Profile picture for Mightymighty

For the Doomers, is this a good enough discount?

House sold in 06 for 817,000 almost 3000 sqft and was brand new in 06. Is 500,000 as good of a deal as I think it is? It is a great neighborhood in the northbay (SF California). I think it is still really early in the crash but it is a great house for my family to settle... Your thoughts?

  • March 29 2008 - US
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Answers (46)

Profile picture for 2 Big 2 Fail

That sounds like a great bargain. 

  • March 29 2008
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Certainly sounds good. Keep us posted!

  • March 29 2008
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Petaluma area?

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Randy_H

Where in the North Bay are you finding 3000sqft for half a mil?  Even in Novato that size new constr. will run over $800K easy.  Half million is like Marin City prices.

 

If it's a safe neighborhood then snap it up.  But I'd need to see the proof, sounds to good to be true.

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for jimmy57

I don't think there's enough information for anyone to say, but...

 

The last buyers may have grossly overpaid, even for that year.

Just because it's apparently fallen far, doesn't mean it won't fall further.  What were houses selling for in that neighborhood in, say, 2002 -- because we may be going back there, or lower.

How much do you want to pay to "settle" a year or two sooner?  What's the rush? Can't you rent in that neighborhood?  Is that such a terrible option for your family?  What if renting would effectively put $100K into your kids' college funds?

 

 

Well, you asked for "Doomer" comments.

 

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Mightymighty

No, it's Mare Island...

 

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Randy_H

Mare Island is Vallejo, not really Marin (though I don't know what county it's in to be honest).  $500K could be overpriced over there, I wouldn't know.  Marci would.  I'd ask her if you're serious.  Click her profile and send her an email. 

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Mightymighty

to Jimmy, We have rented in the neighborhood (to make sure we liked it) and all the houses are new as of 06 no prior numbers. And it is really going to cost us no more to buy rather than rent.

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Mightymighty

I know it's Vallejo, but I would much rather deny living in Vallejo. Mare Island sounds so much nicer (and it is).

  • March 29 2008
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LOL mightymighty, like the Glen Cove people.   Vallejo is getting really hammered right now.  Is there any way to wait it out and see?  How long has the house been on the market?

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Randy_H

Nothing wrong with living in Vallejo.  People give it a hard time, but I've known a number of people who enjoyed living in nicer neighborhoods there.  Seriously, I'd check w/ Marci.

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Mightymighty

You guys are great (I am a full time lurker, I feel I know you all quite well) I will keep you updated. Hopefully it all works out and soon. We put a bid on a short sale out here in Jan and have nothing, there are more and am watching things closely. Love hearing your thoughts on things :)

 

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for jimmy57

"And it is really going to cost us no more to buy rather than rent."

 

Well maybe (really? after including property taxes, insurance, etc?) but if the house loses value going forward -- an owner suffers an equity loss, a renter doesn't.

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for 2 Big 2 Fail

God, the guy is getting a $300,000 discount, which is rare.  Take the deal before you regret passing it up!

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for jimmy57

Yeah, that's quite a "discount."  My spidey-sense is tingling.

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for 2 Big 2 Fail

Don't listen to the doomers.  Many of them won't buy until they get a FREE house. 

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Randy_H

There's a house here in Mill Valley which the owners have discounted by just over $500K over 20 months of listing (anyone local here can find it by searching with a little effort).  It still isn't selling because it's probably close to a knock-down and it's not at land value + heacache value yet.  But those level of "discounts" happen.  I look at it as not a discount but a diminishing premium.

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for 2 Big 2 Fail

Yes, but that house is a tear down Randy.  The one the original poster is inquiring about is only 2 years old.  Apples and oranges. 

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Randy_H

True.  But there are hundred thousand "discounts" here too.  On turnkey, recently updated, very nice homes.  Just not very many of them.  But they are around.  They were just mispriced by the sellers because at one point everyone thought they could just add a few $100Ks onto whatever their neighbors sold for 6 months earlier and get it.  That had to stop sometime.

