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House Prices Likely To Crash Through Fair Value

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dacolan
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House prices are finally approaching fair value. Unfortunately, unless the housing bubble behaves differently than almost every bubble before it, house prices will now crash right through fair value and stay below it for a number of years.

When prices do finally bottom, moreover, they aren't likely to recover quickly.

June 09 - US

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Some have corrected while others still have a long way to go.Alt-A in SF Bay Area will be a kick in the teeth.

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

June 09

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Holy baloney! Both good links to scary info. I can't imagine what that would do to people who are on the edge of letting go of their house that is already underwater. Sometimes when I look at areas that were so inflated and have come down so much already, it seems like it's a self feeding cycle.

June 09

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I read today something that I think is the best line I've heard regarding homes, it goes like "Don't think of your home as an ATM or as an investment. Think of your home as shelter and a place to live. If you plan on living in an area for several years then purchasing a home is probably ok, but if you only plan on being somewhere for a year or two then rent is probably the best choice for you."

If the numbers don't work, as in it is cheaper to pay rent than the PITI for a home, I'm all for renting. If you plan on being some place only temporary or their is the chance of loosing your job or having to move because of your job, RENT!

If you have secure income, plan on being in the area for several years (over 3-5 years), and you find the house you like, then dive in. To steal the lines from the NAR, Paint your rooms purple, build that addition you always want to, and put the neon green marble in the kitchen. But realize that whatever you do to the house is for you and not for resale value. If you like it and it's what you want, enjoy it. If you are buying only to make money on a house later, you may need to rethink what you are buying for.

My .02

June 09

Spleng
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Yes the overshoots are proportional to the size of the preceding bubble....

this is going to be one immense

June 09

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"Change is not merely necessary to life - it is life."
Alvin Toffler

http://gamapserver.who.int/h1n1/atlas.html?select=ZZZ&filter=filter4,confirmed

June 11

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124458888993599879.html

"Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates "

"The unprecedented expansion of the money supply could make the '70s look benign."

June 11

Spleng
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That chart is freaky:

June 12

lrryjrry
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No way the housing market will recover until 2013. 2009 will have close to 2 million default foreclosures equal to totol 2007, 2006, 2005 ,2004, 2003's number.

June 12

NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"
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freaky indeed, however its fiction. most of that money( and a lot more) are offset by huge debts that arent being accounted for

June 12

nvchaz
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"Unfortunately, unless the housing bubble behaves differently than almost every bubble before it"

Which it has from day one.

June 12

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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No, actually the housing bubble has behaved EXACTLY like other bubbles in history:
1. slow take off due to fundamentals
2. growing excitement faster growth
3. hysteria, growing just because its growing!
4. tons of experts claiming it will never go down
5. starts to go down, tons of experts saying its a great time to buy
6. starts to collapse.
7. sudden turn around, tons of bottom calls...
8. crashes again, this time all the way to the floor.
9. everybody says "don't ever buy ____ it is always a bad deal" which coincidentally is exactly the time to buy...

We are in #7 now. Same process in The tech stocks, the dow in 1920's to 40's, Japanese housing, tulip bubble, Arabian horse bubble, south sea trading company, all of them!

June 12

cvoc13
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Recover? I think you meant 2025 LOANS and Shadow Banking is GONE.

June 12

nvchaz
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aznabob

You talking symptoms and it is erroneous to compare housing to tulips or beany babies.

What housing bubble precipitated the collapse of the credit markets?

Please educate me.

June 12

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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florida, 1928... google it.

June 12

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I heard today on Bloomberg, that they did a study, going back through all types of societies, and they all had REAL ESTATE booms and busts, this one is the mother of them all. In ca. anyway, I saw the list by realtytrac today and there are dozens of states that ZERO foreclosures ZERO... and we have some 43K and some 93K total take a look at the report on
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/PressRelease.aspx?channelid=9&ItemID=6655

June 12

nvchaz
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I just did. This is what I got:

Miss Florida 1928:

June 12

nvchaz
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Perhaps it was the Great Ocheecochee Hurricane?

Not a peep on a real estate bubble burst causing a credit crisis, or are you implying a housing bubble caused the great depression?

June 12

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Sorry one more item,
Foreclosure Numbers Don't Paint the Real Picture

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31323604

June 12

nvchaz
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ok az I stand corrected. I expanded the search and found this:

The Florida land boom of the 1920s was Florida's first real estate bubble, which burst in 1925, leaving behind entire new cities and the remains of failed development projects such as Isola di Lolando in north Biscayne Bay. The preceding land boom shaped Florida's future for decades and created entire new cities out of the Everglades land that remain today. The story includes many parallels to the modern real estate boom, including the forces of outside speculators, easy credit access for buyers, and rapidly-appreciating property values.

I think there are more differences than parallels, however.

