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(EX) DOOMERS ARE BUYING!

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Silent_Observer, Walt and many other ex-doomers recently purchased their homes! The next one I hope will be 3GirlsVA.

This is a good sign.
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June 16 2008 - US

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Profile picture for Randy_H
Contributions: 4390

Hey, I just dodged the bullet.  I bought, then canceled the contract a few hours later due to a lucky coincidence.

 

Guess what?  That home, which I was convinced was easily well priced, has dropped another $220K and still hasn't sold.

 

C'mon Amerisave.  Do your NPV on how much money I came within a hair of pissing away.  Hint:  It's _not_ $220K.  C'mon.  Everyone says "but if you're in it for the long term".  Well, let's think long-term.  Assume 10 years.  Assume I'm paying property taxes @ 1.4% and interest on $220K more than if I bought today, a big whopping 7 weeks later.

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June 16 2008
Profile picture for silent_observer

randy, in highend areas the correction is happening and it is accelerating now. in many areas mid-level areas it is getting closer to bottom. if we don't see big alt-a or option-arm wave this could become the bottom.

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June 16 2008
Profile picture for Randy_H
Contributions: 4390
Hmmm. I highly doubt it. Many mid-level areas on the Peninsula have corrected far less than here in "high end" southern Marin. My old Redwood City neighborhood is still stubbornly sitting there with the same asking prices as 2 years ago with scant any movement. But here I've a small but growing number of 15-20% price reductions in order to get homes to sell. Often that's $300K+.

Do you realize that now you can buy a 3/2 home in Southern Marin for only slightly more than you can buy a 3/2 with _less_ sqft in western Redwood City? That doesn't sound like we're lagging the mid-level areas at all.

About 2 years ago I wrote a blog article on Patrick & on my own blog with a model that predicted that high-end and low-end would lead the market in the Bay Area, and mid-level areas would correct later. I still hold that model is bearing out with observed data. The model is based upon basic price stickiness: in lower end neighborhoods prices unstick because people are forced out by foreclosures, and then REOs set the market price after a while. In higher end neighborhoods people have more tolerance for accepting price cuts and can employ methods to shield, hedge or offset their "losses", such as executive relocation assistance (I know more than a couple of folks who got these deals in the past year or so), tax shields, and financial advisors/wealth planners. Mid-level folks usually have some but not much savings and therefore can't afford to take much haircut but can (and feel they must) hold out the longest on price.
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June 16 2008
Profile picture for whataboutmycrib

Sorry Amerisave, we are fence sitting until summer 2009.  If rent=buy perhaps I may buy.....hey that rhymes, neat slogan.  

I hosted a tea party for a group os students from my dd's kindergarten class......the moms came and they all know that we rent, I have never discussed details except that we weren't ready to buy a house since we had yet to sell the other one.  Anyway, one of the moms is a PT REA, she is amazed at how nice my house is.......I told her that I am enjoying the break in home ownership, then later on the ladies are talking about some people buying nice houses and letting the lawn care go to heck, then the one asks me and I state that "lawn care is included in our rent, we don't do anything to the house" and they are amazed, then the REA mom inquires  

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June 17 2008
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ooops,

 

Inquires

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June 17 2008

I think the smart money still sits on the sidelines. At least until the tail end of the foreclosure wave is over.

 

 

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for whataboutmycrib

......as to how much I pay for rent, I tell her and then explain to her that in just one year of renting I have saved $25K by not buying and she is shaking her head yes.   She tells me that her house is underwater cause the neighbor can't seem to sell their 1.2 million house for $750K......sucks, but what can you do.....I so wanted to blurt out "hand the keys back".  HA HA.   She started talking about regretting buying the move up house and how much work it is.......HA HA HA HA.   There is a deep level of satisfaction when several women can say that "you are in the best possible position to be in by renting".    It seems so strange.  

 

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for Spec_T
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 2849

  it seems that the upper middle devaluation is finally accelerating.  Here in FL that means the homes that are about 1 1/2 times median and up to about 3 times median price(450- 700k).   On the other hand the starters ( 150k )  have been flat for months.

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June 17 2008
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waitingitout

Springfield, VA

Contributions: 311

3girls is in Northern Virgina which for the most parts isn't through the free dive.  We're waiting to buy too -  too many foreclosures hitting in our area to keep values steady.     We sold this June and now our poor buyers have 2 foreclosures & several more coming in the neighborhood.   Sorry for them but we just got out of the market in time :)

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June 17 2008
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waitingitout

Springfield, VA

Contributions: 311

3girlsVA - you are very smart for staying in that sweet deal - lot of people wish they had it as good as you!  We currently rent too and are so happy with our decision but we're not saving as much $$ as you!!

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for g6t6o
Contributions: 152

We just bought here in CA for well under 2001 pricing, not sure how much lower it can go in this area...

