Economists see the recession ending. What do you think?

Winston Churchill reportedly said, "If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions." The Wall Street Journal polled 52 economists, and 47 found the time to write back. Seems there is beginning to be some optimism about the economy. 27 of the economists said the recession had ended and 11 seeing a trough this month or next.

Personally, my family is still feeling the recession. I'm not making or spending more money today than I have any other month this this year. Of course, I'm not sure I ever spent less, just switched from cash to credit cards. My friends who are laid off or have had their hours reduced aren't being called back to work. Most people I know actually have been and still are spending less and trying to save more.

Do you think the economic recession is over?
  • August 13 2009 - San Francisco
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Answers (12)

Technically, the recession may have ended, or be ending right about now. However, put the champagne away, that merely means things have quit getting worse. They can stay at the exact same level of terrible, without getting any better, and the recession ends.

we have a trillion plus dollars of stimulus, and guarantees on everything from car loans, car manufacturers, home loans, banks, etc. So, it really isn't a surprise with this tremendous government backstop, the slide may stop. However, a weak recovery say 1% gdp growth a year, while ending the "recession" is a very poor performance given the amount of fiscal support shoveled out by the government. These supports will need to be removed, due to the now very serious risk of currency problems (ie argentina etc) and removing them could lead to a decade of stagnation, or a two dip recession starting in another year or two.
  • August 13 2009
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I wouldn't be shocked to see another dip. No matter how level things become, we have spent a ton of money and are still operating with net job losses.
  • August 13 2009
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It ain't over until my wallets fat again and I'm not worrying about my job. The 47 economists replied to the survey are probably trying to land a back-up job and the 5 who didn't reply at all probably already lost their job.
  • August 13 2009
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Government Media Propaganda.

Unemployment is increasing.

Home prices (in general nationwide) are falling.

A new wave of Foreclosures is on the horizon.

Shadow Listings will soon flood the market.

The National Debt is not increasing by Billions, it is increasing by Trillions.

The Obama "Hope" has turned into an utter and total failure - his approval ratings are under 50% in all polls, and dropping.

Look around your town at the factories, companies, restaurants, stores, shopping malls, private businesses, etc. that are shutting down and going under.  Visit your County Courthouse every weekday to watch the Foreclosure and Tax Auctions.  See for yourself if "the recession is over".

Best wishes to you,
  Fred
  • August 13 2009
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Sucker's rally.
  • August 14 2009
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Technically speaking, the recession might be ending because GDP might no longer be declining. But practically speaking, the recession is still far from over because people are still losing their jobs and unemployment keeps growing. I think we're still a year out from a true economic recovery.
  • August 14 2009
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The same economists who denied that a recession is coming while we were already 1 year into it?  What do you think?

Don't read only the mainstream media.  Search far and wide on the internet for real news.  Look at it from all angles and then make up your own mind.  Obama quadrupled the deficit, who do you think are going to have to pay back that money?

Optimism isn't going to pull the country out of this depression.  Optimism is the reason that the country got into this depression!!  People were getting so giddy they were buying 2 - 3 houses at a time.  People were getting so confident they take the equity out of their houses to spend and bank on the "experts' prediction that house prices would keep rising".  But there wasn't enough optimism to overcome "reality".

Just look at reality.  2 yrs ago no one could fathom that houses would lose half of their values in any area.  Very few people were looking at the Japanese's market that was still in the slump after 15 yrs and everyone thought those people were nuts.

Now, we don't even remember those warnings and we're already asking if the recession is ending and we're back to happy times soon.  What are we doing to really improve the economy?  "Cash for Clunkers"??  Stimulus??  How many of you feel the effect of all that cash except for the big fat bonuses wall street is getting?

Even if we are going to reach the bottom soon, it's going to take a long time to dig out of this one.  Unless they pull a miracle and put us inside a bigger bubble.  If that bigger bubble ever materialize and eventually bust, many people are going to have to get on boats to brave the sea and try to apply for hard labor jobs in China.

  • August 14 2009
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they didn't see the recession coming either. college degree in stats means you can guess professionally, that's all.
  • August 14 2009
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It's not over, with over 9% unemployment....and rising. Buyers in the $700k and below range are eager to purchase and face a lot of competition because there is lower inventory. But that does not mean the recession is over. We have evidence of inflation at the Supermarket, the gas pump etc.
Will some prosper in this economy? YES! Challenge = opportunity to prosper. Because someone has a problem and if you can fix it you can profit.
  • August 14 2009
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"Evidence of inflation" at......??  The lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve Bank, has created a trillion dollars of new money, and this huge expansion is within a falling economy where domestic production is at a stand-still.  The coming wave of inflation created by all that new money chasing a shrinking supply of consumables will make today's prices seem cheap and the value of fixed-dollar investments will tank.

The lunacy of spending-yourself-rich, what we and government are doing and have been doing for decades, is simply that...lunacy.  Mainstream "financial experts" seem to be leading the charge of the escapees from the sanitariums.

A recovery now occurring?  Not a snowball's chance in you-know-where! 
  • August 15 2009
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I would like to take this opportunity to invite all Americans to assemble and pressure their local and state legislatures to put forward new city ordinances, state and hopefully federal laws prohibitingreal estate property transactions bellow the home building cost. Because severely under priced bank owned properties are not only driving home values down into negative equity putting on financial burden to homeowners but also is contributing to the increasing unemployment rate. While the financial sector is caching out and allowing bonuses to their executives the construction sector is bankrupt putting a lot of people out of work while homeowners live in fear knowing that they own more on their houses than what the properties are valued in these foreclosure drive markets as a result spending remains down affecting all sectors of the economy and blocking economic growth also because nobody is in position to access their home equity to start new business or making new investments. Housing markets shall be stabilized now before is too late, the current measures are not working. If overpriced properties create the mortgage bubble that let us into a recession ridiculously under priced houses will let us into a deep depression soon if this vicious cycle continues.
  • August 15 2009
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If the economy was overheated or freeze then yes, we need the government's intervention. But our economy will recover very soon, I don't think its good idea for the government intervening too deep into the market,  at the normal time let the market correct itself (now its normal time in my view).
And the government is never set the prices on any market, Its hurt only to our economy in the long run (I was lived in the communist country long ago, I known very good about that).
Maybe CA's lawmakers (many of them are the democrat) had their view, which is different from my view, their view is for socially, my view is for the long run of economy, which is "supply and demand".
  • August 16 2009
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