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Houses selling for 67% of '04 price

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Aldreth
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An auction of about 135 foreclosed homes in San Diego Saturday provided more sobering news for mortgage lenders. Ramsey Su, an investor and former real-estate broker who attended, calculated that the high bids for the homes averaged 67% of the prices they fetched when they were last sold, mostly in 2004 or 2005.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118758059074702618.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

August 20 2007 - US

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Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"

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I think 80% of FMV is typically doing good on a mortage foreclosure. Since some markets are down 16% over last year, that's not really surprising news.

August 20 2007

Aldreth
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It's not news people, the prophet hath spoken.

August 20 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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aldreth,

I thought of you in this thread:

http://www.zillow.com/forum/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=3454

Nothing bad--you just missed an opportunity to make a joke, so I made it for you. ;-)

August 20 2007

Aldreth
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The peaches and cream commercial reminds me of you.

August 20 2007

!bank_owned!
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as i mentioned in another post, Kary, for once and for all, please remove your heavily-tinted ROSE colored glasses. I have a feeling that if you don't remove them soon it'll be irreversible.

seriously, you're making all other RE agents here look bad (except for Tuckerton he's on a different level...his actual eye color is "piercing neon pink").

August 20 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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mayno,

I don't wear tinted glasses of either color--unlike some here with very dark tints.

I don't try to predit where the market is headed--but I will point out flaws in others reasoning.

To point to foreclosure prices of evidence of where the market is headed is absurd. Foreclosures are not evidence of FMV.

That said, too many foreclosures in an area isn't good. But that doesn't mean the foreclosure prices are relevant (number of sales is).

August 20 2007

Aldreth
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Foreclosure filings jump 58% in first half of the year and could surpass 2 million this year as the housing market weakens, according to a report.

August 20 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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Filings aren't as important as actual foreclosure sales. It's sales you need to track.

August 20 2007

klarek the realist
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klarek the realist

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I just did a quick google map search of the foreclosures in my area. Actively, there are 96 right now in an area thats only a few square miles and is suburban. That's more active foreclosures right now than there would typically be homes listed. It is INSANE!

August 20 2007

Aldreth
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Based on trustees deeds recorded, statewide foreclosures totaled 17,408 during the second quarter. That is the highest number DataQuick has seen since it began tracking such figures in 1988 and was nearly nine times the 1,936 tallied in the same period in 2006. The prior peak of foreclosure sales was 15,418 in the third quarter of 1996; the low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005.

August 20 2007

Aldreth
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funny numbers

Properties for sale, price range $0-$2,000,000

Sacramento:
Residential (300)
Foreclosures (6738)
Lots & Land (3)
Townhomes (10)

San Francisco
Residential (75)
Foreclosures (649)
Townhomes (36)
Commercial (1)

Roseville
Residential (106)
Foreclosures (810)
Commercial (1)

Stockton
Residential (132)
New Homes (2)
Foreclosures (3866)
Lots & Land (3)
Commercial (1)

San Jose
Residential (176)
New Homes (1)
Foreclosures (2282)
Lots & Land (1)
Townhomes (43)
Commercial (8 )

Cupertino
Residential (2)
Foreclosures (27)
Townhomes (1)

Napa
Residential (38 )
Foreclosures (198 )
Lots & Land (3)
Townhomes (4)

August 20 2007

klarek the realist
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WTF are you serious? I'll stop complaining about my area, I didn't know that foreclosures are actually out-pacing normal listings. That's awful!

August 20 2007

Aldreth
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Someone will chime in and say - where did you get those numbers, they can't be valid....

Its california, and yes they are valid.

August 20 2007

LawFitz
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"To point to foreclosure prices of evidence of where the market is headed is absurd. Foreclosures are not evidence of FMV."

What??? Wow, Kris, you're really reaching now.

FMV = what the market is willing to pay. A foreclosure auction, as long as it is available to all market participants, is as good an indicator as any other sale.

August 21 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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You don't have a willing seller in a foreclosure situation. Forced sales are not evidence of market value.

August 22 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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Lawfitz, google "definition 'fair market value" (FMV in quotes) and you'll see the willing seller or no compulsion to sell is a part of the definition. Information is also a part of many definitions, and that's lacking in foreclosure situations too.

August 22 2007

klarek the realist
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Actually Krismer had a point. Banks will sell the home below FMV, especially in a time where it takes a while to find a good buyer. What happens is they'll list at 20k less than the competition, and now the competition either has to lower their listing price to stand a chance, or wait and hope that foreclosure is scooped up real fast. Unfortunately, in that time, another foreclosure or motivated seller comes along.