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for jmeirhofer

Hey, nothing wrong with Vallejo.  I work there (building a new hospital) and the much of the town is nice enough.  It has its bad parts just like any norcal town but a lot of good parts also.

 

You say you put in a short sale offer in Jan.  On this property?  Has your realtor been in contact with the bank.  Three months seems like a long time to not here anything. 

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Profile picture for 2 Big 2 Fail

Speaking of discounts, I just stimbled upon a foreclosure in my area and the bank is asking nearly the same price that the house sold for in 2000!!  The house was purchased for $472,000 in 00, and they had 2 offers for $650,000 last year, but they both fell through.  I am a little suprrised that the house appreciated so little in 7 years. The house is 100 years old so it is likely a tear down.  Most houses here are still selling for substantially over their 2000 prices.  So there has to be a catch on this house. 

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for Mightymighty

We have given up on the first short sale, we are actually progressing really well on this one so we have our fingers crossed. I know there will be more, so I am not rushing into anything I don't love.

  • March 29 2008
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Profile picture for luckyme8890

Only if you are prepared for it to lose $100k in value.  MI may be nice, but you have to come over the draw bridge sometime.  The nicer Vallejo area is on the back road, Columbus Parkway and Redwood.  You are sooo close to Sonoma St., the depressed area.  You are brave.  Good luck.

  • March 30 2008
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Profile picture for Mr Caveat

anytime you can get 1 60-75% discount you are doing well in my book, chances are that in my opinion it is too good to be true, its probably going to be a short sale and as such subject to bank approval...

  • March 30 2008
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Profile picture for Mr Caveat

i predict that in the coming months, alpine will see many more forclosures, and continually be surprised every single time!

  • March 30 2008
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Profile picture for gkmama
Mightymighty,

:) I'm also a longtime lurker but your post has motivated me enough to actually write! We live in Vallejo (renting) and have been following this market closely since last July. If you love Mare Island and the house and can comfortably afford it (and are planning to stay awhile) then go for it. But we're pretty confident that prices have further to fall here. There are all sorts of areas here that have dropped like CRAZY- Hyde Park (new huge homes that sold originally in the 9s and low mils) now selling for low 5s and 4s. Hiddenbrooke is still in the 6s and 5s, but sold homes are few and far between. There's also the Northgate area- seems really nice and prices just keep dropping there as well.

There's also Benicia and American Canyon- Benicia still overpriced (in my opinion) although I can see why. American Canyon still WAY overpriced.... Prices are just so out of line with the fundamentals...

Anyway, someone on Patrick.net wrote that if you find your 'dream home' in a price range that's reasonable for your situation then go for it. I tend to agree... has to be your dream home though. Don't settle.

Just my $.02. Good Luck!
  • March 30 2008
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Profile picture for jdsdaddy

Isn't Vallejo the city that is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy?  If so, you might want to look into that before you purchase.

  • March 30 2008
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Profile picture for 2 Big 2 Fail

Actually NTETS, 98% of the foreclosures I see are in areas that I would never consider living in.  It is so unusual to find foreclosures in good areas.  If I find 12 of them a year, that is considered a miracle.  One of the things that I notice is that houses here reamin in defualt for a very long time  There was a house in Alpine that was scheduled to be auctioned last summer, but the auction date kept getting pushed back.  So, 9 months later, the house has yet to be auctioned.  The house was last scheduled ot be auctioned last Friday, but I am willing to bet that it did not happen. 

  • March 30 2008
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Profile picture for whitetower67

Forget whether it's a "deal" or how much the "discount" is.

 

The value of the house will likely fall to 1999-2000 price levels. If the home wasn't built then, it means that the value will regress far below the initial sale price.

 

It sounds to me like it is still far overpriced.

  • March 30 2008
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Profile picture for 2 Big 2 Fail

199 prices?  Good luck with that one.  How is your crack supply doing? 

  • March 30 2008
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