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Replies (12)
Finally some positive news!!!! Maybe we will all get it right in version 2.0.....
From your link:
"But it's still nearly a 23 percent decrease from March of last year."
Still crashing year over year.
Wait a couple years to buy, prices will be so much cheaper with so much more selection.
"But it's still nearly a 23 percent decrease from March of last year."
Still crashing year over year.
Wait a couple years to buy, prices will be so much cheaper with so much more selection.
ok, you guys do realize that the MEDIAN can rise, while the individual members all still drop right?
Imagine a company with 10 employees, making 10k, 20k, 30k, ... you get the idea... median salary 55K...
the ones making 10k, 20k both get fired, everybody else gets a $1000 salary cut... calculate the median? hey median went up to $64K!!!!
Imagine a company with 10 employees, making 10k, 20k, 30k, ... you get the idea... median salary 55K...
the ones making 10k, 20k both get fired, everybody else gets a $1000 salary cut... calculate the median? hey median went up to $64K!!!!
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4364
Answer to Spleng post :
"But it's still nearly a 23 percent decrease from March of last year."
Still crashing year over year.
No body expect month to month increment 23% on housing's price.
Answer to Azrob post :
"the ones making 10k, 20k both get fired, everybody else gets a $1000 salary cut... calculate the median? hey median went up to $64K!!!! "
the ones 10k, 20 k wasn't got fire, actually the one make 55k got fire.
mainly the houses sold right now are distress properties, mean the active is in lower price area, the higher price area is still freeze.
"But it's still nearly a 23 percent decrease from March of last year."
Still crashing year over year.
No body expect month to month increment 23% on housing's price.
Answer to Azrob post :
"the ones making 10k, 20k both get fired, everybody else gets a $1000 salary cut... calculate the median? hey median went up to $64K!!!! "
the ones 10k, 20 k wasn't got fire, actually the one make 55k got fire.
mainly the houses sold right now are distress properties, mean the active is in lower price area, the higher price area is still freeze.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25046
I agree with Hoang. I think the lower priced houses are still driving the market overall, but sales season started early in SoCal so we'll see how they do next month.
- jonestim
- Contributions:83
Here in Bend almost 40% of the months since the peak have had month over month increases in median, yet medians are down 41%.
Month over month increases mean very, very little.
Month over month increases mean very, very little.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4364
"you guys do realize that the MEDIAN can rise, while the individual members all still drop right?".
I don't know if you want to talk about Zillow's data.
I think Zillow get the data is slower than the others ( media ).
For example : few months back when every media said " Los Angeles Housing price is down ", My house on Zestimate is up.
And last week, Some news papers said " LA Home's price is up 3%" , then My house value on Zestimate is down.
I don't know if you want to talk about Zillow's data.
I think Zillow get the data is slower than the others ( media ).
For example : few months back when every media said " Los Angeles Housing price is down ", My house on Zestimate is up.
And last week, Some news papers said " LA Home's price is up 3%" , then My house value on Zestimate is down.
- n00bzilla
- Contributions:367
Year-over-Year vs Month-over-Month for dummies:
Today the National Association of Realtors reported a 12.4 percent year-over-year drop in existing home prices in March. Yesterday the FHFA reported prices on homes with conventional loans fell 6.5 percent year-over-year and rose 0.7 percent from January to February. S&P Case-Shiller reports that home prices in the nation's top twenty markets fell 19 percent in January, year-over-year.
So why would anyone be confused, right?
There is, in fact, a legitimate reason the Realtors and Case-Shiller only use year-over-year data. While sales figures are “seasonally adjusted”, prices are not, and different types of buyers buy different types of homes at different times of the year. Historically, families tend to buy in the spring and summer months, because who wants to pull their kids out of school mid-year or even deal with a move while your kids are in school? Families tend to be middle-aged buyers, purchasing step-up homes in higher price ranges. In contrast, first-time home buyers and single or newlywed buyers tend to be the majority in fall and winter. They are looking for smaller, lower-priced homes. This is why it's best to compare each month to the same month a year ago.
All that said, the Realtors, in a twist, decided to give the month-to-month home price changes today, because it offered, as chief economist Lawrence Yun suggested, hope of a possible “green chute.”
...
So it's fine to say sales may be bumping along some kind of bottom in some regions, but as I have said about 900 times already, until job losses slow and the resulting foreclosures slow, home prices have nowhere to go but down.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30371826
Today the National Association of Realtors reported a 12.4 percent year-over-year drop in existing home prices in March. Yesterday the FHFA reported prices on homes with conventional loans fell 6.5 percent year-over-year and rose 0.7 percent from January to February. S&P Case-Shiller reports that home prices in the nation's top twenty markets fell 19 percent in January, year-over-year.
So why would anyone be confused, right?
There is, in fact, a legitimate reason the Realtors and Case-Shiller only use year-over-year data. While sales figures are “seasonally adjusted”, prices are not, and different types of buyers buy different types of homes at different times of the year. Historically, families tend to buy in the spring and summer months, because who wants to pull their kids out of school mid-year or even deal with a move while your kids are in school? Families tend to be middle-aged buyers, purchasing step-up homes in higher price ranges. In contrast, first-time home buyers and single or newlywed buyers tend to be the majority in fall and winter. They are looking for smaller, lower-priced homes. This is why it's best to compare each month to the same month a year ago.
All that said, the Realtors, in a twist, decided to give the month-to-month home price changes today, because it offered, as chief economist Lawrence Yun suggested, hope of a possible “green chute.”
...
So it's fine to say sales may be bumping along some kind of bottom in some regions, but as I have said about 900 times already, until job losses slow and the resulting foreclosures slow, home prices have nowhere to go but down.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30371826
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4364
Diana Olick is queen of doomer.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4364
Some how, every time I reading Diana Olick's columm, I remember to SunnyView, maybe the way of their writing are same, not too far left or right ( Political talk ) ;-)
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4364
columm -> column
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
Excellent post, n00bzilla.
Calculated Risk had a blog entry today related to the point you make:
Home Sales: The Distressing Gap
As I've noted before, I believe this "stabilization" discussion in existing home sales analysis is all wrong.
Close to half of existing home sales are distressed sales: REO sales (foreclosure resales) or short sales. This has created a gap between new and existing sales as shown in the following graph that I've jokingly labeled the "Distressing" gap. ...
So I believe those analysts looking at the existing home sales report for stability are looking in the wrong place. The first "signs of stability" in the housing market will be declining inventory, a bottom in new home sales, and the gap between new and existing home sales closing.
As long as distressed sales account for a significant percentage of total sales and unemployment is rising there will continue to be tremendous downward pressure on home values.
Calculated Risk had a blog entry today related to the point you make:
Home Sales: The Distressing Gap
As I've noted before, I believe this "stabilization" discussion in existing home sales analysis is all wrong.
Close to half of existing home sales are distressed sales: REO sales (foreclosure resales) or short sales. This has created a gap between new and existing sales as shown in the following graph that I've jokingly labeled the "Distressing" gap. ...
So I believe those analysts looking at the existing home sales report for stability are looking in the wrong place. The first "signs of stability" in the housing market will be declining inventory, a bottom in new home sales, and the gap between new and existing home sales closing.
As long as distressed sales account for a significant percentage of total sales and unemployment is rising there will continue to be tremendous downward pressure on home values.
Home prices increase from February to March in Orange County, CA.
http://www.ocmetro.com/t- ... 5_09.aspx
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