- Find a Real Estate Professional
- Realtors®
- Mortgage Lenders
- Home Improvement Pros
- Other Real Estate Services
- Review an Agent, Lender or Pro
- Marketing on Zillow
- Real Estate Agent Advertising
- Join the Professional Directory
- Popular
- Real Estate Market Reports
- More
Replies (16)
- Pat Pribisko, "Pat Pribisko"
- Contributions:1426
I am optimistic about 2012 for Northeast OH. I look at my local market, not the entire U.S.
- Emma Fernandez, "emmafernandez"
- Contributions:10
It would be nice if we had a crystal ball to look into, no? There are many factors that affect housing prices and some of the issues vary by locality. However, the factors that are probably most important in trying to estimate where the housing market is headed are employment rates and consumer confidence. Unemployment and, conversely, the availability of jobs vary tremendously by area and have a ripple effect on the entire economy, including people's decisions to spend on anything.
Politicians of all party persuasions would love to have such control on banking institutions as to make them fix (or delay) the foreclosure issues, but, thankfully they don't. If they had such power on the banking industry, it would be interesting to see the effect!
The reality is that the whole robo-signing problem made banks slow or put on hold many foreclosures while they reviewed transactions that were being challenged. This made worse, at least temporarily, the backlog of foreclosures. Gradually, the foreclosure backlog will be cleared -- and we need them cleared to move forward in a healthy market.
Politicians of all party persuasions would love to have such control on banking institutions as to make them fix (or delay) the foreclosure issues, but, thankfully they don't. If they had such power on the banking industry, it would be interesting to see the effect!
The reality is that the whole robo-signing problem made banks slow or put on hold many foreclosures while they reviewed transactions that were being challenged. This made worse, at least temporarily, the backlog of foreclosures. Gradually, the foreclosure backlog will be cleared -- and we need them cleared to move forward in a healthy market.
- Tug of War
- Contributions:1948
HousingWire Jan 18, 2012
"Wage stagnation and weak consumer confidence among young adults are two factors delaying a housing recovery, according to a new report from IHS Global Insight.
The report was presented to the United States Conference of Mayors this week.
According to the report, house prices are still searching for a bottom at a time when wages are stagnant and young adults are absent from the home-buying segment. Of those that do apply for loans, tighter underwriting is ending many of their bids.
The report says lackluster housing demand from young adults is mostly tied to other economic factors — namely wage growth and market confidence — both of which are lagging behind, the report said."
- Wes Black
- Contributions:509
I am optimistic about our Louisville, KY. Market. More buyers in Jan than usual. Prices seem to be stabilizing.
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4695
Any rise in house prices will not be long lasting.It all comes down to the numbers.
Ben Bernanke has been creating money from nothing. That is the recipe for inflation. Once inflation hits beyond just food and fuel it will be pushed back. The only way to tame inflation is through higher interest rates.
Consider what happens to what your your $500 a month mortgage only payment can buy at different interest rates.
A 30 year $100,000 mortgage costs $491.94 a month at 4.25%.
A 30 year $82,000 mortgage costs $491.63 a month at 6.00%
A 30 year $67,000 mortgage costs $491.62 a month at 8.00%
A 30 year $56,000 mortgage costs $491.44 a month at 10.0%
A 30 year $48,000 mortgage costs $493.73 a month at 12.0%
A 30 year $39,000 mortgage costs $493.13 a month at 15.0%
A 30 year $31,000 mortgage costs $492.56 a month at 19.0%
A 30 year $29,500 mortgage costs $492.95 a month at 20.0%
Someday the federal reserve will have to stop buying federal debt. The day that happens treasury rates will jump up. Mortgage rates are essentially determined by the 10 year treasury rate.
I can see a return to 70's style inflation and interest rates. Interest rates were
Take a look at the thread below. These interest rates only exist because of a political decision that will create the very reason they must go away.
Why the 1970's saw higher house prices and why that will not repeat once interest rates rise now.
"Based on the monthly mortgage data from Freddie Mac, in the 40 years from 1970 until 2010, the 30-year mortgage rate was above 10 percent for almost 11 years. The rate was between 8 and 10 percent for an additional 11 years. That gives 22 years of rates over 8 percent out of the 40-year period.
Ben Bernanke has been creating money from nothing. That is the recipe for inflation. Once inflation hits beyond just food and fuel it will be pushed back. The only way to tame inflation is through higher interest rates.
Consider what happens to what your your $500 a month mortgage only payment can buy at different interest rates.
