First rule of Float Club is...

The 100-28 support level holding firm...

"other" MBS sites coming out with lock requests...

Historically supportive month end, plus wide spreads, plus absent headline risk, plus 100pts down in dow...

My question to you is how could you NOT be floating right now?

I've received some feedback over the past 30 days saying, "it seems like you always advise floating... etc..."

Hmmm... Mid July levels in the mod to low 99's and current levels almost 2 points YSP better, plus my caveat that we might need to wait 3 weeks or so... I wonder why we've been "float biased" recently? (for the 3 out of the 2500 readers that doesn't like or get it, that was sarcasm).

Sure, there can certainly be some wisdom in locking in at the top of the recent market, but no sense in doing so this morning.

Take a look at your lock cut-off time. When we approach it, ask yourself "is the removal of risk worth the price I might lose?"

Of course, that will always depend on your time horizon. Short time horizons should always be lock biased, but in our context, "short" means days not weeks. If you have weeks, you are still warmly invited to the "float club."

Considering the economic data plus the 4 previous days of strength, MBS has no right to be "even" day over day. All right, enough discussion... Everyone: Back in the Pool! But don't tune out just yet...

----MND

  • August 29 2008 - US
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Answers (64)

Plus, a little practical rule: Never lock on a friday, and especially Never a friday right before a 3 day weekend.

  • August 29 2008
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First rule of Float Club is to NEVER talk about Float Club

  • August 29 2008
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Sunrise,

 

It is almost like a regular market with these Friday upswings.

  • August 29 2008
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That's funny Tom....lol

  • August 29 2008
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regular market...now that's funny!

  • August 29 2008
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Rob that is really funny man. Regular market. For all we know another banking giant is just waiting to fail over the weekend and the Fed will need to save the day like Bear Stearns.  I read an article the other day that stated FDIC was running out of funds and would have to borrow on the national debt...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................wow

  • August 29 2008
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Sunrise-

 

FDIC said they might need to tap an existing 30 billion line of credit with the Fed to liquidate some of their failures. The draw will be short term and paid back after liquidation.  They won't tap the taxpayer.

 

This is from Sheila Bair at FDIC, and she's been more of a straight shooter than any other federal official through this whole mess. 

  • August 29 2008
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SVM,

how did you do that?  Your elipses went off the board.  That's cool!

  • August 29 2008
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CL,


That has to be the longest post I've ever seen from you.  Did you take some speed this morning?

  • August 29 2008
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I was all jacked up on that Mountain Dew George...

  • August 29 2008
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MBS

 

 

  • August 29 2008
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • August 29 2008
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Paul-just like that.

  • August 29 2008
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Paul?

  • August 29 2008
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FDIC might need to borrow, but that is really a whole different cup of tea than Fannie/Freddie needing to borrow. It IS possible that FDIC charges to banks have not been sufficient to cover all the risks and losses FDIC may see in the next year or two. They are raising their fees to banks, and ongoing operations in the future will make enough money to pay the debt back, from everything I can see.

 

Fannie/Freddi, and even FHA on the other hand are sitting on deteriorting portfolios of humongous size. A miscalculation/fear could make their ongoing operations impossible without government support.

  • August 29 2008
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sorry-JP!

  • August 29 2008
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I said "almost" fellas. 

  • August 29 2008
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keep on floating. should see price improvements, if you have not gotten them already.

  • September 02 2008
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2nd price improvement? keep on floating

  • September 02 2008
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2nd one from CITI, Wells soon to follow

 

Days like these are so rare nowadays......

 

DP

  • September 02 2008
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Live by the float die by the float!
  • September 02 2008
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Adds a little spice to the day DoubleA.

  • September 02 2008
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Has anyone seen the calendar for tommorrow

 

Beige book, red book, motor vehicle sales, petroleum inventory and Factory orders, all due out before 2:00 eastern. Some of that is due to be bad news for the economy, and that means good news for rates.

  • September 02 2008
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Profile picture for Chris Corica

I live by the Kenny Rogers Method.

 

You got to know when to float em, know when to lock em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your spread when youre sittin at the table.
Therell be time enough for countin when the closings done.

  • September 02 2008
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Good one CC...

  • September 02 2008
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That website has been very accurate from when I started following it 3 months ago. That is how I got the price changes before I got the email from the lender.

  • September 02 2008
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AA,

Is that rule#3 of float club? 

  • September 02 2008
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I agree with sunrise. I think the dow will drop tomorrow and MBS will pick up.

  • September 02 2008
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Wow. You should be rich since you can read into the future right Tom?

  • September 02 2008
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Infoseeking, did you buy a house yet, or are you waiting until your mother kicks you out?

  • September 02 2008
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