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for Randy_H
Contributions: 4390
Not in the Bay Area you didn't, unless you bought in East Palo Alto. If you're talking about the Inland Empire, then I'll believe it. But your icon implies otherwise.
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June 17 2008
Profile picture for g6t6o
Contributions: 152

Oh no, haha that is just an image I grabbed from the computer, one of the pictures pre-loaded on the computer;)

 

I'm in the central valley

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June 17 2008
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Contributions: 4390
:)
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June 17 2008
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6647
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A doomer buying is not anything special.  Fact is that some houses in my area are listed at over 70% LESS than they sold for a few years ago.  I understand that appeal.  But I personally am not there yet.

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for dozer95662

A doomer buying and admitting it is special and interesting.  

 

Nobody expects the die hard schiller disciple guys like azrob or spleng to ever let off the gas with their message (armageddon or bust), but when an agnostic semi-doomer like 6gt60 or silent observer goes ahead and takes the plunge it is very interesting indeed.

 

Klarek I would be very interested to see an address or two of homes at 70% off peak that are not complete teardowns.   Would you post them I'm interested.  Is your area Calif?

 

 

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for Randy_H
Contributions: 4390
What does Johann Christoph Friedrich von Schiller have to do with this? Azrob, I always took you for more a fan of Goethe.
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June 17 2008
Profile picture for g6t6o
Contributions: 152

We haven't seen 70% in my area of CA, the house I bought was 55% less then last sales price.  610K in 2006, 269K now.

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for azrob
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Randy:

 

I Like Goethe just fine, but I have a problem with Faust part 1... namely the following:

 

A highly respected, well off intellectual (Faust) should not need a pact with the devil signed in blood to seduce a virtuous young fraulein. A six pack and a couple of good one liners is about all it takes! You can take my word on this one!!

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for CORONA NICK
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Since October 2009

RENT = BUY

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for whataboutmycrib

Yes Corona Nick, it boils down that lovely equation. 

 

For rent=buy in my area, the house I rent and those around me would have to be priced at $300K........this house would have sold for that in 2001.........we are already at 3rd quarter 2003 prices in many pockets here in Northern VA.  Right now the highest price in my hood is $575K and the lowest is a REO at $379K that no one seems to be willing to buy.   If that REO goes to $300K I am snapping it up.......it is like that cashmere sweater going on sale, when it gets to the right price and is still available I will buy it :-)   

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for DebtsNMesses
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Pls review your doomer dictionary. I bought and am still a doomer.

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for whataboutmycrib

Yup Debts, your pantry proves it :-) 

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6647
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"Pls review your doomer dictionary. I bought and am still a doomer."

 

As will I after I buy.  Owning and seeing the market for what it is are not mutually exclusive.  Being that I am a renter now, I have the choice of deciding when to join the pack and see where this market takes us.    Not there yet.  Maybe towards the end of summer.  Maybe.

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for Gingerhairedgirl

Like 3girls, my spouse and I packed away a little more than $25k during two years of renting. We're currently in escrow to purchase, because we're a lot more worried about gas prices than housing prices. Renting out in the boondocks isn't cutting it anymore, so we're buying in a nice first-ring suburb with excellent access to public transportation. The area has been very stable in the midst of the RE upheaval, and while I don't expect values to rise anytime soon, I do expect that the downward pressure will be mitigated as others also come to the conclusion that exurban living is an expensive luxury for those who have to commute.

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for space_acer
Contributions: 4346
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Since March 2009

Klarek I would be very interested to see an address or two of homes at 70% off peak that are not complete teardowns.

 

REO in Los Gatos... over 50% decline...

http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=19665974

 

And another one...

 

http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=19790282

 

Sale History
02/22/2008: $1,600,000
10/25/2007: $1,900,000
06/03/2005: $3,000,000

05/03/1993: $865,000

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for Mark75NYC
Contributions: 1331

I am a "doomer" (a.k.a. realist) and I held my nose and bought back in 2002, and still own.  As others have said, being a doomer and owning a home aren't mutually exclusive.

 

I'll buy again at some point, when it's not financial suicide to do so.

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for Pasadenan
Contributions: 6661
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Since January 2009

Of course "doomers" are buying like everyone else ---

food, gasoline....

 

But they are watching their bottom line closer and the comparative pricing...

 

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for SoCal BubbleBrain

I am buying allright. having a good time buying HELOC stuff from craigslist! I just bought

a clean 2005 Nissan Maxima for 11G for my wife from some guy that was in FC. I also recently picked up a nice stainless steel grill for me. The guy originally paid 2k and I got it from him for 400. Soon I hope to buy a rental at 2000 price range. Coming soon.

 

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June 17 2008
Profile picture for DebtsNMesses
Contributions: 6641
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It's a great time to buy quads, motorcycles, trucks, jeeps and motorhomes, too!

 

OK all, I admit it. I bought my house cuz I just wanted the permanent storage!!!!

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June 17 2008

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