A 30 year $100,000 mortgage costs $491.94 a month at 4.25%.
A 30 year $82,000 mortgage costs $491.63 a month at 6.00%
A 30 year $67,000 mortgage costs $491.62 a month at 8.00%
A 30 year $56,000 mortgage costs $491.44 a month at 10.0%
A 30 year $48,000 mortgage costs $493.73 a month at 12.0%
A 30 year $39,000 mortgage costs $493.13 a month at 15.0%
A 30 year $31,000 mortgage costs $492.56 a month at 19.0%
A 30 year $29,500 mortgage costs $492.95 a month at 20.0%
Someday the federal reserve will have to stop buying federal debt. The day that happens treasury rates will jump up. Mortgage rates are essentially determined by the 10 year treasury rate.
I can see a return to 70's style inflation and interest rates. Interest rates were
Take a look at the thread below. These interest rates only exist because of a political decision that will create the very reason they must go away.
Why the 1970's saw higher house prices and why that will not repeat once interest rates rise now.
"Based on the monthly mortgage data from Freddie Mac, in the 40 years from 1970 until 2010, the 30-year mortgage rate was above 10 percent for almost 11 years. The rate was between 8 and 10 percent for an additional 11 years. That gives 22 years of rates over 8 percent out of the 40-year period.
- Jason Webb, "jasonwebb"
- Contributions:65
If you are looking at the Phoenix market, I would say time is running out to get the good deals. Looking at the detailed market data, the second bottom of the Market was August 2011. Since August, pricing has been going up. There have been no significant price increase, but a definite upward trend. The availability of homes is way down, especially in the under $150K range.
The monthly number of foreclosures peaked over two years ago. Arizona has worked through the bulk of foreclosures. Still plenty to come, but not in the numbers we previously seen. (Based on loans currently in default.) The number of foreclosures also down due to banks approving short sales at a much greater rate. The stuff that makes it to foreclosure is less attractive to buyers.
The great prices we have and lack of inventory is making this a very competitive market. This is going to slowly drive prices up. If you are wonder if now is a good time to buy, the simple answer is yes. Are prices going to drop again? No one can say for sure, but I doubt we will see prices like this again any time soon if ever.
The monthly number of foreclosures peaked over two years ago. Arizona has worked through the bulk of foreclosures. Still plenty to come, but not in the numbers we previously seen. (Based on loans currently in default.) The number of foreclosures also down due to banks approving short sales at a much greater rate. The stuff that makes it to foreclosure is less attractive to buyers.
The great prices we have and lack of inventory is making this a very competitive market. This is going to slowly drive prices up. If you are wonder if now is a good time to buy, the simple answer is yes. Are prices going to drop again? No one can say for sure, but I doubt we will see prices like this again any time soon if ever.
- Mack McCoy
- Contributions:1115
SnowDesert, you're 'way overthinking this.
Putting aside the argument as to whether the President of the United States is a Secret Socialist or Capitalist Tool, the foreclosure spigot is not being controlled to benefit him.
Market timing involves a lot of guesswork about the future, and there has been a lot of research and many books written on the subject, but I think that when it comes to predicting local real estate, what matters most is predicting demand. It's kind of easy to project supply, but it's awful difficult to predict demand.
All the best,
Putting aside the argument as to whether the President of the United States is a Secret Socialist or Capitalist Tool, the foreclosure spigot is not being controlled to benefit him.
Market timing involves a lot of guesswork about the future, and there has been a lot of research and many books written on the subject, but I think that when it comes to predicting local real estate, what matters most is predicting demand. It's kind of easy to project supply, but it's awful difficult to predict demand.
All the best,
- Vince Curtis, "SoCal Appraiser"
- Contributions:4699
Hope for the best but expect the worst.
- ConnieK_Oklahoma
- Contributions:2899
It. Is really a local issue. Local jobs and conditions tell more about a market than national. It's good here locally and looks to be holding steady
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21455
Well, Roberto Ribas has been watching the Phoenix market pretty closely, and he started "buying" last year, and is still buying.
But you still need to watch such things as price to rent ratio.
It certainly isn't going to be "bouncing" like a ball off a basketball backstop if that is what you mean by "rebound". But Roberto has implied that we are close enough to the bottom to take the risk, and the rental returns are sufficient to make it worthwhile.
I would click on his "contact me" on his profile if you need more guidance in that market. He is a math professor at the local college in addition to a Real Estate Agent and investor, so it is not like he is ignoring the numbers.
But you still need to watch such things as price to rent ratio.
