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FED is lowering rates? Don't count on it for longterm.

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Aldreth
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""In a separate interview with USA Today, Greenspan said the Federal Reserve would have to raise interest rates to double-digit levels in coming years to thwart inflation.""

---Sounds about right to me. If they do lower the rate, it will be very short lived.

September 17 2007 - US

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chuckdog24
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I'd say that this thread title is very pertainent to the topics being discussed here. Sure Greenspan is promoting a book but are his opinions (read: ability to speak freely now that he's retired) meaningless? I'd say not. Greenspan has been vilified for "poisoning the punch" of this housing mess (to which I agree) & I for one am interested in what he has to say in defense of his term as well as the current turmoil.

Irresponsible, over capitalistic types like Jim Cramer insist that (and forgive me for paraphrasing):
1) The Fed has no idea about the martket & that they MUST cut rates to resolve "armagedon" as he called it.
2) Owners in over their heads in homes with little equity should default on their loans.

Do we all as individuals fully understand the complex economic balance required to keep inflation under control? I certainly don't but have come to believe as others have to do/believe 180 degrees of what Cramer does/believes. Oh, I listen to real economists to find a middle ground. Did Greenspan study economics perhaps...

September 17 2007

lkbryant
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no one knows the future. that book is as good as a science fiction book.

September 17 2007

chuckdog24
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lkb, don't you find that to be a defeatist position regarding understanding the current market? Ignore his historical recallections & current analyis because "no one knows the future"?

September 17 2007

ghennis00
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aldreth, it will be short lived indeed, eventually the bond markets are gonna slap em and its going to take rates of 18% or higher to get the job done just like Volcker did. I think Gspan is being very conservative.

September 17 2007

fat HOMER SIMPSONS ANGRY BITTER RENTER, "FlipofftheFlipper"
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fat HOMER SIMPSONS ANGRY BITTER RENTER, "FlipofftheFlipper"

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Sell Dollar and buy RMB?

September 17 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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You know I have been thinking about this alot...

I have my homes paid off, but i was thinking of cashing out with 30yr fixed loans, 70%ltv or whatever on all of them, and just tossing the money in online banks. If the loans come out to say 6.5% and the online bank pays 5.5%, then I just lose 1% on the total amount. Interest against rentals writes off against income from the rental anyways, so the tax is a wash...

Kinda seems to me like a safe bet for rising interest rates; Heck one percent more and I am breaking even, if, say in the next 10 years rates climb a lot, it would be a solid play even just buying bonds...

If real estate truly tanks, I will have huge reserves to pick up properties when the rental values make sense...

the reasons I thing ghennis might be on to interest rates climbing in the future:

The chinese are sick of our bonds.
social security will quit adding to its stockpile in about 6 years, give or take...

September 17 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"

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If you really wanted to play that, you'd put the funds from the loans into something that would do well in an inflation environment. That would be a lot more risky, however.

September 17 2007

Aldreth
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Get a life alpine...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYBOOiT5mAO0&refer=home
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will head into a ``serious'' recession and the dollar will ``collapse'' if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reduces interest rates, investor Jim Rogers said.

``Every time the Fed turns around to save its friends on Wall Street, it makes the situation worse,'' Rogers said in an interview from Shanghai. ``If Bernanke starts running those printing presses even faster than he's doing already, yes we are going to have a serious recession. The dollar's going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going to be a lot of problems in the U.S.''

September 18 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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aldreth, a quote of a single investor is hardly worthwhile.

I don't think I've mentioned this before, but maybe 10 years ago the Wall Street Journal did a negative article on Starbucks. It was incredibly bad in a number of ways (they didn't get even basic facts correct, such as number of stores opened in a given year). But in addition they quoted an investor. Turned out that investor was a part of a company with a huge short position in Starbucks. The Wall Street Journal did not disclose that, and they basically assisted the short in making a short term profit.

I've mentioned this before. For example, you expect the CEO of Countrywide to say things that will lead to favorable decisions for their company. Thus, negative comments about the housing industry are hardly a surprise.

September 18 2007

Number2onthewaybuyer
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Aldreth,

Don't try to debate them. It is pure uncertainty and obfuscation ... there is no absolute truth, astrology is as likely to predict the future as physics, no matter the weight of the evidence, we cannot predict the future of housing (or make an educated guess with a range of uncertainty).

I'm reminded of:

http://blog.nbc.com/CreedThoughts/

September 18 2007

Aldreth
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Since most of you seem oblivious and uninformed, here is an education for you. Since August 10, there have been just two days that the fed funds rate has been over the official target of 5.25%. During every other day over the past month, the actual Fed Funds rate has been maintained well below the official target. In fact, the average Fed Funds rate since Aug. 10 has been 4.96% -- 29 basis points below the official target of 5.25%. There has already been a rate cut, and it did nothing to stem the flatulence of the market. Even when they cut 25 basis points, its really no different then what we have already been seeing in the market for the last month.

BTW - using Starbucks Krismer? Come on man.