August 22 2007

Marci Reinheimer
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Just my 2 cents. At least where I am in CA, the reason the foreclosure numbers are so high is that nobody is buying them. A good number of them are totally delapidated and the bank wants 20% down. Not an easy amount to achieve in this neck of the woods.

August 22 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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Marci,

Good point on the condition of the properties. While you sometimes see a house in foreclosure that is in great shape, that typically is not the case. With the financial troubles people start letting the property go, and I'm not talking just of deferred maintenance. I'm talking trash being left all around and inside the property.

August 22 2007

Marci Reinheimer
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Exactly Kary. I previewed one that had animal waste in the carpet, a dead rat in the toilet, and mud and goodness knows what else all over the kitchen. Not to mention the gaping hole to the outside under the sink. Doesn't give the buyer a good homey feeling. :)

August 22 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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I went through one that was listed prior to sale, and it was a two story house that had belongings scattered knee high throughout the house and even higher in the garage. If you bought that it would probably be 3-4 large dumpsters of trash to haul away. And the property had obvious signs of needing repair, but it was difficult to inspect due to the stuff lying around. And in a foreclosure situation you wouldn't typically be able to inspect. You'd have to assume the worst.

August 22 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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BTW, I would agree with aldreth that it is "sobering news for lenders." That is what they're facing if they foreclose.

I just hope that they have guidlines that will allow them to be flexible enough to avoid such results. It's very possible that they are restricted in what they can do (becuase they're only servicing the loans), and that would be very bad for the market.

August 22 2007

klarek the realist
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What worries me in my area is that with the lack of buyers as it stands now, where will the new ones come from? I don't personally know anyone around here that has the kind of savings necessary to put even a 10% down payment on a home here, let alone 20%. I take that back, my agent is the only one I know in that situation, and he's renting right now. I just don't possess the imagination to convince myself there are many, or any, qualified buyers in my area. Where will they come from? I know a lot of people that own, but only one that rents and has a large pile of money saved up.

August 22 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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In addition to looking at employment figures for the area, if I were looking to catch a falling knife (buy in a down market) I'd try to look at rents in the area. If there are a lot of vacancies, that wouldn't be good for the housing market overall.

August 22 2007

Marci Reinheimer
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klarek, there still is 100% financing, but obviously the guidelines have changed to buyers having to actually qualify (imagine that), which does decrease the buyer pool. The days of FHA are coming back, but in my area, it is really hard to find a house under the 380k limit. The other problem is the high jumbo loan percentage rate, so if a house is over 417k, which in this area isn't hard to do, you are going to have a problem finding people to pay that high of a rate.

August 22 2007

klarek the realist
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Kary, is there a measurable way to determine the rental activity and pricing in an area, short of just going on craigslist and keeping track?

Marci, which area do you work? What concerns me with this situation is that with those sort of financing requirements, is it at all reasonable to have these homes listed for so much? The only temporary solution that can possibly stop the decline is to allow for 100% financing, or the teaser rate loans. But that's what got us in this mess to begin with, and the banks have learned their lessons from that. I just can't mathematically understand what can keep this market from tanking in my area.

August 22 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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There are entities that track rentals locally, but I don't know what they're called, because I don't track it. We have a newspaper called "The Daily Journal of Commerce" which publishes reports on such things locally. It's a local business paper. You might have something similar.

August 22 2007

Marci Reinheimer
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klarek, i'm in the San Francsico Bay Area. For first-time homebuyers, it's really tough. I just lowered a listing to below the jumbo limit for this very reason. I honestly don't know what the answer is, but since the Bay Area is one of the "richest" areas in the state, I can't imagine the prices are going to drop that much.

August 22 2007

klarek the realist
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I've peeked every now and then over the years and it seems pretty stable in my area. Back a few years ago when everyone wanted to get rich on the RE boom, a lot of crummy apartments were converted to condos. I don't know how much that changed the rates for the other apartments in the area. Also there was so much building going on at the time I think a lot of rentals were built too. All I do know is that the shovels have been put away and building is coming to a halt!

August 22 2007

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It's not any better in the Seattle area... Most of the "jobs" don't pay squat. Yet the housing costs are astronomical.

Of the 240,000 jobs created in Washington between 2002 and 2006, almost 70 percent were in fields where the average weekly pay was less than $832 a week. That's the income calculated as a "living wage" in Washington, according to Penn State's Poverty in America project.

August 22 2007

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