It certainly isn't going to be "bouncing" like a ball off a basketball backstop if that is what you mean by "rebound". But Roberto has implied that we are close enough to the bottom to take the risk, and the rental returns are sufficient to make it worthwhile.
I would click on his "contact me" on his profile if you need more guidance in that market. He is a math professor at the local college in addition to a Real Estate Agent and investor, so it is not like he is ignoring the numbers.
- Greg Von Herzen, GRI,MCNE, "vhproperties"
- Contributions:1427
This is probably a function of the broader economy, over which presidents have very little to no control over - as most economists will tell you (and even former presidents themselves). And it is a local concern. The job market in your particular area is more likely to determine the sales volume than any incentive the federal government is going to throw out to spur temporary increases in sales.
Prices are slightly rising at this time in Phoenix. I am going to the foreclosure auctions this week to try to buy a couple more homes, as unless the numbers change, they will be worth more in a few years, plus the rental income is pretty good at today's prices.
we have 25,000 homes in the foreclosure pipeline now, down from over 50,000 1.5 years ago.
Also, supply is down to around 19,000 for sale now, with roughly 7000 purchase a month.
I'm not anticipating a sudden bubble in home prices, and factors could change. But without change, we will be out of the foreclosure crisis in the next 1 to 3 years, and probably out of the short sale big numbers in around 5 years. meanwhile, if i get 10% rental return on a property, I'm willing to buy every good deal I can get today.
we have 25,000 homes in the foreclosure pipeline now, down from over 50,000 1.5 years ago.
Also, supply is down to around 19,000 for sale now, with roughly 7000 purchase a month.
I'm not anticipating a sudden bubble in home prices, and factors could change. But without change, we will be out of the foreclosure crisis in the next 1 to 3 years, and probably out of the short sale big numbers in around 5 years. meanwhile, if i get 10% rental return on a property, I'm willing to buy every good deal I can get today.
- Rita A. Walker, "Rita Walker"
- Contributions:277
Get ready for an influx of foreclosures. Comps are changing in neighborhoods from the time the home goes on the market, till the time it is contracted.
The unfortunate part is that the Sellers are not always ready to part with their homes for the current value ... so they sit.
The good news is, there are Buyers. First time Buyer incentive programs are available and are being taken advantage of buy those new Buyers. There are investors also buying REOs and refurbishing them, just in time for those first time Buyers.
Move up Buyers are also buying. They are more conservative then in past years, so the sale of pre-owned homes is up.
The unfortunate part is that the Sellers are not always ready to part with their homes for the current value ... so they sit.
The good news is, there are Buyers. First time Buyer incentive programs are available and are being taken advantage of buy those new Buyers. There are investors also buying REOs and refurbishing them, just in time for those first time Buyers.
Move up Buyers are also buying. They are more conservative then in past years, so the sale of pre-owned homes is up.
- Katherine Cannon, "highheeledhomeowner"
- Contributions:107
Seems like everyone has a different answer to that question. But, what I'm seeing lately is inventory is low (at least in the Seattle area). It's actually more of a sellers market up here, and I'm seeing plenty of multiple offer situations. It feels like things are heating up, at least in the first time home buyer price range in this area..
I try and read as much real estate news and articles as I can, and everyone seems to be predicting a pretty flat 2012, with possible increases in 2013.
I wouldn't be surprised if we were at "bottom" of home values, but I'm not expecting a quick rise in prices either!
I try and read as much real estate news and articles as I can, and everyone seems to be predicting a pretty flat 2012, with possible increases in 2013.
I wouldn't be surprised if we were at "bottom" of home values, but I'm not expecting a quick rise in prices either!
- Susan Lehmkuhl, "KUHLteam"
- Contributions:61
It depends on what "expert" you talk to....I read an article just this morning by Corelogic saying that 2012 will be the year we turn the corner in the real estate market. Other "experts" say we are in this for another 2-3 years.
That being said, there is definatily less inventory. The market is becoming more competitive. If a property is priced right and in good condition, it moves quickly.
Susan Lehmkuhl
Associate Broker
[contact information removed by Zillow moderator]
- Wes Black
- Contributions:509
I believe housing market is rebounding but it has nothing to do with Obama administration. It does however have to do with a slow rebounding economy, upward trend of the stock market, and improvement in consumer sentiment readings.
Housing market on the rebound?
Stating a discriminatory preference in an advertisement for housing is illegal. If you think this content is discriminatory or otherwise inappropriate and feel it should be removed from Zillow, please let us know by completing the information above.
We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.