, is very good. The unemployment rate is < 10%. Restaurants and malls are very busy.
So, when the Bay Area has recovered, it will be a few years before Sacramento recovers. And do not expect the $200k home to become $600k again any time soon.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25127
Cape Cod is long way from Elk Grove. That's an apples and aliens comparison in my book literally and figuratively.
- Brian Greer, "BrianGreer"
- Contributions:5
I know on Cape Cod we are look forward at a slight decline in the spring but overall home prices have remained steady this past year or so. Small decline.
- Connie Wildasinn, "Connie Wildasin"
- Contributions:1178
no to any time soon... some time after 2012-15 is a possible...I kept thinking 2012 would be the bottom... but heck no bottom in sight from what the economy is doing and consumer confidence... you won't really know until you look in the rear view mirror...
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25127
No. Prices in Elk Grove will not rise any time soon. The area was a haven for people looking for a cheaper alternative housing to near Sacramento. It was overbuilt, much of EG is built on a flood plain and there is continuing erosion to prices by with REO's and short sales. It will be a long haul.
- Chris Medina, "Team Medina"
- Contributions:61
This is a great question and one that I get asked all the time. There are a few problems with our market in Elk Grove/Sacramento area. We don't have a lot of industry in the area so job growth is really slow or non-existent. The number one employer in the area is government (Federal, State, County) and with furloughs, hiring freezes, lay-offs, etc. our community is suffering.
Currently unemployment in the area is about 12%, which limits who can buy and is affecting current homeowners and putting more homes on the market as short sales and foreclosures.
We have such a large inventory of homes on the market (with A LOT more on the way) in areas like Elk Grove and limited amount of buyers its simple supply and demand. Until we see the unemployment numbers for our area get better we probably won't see a true housing recovery in our area for a while.
Currently unemployment in the area is about 12%, which limits who can buy and is affecting current homeowners and putting more homes on the market as short sales and foreclosures.
We have such a large inventory of homes on the market (with A LOT more on the way) in areas like Elk Grove and limited amount of buyers its simple supply and demand. Until we see the unemployment numbers for our area get better we probably won't see a true housing recovery in our area for a while.
- Helen Edwards, "Helen Edwards"
- Contributions:478
Micalbee...
David's answer is so true. Supply and demand. In our area buyers or investors are picking up great deals, thus driving up prices as less to choose from. Personally I think we're on the way up!
David's answer is so true. Supply and demand. In our area buyers or investors are picking up great deals, thus driving up prices as less to choose from. Personally I think we're on the way up!
- David D'Onofrio, "DavidReMaxRealtor"
- Contributions:57
As a Realtor, I would like to be optimistic about a market recovery, if even a slow one. As someone with an economics background, I have to go back to ECON 101 and say: "supply and demand."
The market was flooded with homes due to foreclosure, and home prices dropped. Which caused homes to be underwater on their mortgages, and rising costs of living caused additional short sales, further depressing prices.... and so on.
Now, where I am in Palm Beach County, home prices were obliterated over the past few years, back to nearly 2002, and in some cases, 1990's prices. Investment buyers are coming here in force, where the average condo price is $88,000.
The MLS is showing more contingent and pending sales right now than new listings coming on the market. There is an obvious rising demand for buying undervalued property, and that decreases the supply, which increases the prices.
After money is redirected towards the most undervalued regions, the prices there will rise, and the circle for rebounding prices will spread, hopefully taking industry with it as people spend money on renovating their new homes.
Rentals are starting to get expensive here as well. If people have credit and can make a down payment, they're finding that rental rates aren't that different from a mortgage payment. Supply and demand, and so on....
Thanks for asking!
The market was flooded with homes due to foreclosure, and home prices dropped. Which caused homes to be underwater on their mortgages, and rising costs of living caused additional short sales, further depressing prices.... and so on.
Now, where I am in Palm Beach County, home prices were obliterated over the past few years, back to nearly 2002, and in some cases, 1990's prices. Investment buyers are coming here in force, where the average condo price is $88,000.
The MLS is showing more contingent and pending sales right now than new listings coming on the market. There is an obvious rising demand for buying undervalued property, and that decreases the supply, which increases the prices.
After money is redirected towards the most undervalued regions, the prices there will rise, and the circle for rebounding prices will spread, hopefully taking industry with it as people spend money on renovating their new homes.
Rentals are starting to get expensive here as well. If people have credit and can make a down payment, they're finding that rental rates aren't that different from a mortgage payment. Supply and demand, and so on....
Thanks for asking!
- Grant Hammond, ABR, "GrantHammond"
- Contributions:61
Locally, there will certainly be price increases within the performing micro-markets, but nationally, there will not be an average price increase for years.
- shasta_steve
- Contributions:448
I live basically a stones throw from Elk Grove. I would not expect a huge gain anytime soon and will not get up to 2006 levels in many many years. My thinking is it might even fall a little more and basically stay about the same until the economy starts to improve. We have lots of foreclosures still. I don't think we will see any more huge drops unless the cost to rent decreases dramatically. Many of the houses are selling for about 10 times annual rent and that looks pretty good for investors, especially with the low interest rates. While prices have been soft I am seeing lots a activity around the houses in my neighborhood. Most of the houses I see staying on the market are short sales.
- brad606
- Contributions:31
Depends on where you're talking about of course. But no I don't expect nationwide prices to rise for years. I could be happy go lucky and say 1 year, but everyone _always_ seems to think the turnaround is a year away. I think it's longer than that.
The composite Case-Shiller index is currently around 140 (Jan '11). This puppy needs to be near 100. That's still 25% more in declines to go.
Government programs that tried to keep prices from falling (homebuyer credits, foreclosure prevention, etc) have basically all ended or pretty much didn't work as expected.
Japan's home values have been declining for 20 years. It can happen.
The composite Case-Shiller index is currently around 140 (Jan '11). This puppy needs to be near 100. That's still 25% more in declines to go.
Government programs that tried to keep prices from falling (homebuyer credits, foreclosure prevention, etc) have basically all ended or pretty much didn't work as expected.
Japan's home values have been declining for 20 years. It can happen.
- theTroll
- Contributions:7
No,
expect slight fall the rest of this year and then stable prices.
expect slight fall the rest of this year and then stable prices.
Do you anticipate home prices to rise any time soon. Within the next couple of years?
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