September 18 2007

caliguy
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Interesting how I've been reading in the MSM about how this supposed Fed rate cut could "ease ARM reset pain"(http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/18/real_estate/toxic_rate_reset_shock/index.htm?section=money_mostpopular)

But, many others (including the same news source as the article quoted above) say in reality, a cut would do little(http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/18/real_estate/low_impact_rate_drop/index.htm?section=money_mostpopular) (http://www.cnbc.com/id/20834638?__source=RSS%7Cblog%7C&par=RSS)

Anyone have any insight into a cut's likely effect (if any)?

September 18 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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What's wrong with using Starbucks? I could see if you might complain I'm bringing up a 10 year old topic, but I really don't think the press has become any better since then. Probably just the opposite.

September 18 2007

Randy_H
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Fed official funds rate doesn't directly inform mortgage rates. LIBOR is much more relevant. For a while LIBOR was diverging from Fed rates by quite a bit (LIBOR moving higher). But that effect has ebbed recently.

In reality the Fed rate has a strong impact on LIBOR and an effect on the US dollar which is not as simple as many make it out to be. When the Fed cuts the rate the dollar wants to go down, but if cutting the rate spurs GDP growth, then the dollar wants to go up too. Often before a cut the dollar will sink in anticipation, but then afterwards it will recover because of growth expectations.

All that mumbo jumbo is what ends up setting mortgage rates, which are driven ultimately by the bond market (which is driven by all that mumbo jumbo).

September 18 2007

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I am very nervous about the Fed Chairman's announcement today. I am usually not like this but I guess - I am worried about the US Dollar. It is already weak and if he were to reduce the rate - ...GOD HELP US.

I am a day-trader (DIA) and for 2 days now - I am not able to focus.

I have hedges against the dollar but still in my opinion - further weakening the dollar will cause our long-term interest rate to adjust upwards as we still need buyers of the US Dollar to support our economy.

Merket is sideways now but looks very extended. Technically it is setting up for a drop - but we all know fundamentals (news) can change all that.

I am crsssing my fingers for a no change on short term rate but a 0.5% drop on the discount rate.

September 18 2007

Aldreth
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The entire market is driven by mumbo jumbo and has been for a very long time. Since the stagflation of the 70's anyways.

September 18 2007

Randy_H
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There are good reasons to worry about the dollar. There are bad reasons to worry about the dollar.

Most people worry about the dollar for bad reasons.

There are good things about a weak dollar. There are good things about a strong dollar. And so on...

September 18 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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I worry alot about the dollar! In just a few more years, I plan on moving out of the USA, but all of my income comes in dollars,, so this will impact me direclty!

September 18 2007

Justice4U
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holy moly !!!! O.5 drop on fed funds and 0.5 drop on discount. dollar is up...??? uhhh????. My DIA chart looks like its on crack. gold is up almost $5!!!

September 18 2007

Nancy Brooks-Haslam, "ROBINS AFB GEORGIA"
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Nancy Brooks-Haslam, "ROBINS AFB GEORGIA"

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That was great news! I just saw it on CBNBC. Don't think the .25% would have helped very much.

September 18 2007

Aldreth
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This isn't great news.

September 18 2007

Justice4U
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Bernanke is out of his mind!!!!

September 18 2007

Aldreth
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This is shocking. Buy into oil people. The dollar is toast now. The middle and lower classes are officially completely screwed.

September 18 2007

Aldreth
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"The Fed also said core inflation has improved "modestly" but that some risks remain. "

---Yet were going to lower the rate 50 bp?!

The FED is terrified that the economy is tanking, but this? They are driving us right into a huge recession.

September 18 2007

joannab3884866
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Ben and friends were feeling way too much pressure from some rather large interest groups recently....remember that mysterious meeting the feds had behind closed doors away from the media with the NAHB? Hmmm.....wish I was a fly on the wall at that meeting.

September 18 2007

Nancy Brooks-Haslam, "ROBINS AFB GEORGIA"
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Aldreth would you clarify that statement. Also I thought gold was good!
I personally do not see the middle and lower classes getting injured by this and I thnk it will help significantly.....just my opinion.

September 18 2007

Justice4U
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I am looking at the dollar now and its only down 30 basis points. Thats a normal day to day fluctuations. I am sure there is a deal going on somewhere to support the dollar.

Ironically the long term rate is going up today - to lure people back into securities as they are now putting money in the market.

When the long term rate was down - banks was not passing the savings to consumers due to fear - thus we are seeing the lull in real-estate. So now that Mr Bernanke has dropped rates - that fear is removed and hopefully we see more buying and selling in real estate.

So many things are going on. My head is about to explode.

September 18 2007

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ALDRETH

Enjoyed reading your post but your use of the term "flatulence"
of the market has me a bit puzzled. Webster's defines flatulence
as excessive gas in the digestive tract.

What was your interpretation?

September 18 2007

lkbryant
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lowering .5% is not going to do anyone good. thats not even gonna pay for my gas at end of the month. thats only less than $100 savings for a $500,000 loan.

September 18 2007

Aldreth
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--Weeber

flat�u�lent /'fl�t??l?nt/
Pronunciation[flach-uh-luhnt]
?adjective

3. having unsupported pretensions; inflated and empty; pompous; turgid: a flatulent style.

[Origin: 1590?1600; < NL flatulentus; see flatus, -ulent]

?Related forms
flat�u�lence, flat�u�len�cy, flat�u�lent�ly

September 21 2007

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