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Ok Zillow, this is f'ng absurd. In three weeks my Zestimate dropped ~$19,000, but you have the 30 day change as being a +$3,500. Can you please explain how that is?
Dan -
I'm sorry for the confusion. To understand our deceision, please note that the Zestimate history is primarily used to determine what the Zestimate would have been at a specific point in the past. So, when the algorithm changed, so did our calculation of what the Zestimate would have been. We thought long and hard about whether to refresh the history but realized that it's more valuable to have an accurate reflection of "what the Zestimate would have been" than "what the Zestimate was." Within the next week or so, the 30 day change will also again be the "true" change from the Zestimate that was published a month ago - please bare with us as we work through this transition to a far more accurate Zestimate algorithm.
For more background about the refresh of Zestimate history, please read this blog post.
So david are you saying that each month the history will change to reflect what ever craptimate you have decided is appropriate for the current month? If you are going to continue to change the historical data to "back up" you zestimates why bother to post it at all. The first time you "adjusted" the historical data to represent this new value your data became flawed and as such worthless to anyone but you. It is no different than lying to try and prove your correct.
jmeirhofer -
No, that's not what I'm saying. Please read the blog post explaining this change. Definitely not an easy decision and yes, we understand that it's created some confusion, but it was the right decision.
The Storm
Zestimate history primarily shows a user the estimated trend in a home's value. Our new algorithms not only calculated a far more accurate current estimate but also calculate a far more accurate historical trend. What would have been absurd is if we'd decided not to post that improved information.
It hasn't created confusion it has created a group of angry pissed off people. When the stock market drops a certain percentage they call that a market reset. They do not go back and change the historical documents of the NYSE to reflect the reset. If they did they would most likely go to jail for fraud. Yes, I consider what you have done fraud.
How do you consider your new algorithm to be more accurate. From what i am seeing in this discussion forum they are less accurate. If you can can post proof here of that actual 12% accuracy increase I might ease off a bit. Of course as was explained to me by another Zillowite, "Accuracy in your area is one of the highest on Zillow at 35%" and he was damn proud of that as well. I have checked literally hundreds of homes so far in my zip and calculated the value using my own algorithm (average value per square foot as noted by the county) and have yet to find one within 10% of zillow estimate.
I can only hope that someone with more resources than I have files a class action suit against your company soon so that I can join it. Even if the only thing I got from it was the removal of your zestimate(craptimate) and value range I would be pleased.
And I agree Storm it is absurb to post "improved information" as a manner of defrauding people.
I have watched my personal home go up and down several times as much as 25 percent in a 30 day period! This was really vexing because I was going to put the house on the market but everytime I would start to list it, it would suddenly drop fifty to ninety thousand dollars. I attempted to contact zillow to discover why my custom built no bank waterfront home was being undervalued but received no reply.
As a homeowner and an investor I am very concerned about the effects of zillow's over and under evaluations of the market. Even my banker used zillow as a first pass attempt to determine my equity when I was considering refinancing. No wonder WAMU is in such deep doo doo!
David, it was changing from month to month in 2007. Please note the date on on my original post here. It was Nov. 6. I was observing this revision of the history months prior to the algorithm change.
And your new algortihm is NOT more accurate, IME. Please refer to my other thread, where I pointed out how you now think a pile of dirt is worth more than my house. Perhaps you can shed some light onto what I hope is an outlying error.
http://www.zillow.com/forum/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=18202
Thanks!
Regardless of which Zestimate algorithm is more accurate, the fact that the people behind Zillow seem to play fast a loose with the numbers disturbs me. Revising the history charts as if the old Zestimates didn't exist tells me nothing can be trusted on this site. The current Zestimate might be the most accurate (although I don't think it is), but after seeing radical changes in the supposed value of my house I've lost all confidence in Zillow. Sorry, but the recent changes has completely undermined Zillow's credibility in my mind. BTW this is not just sour grapes.... the Zestimate for my house actually went up quite a bit.
I agree, they need to stop calling it "History". It's not a history if it changes every month.
And Dave, you can say it's more accurate until you're blue in the face. But it doesn't make it so. Show us the numbers. You have the data, share it. I don't expect your math geeks appreciate being held is such low regard by so many. They should be happy to put forth some evidence that the new algorithm is better. I know we've shown more than a few examples of it being much worse. Not seeing the counter-argument.
Zillow should have to stick to one version of history. This would enable people to see if zillow has had any luck at estimating house prices in the past. Without a accurate track record why would anyone look at a zestimate.
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Historical Value Chart
Dan Isaacs, "Dan Isaacs"
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What this chart shows isn't what you said it was worth in 2005. It's what you now think it was worth, in retrospect. That could be a bit more clearly labeled, to avoid the impression that you are misrepresenting yourselves.
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