Housing in 2012.

Jaime Dimon C.E.O. of J.P. Morgan said today that housing is at or near the bottom. I believe he is correct. I am finding prices stabilizing in Louisville and Southern Indiana and Jan buyer activity is picking up rapidly.
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January 10 2012 - Jeffersonville
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Profile picture for sunnyview
I'm not sure that I feel comfortable listening to someone who has a bad record of making calls about real estate for themselves here when they say the market has bottomed. I prefer to listen those with a better track record myself.
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January 10 2012
Profile picture for the_country_hick
I could find several other people who say they think real estate has a lot farther to drop. I think they would be right.

Just interest rates alone show that real estate prices have room to drop.

A 30 year $100,000 mortgage costs $491.94 a month at 4.25%.
A 30 year  $82,000 mortgage costs $491.63 a month at 6.00%
A 30 year  $80,000 mortgage costs $492.57 a month at 6.25%
A 30 year  $69,000 mortgage costs $494.32 a month at 7.75%
A 30 year  $67,000 mortgage costs $491.62 a month at 8.00%
A 30 year  $56,000 mortgage costs $491.44 a month at 10.0%

That shows that when mortgage rates rise house prices will be forced lower. I do not understand why the money people do not factor this into their thinking about a real estate bottom.
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January 10 2012
Profile picture for grokster
"[blah blah] C.E.O. of [blah blah financial] said .." 

I don't believe a word these guys say - how can anyone!?!? In fact I actually believe the opposite of what they say!

I too think it will drop when I hear that 1 in 4 are under-water. To me that seems to indicate that distressed inventory (short sales, foreclosures) will keep coming onto the market as people who must move will simply walk-away.

Also I have heard people say they consider themselves "foolish" paying a mortgage for a house that is worth less than their mortgage. If these people start to walk-away who knows what will happen?
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January 10 2012
The inventory in the market in Denver is 38% less fewer properties then were available last year.  We are still flooded with foreclosures and short sales, but if seller properties do not increase, the demand will drive market prices higher.
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January 10 2012
Profile picture for Pasadenan
I much prefer to use the Zillow local info trend curves using the Local Info tab at the top of the page, and extrapolate from there.

And really appreciate that Zillow allows all that trend data to be downloaded as Excel files, so one can easily add an expected inflation curve from 1997 forward for better comparison to see if the bubble is really over or not.

And one can get info there on the market foreclosure saturation as well.  If the market saturation of foreclosures is above 5%, you know we are still not in a healthy market and that there will continue to be downward pressure on list prices.  I prefer the foreclosure saturation to be between 2% and 3%.  Less than 1% indicates bubble trend conditions.
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January 10 2012
I have been hearing that for the last year. And, it is probably true nationally, but each local market has it's own bottom to find. Glad to hear your market is on the up tick though!
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January 10 2012
There was an article in the Oregonian regarding the Portland Market. Analysts expect a modest 1.9 increase in prices in 2012. Click here to see article.
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January 10 2012
Profile picture for sunnyview
No way Portland has "bottomed". OR peaked late, jobs are soft, demand is soft above the REO/short sale level and they are still adding inventory of backlogged foreclosures. The larger economic forecast for OR is here.

Besides if I remember right, the Oregonian was one of the media sources that felt the housing market would bottom in 2009 here. They were wrong.

Be careful who listen to and look at their track record. Any organization or person that could not call this bubble at least by 2007 is sure not at the top of my go to list.
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January 10 2012
I would say with 3300 active listings in my market and 200 sales per month we are still headed downward. The market changes when the supply and demand numbers come closer together.
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January 28 2012
I believe in the Twin Cities we are seeing some stabilization. Housing inventories are currently at a 6 year low. While I think we are at or near the bottom I believe the key still lies with people who are more comfortable making rent payments versus buying their first home.
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January 30 2012
 
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