June 12

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I was looking at the STUDY of CHARTS in bubbles, they were showing all type of bubble markets, and the same RESULT of course there are some different speeds, BUT always a TIPPY TOP PEAK and then ALL over shoot too the down side. (about 10-20%)

June 13

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The new fair value is what a buyer is willing to pay. Otherwise the seller can stay put or walk away. If you don't have to sell now, DON 'T.

June 13

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Soon few will be able to sell (at least in ca. fl.) unless they have savings and are willing to fill in the gap of sales price vs. payoff. (neg equity) so trade up's won't happen near as often. I am for one glad this over priced R.E. market has cooled its heels. I want to see it bust through the trend line. (How many of you have drawn the trend line say from 1980 -1996 and then take that SLOPE and continue it out, it will trend below the current one as the trend line was taken higher of course, if you take the trend line I am talking about making it should be Nat. Avg. 110-120K and that is now, what 160K so about another 25% and we are at the longer term trend line. Affordability, as incomes are going to drop a little every year for the next 5-10 years.

June 13

nvchaz
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I agree that housing will break the trendline in many areas and at many price points.

I also think that it has been a big fallacy, perhaps an intellectual blind-spot, to talk of the "housing bubble" instead of the "housing bubbles". Even in a specific geographical area bubbles will occur per market segment.

Instead of seeking insight from generalized historical precedents, it is perhaps more instructive to examine discrete bubbles in this current crisis and then compare and contrast the demographics, timing of the peak, economic environment and other factors to determine if those factors prevail in your market and market segment.

Case-Schiller is a gloss index for Wall Street, not a source of definitive information for the individual buyer or investor.

June 13

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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yes, they are all separate unrelated bubbles. that is why, we see the entire crash in the same three year period everywhere, even in Europe, England, Australia, Asia...

I suppose, the famous Tulip Bubble Mania/Crash was a bunch of separate tulip bubbles... There was the red tulip bubble, the purple tulip bubble, the spotted tulip bubble, the white tulip bubble... And prices for each type of tulip had their own peak and individual market dynamics...

June 13

nvchaz
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No, I don't think they are unrelated but they are different.

You again persist with the tulip analogy. It would be better to look at the 1890s real estate bubble if you are searching for certainy based on precedent.

This bubble is unprecedented in many ways. Those who continue to chart their course of action based on precedent without making note of current unique developments are taking the lazy way and are doomed to failure.

June 13

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That's good to know that we are at stage 7... gonna buy at stage 8..

June 13

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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well, nvchaz, I will give you that: This one is such a doozey, that you have to judge it all on its own. And, for the price of homes you are looking at, buying does seem to balance out risk/reward reasonably.

June 13

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I have a question I can't seem to get a GOOD (thoughtful) answer to.
I see that some of the posters here are smart folks, so I will ask this of you. Please consider it and reply, pretty please?

I have a feeling that everyone that has or is going to have a foreclosure on their credit profile clearly is going to have IMPAIRED Credit, almost always they (we) fell behind on other bills due, so the credit impairment is wide spread and more then just the mortgage FICA HURT... badly.

WHO IS GOING to be able to revive the housing market? (for all of you who think that housing will make a come back)

I don't see how based on just that GIANT problem to over come, not to mention the TIGHTER Credit standards needed, added to that, you are going to need people (count a lot of people) that have:

A) Have Good Credit (how can that many have good credit when so many have impaired credit?)
B) Have Good Income (The income needed by that many people, there is not enough higher paying jobs to afford the credit)
C) Have Saved Money 10-20% Down Payment (That means they will have been working and saving for a some years)

What I am having trouble with is WHO IS GOING TO FIT that set of requirements by the numbers needed to apply pressure on the housing market even to just to keep the prices FLAT much less to create a upward bias to prices?

So recap: WHO IS GOING TO BE THE BUYERS and WHERE are they going to come from in the numbers needed?

Does anyone else see this is a problem with no good answer?

I see a SEA of people with impaired credit, not being able to barrow even if they wanted to, I don't want to own again I have been a home owner since 1982 and before the bubble it was always a question if you were going to get out of your current home with enough money (after commission) to make it worth while.

June 13

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The global housing boom

Jun 16th 2005  From The Economist print edition

NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000.

What if the housing boom now turns to bust?
According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs.

Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history. …

June 13

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Oh Tell me this is not true, another Moratorium, This is dated June 13th NO PLEASE, NO MORE SLOW PAIN...

SACRAMENTO, Calif. Ca. is imposing a 90-day moratorium on housing foreclosures under a new law that takes effect Monday.The law is expected to make lenders try harder to keep borrowers
in their homes. Loan companies must prove they tried to modify the
delinquent loans before they can begin foreclosing.But supporters acknowledge the California Foreclosure Prevention
Act won't stop thousands of foreclosures from eventually happening.
There have been more than 365,000 foreclosures in California since
early 2007, with many more already scheduled.The bill passed in February is similar to the Obama administration's Making Home Affordable Program that began in March.Both encourages lenders to cut interest rates or rewrite loans to affordable levels.

June 13

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