How Far have Prices Really Dropped in San Francisco?

Jan-Jun 2006-Jan-Jun 2009 Single Family Home Trends – San Francisco 94115

Real estate trends in the Bay Area and San Francisco do not always reflect local activity. To illustrate, let's look at some data for one San Francisco neighborhood:  94115.  Overall median prices in this area fell 24% (price/square foot fell 21%), from Jan-June 2006 to 2009.   However, there are several problems with this comparison and when we dig deeper, we find some prices actually ROSE during this period.

Since 94115 includes several different neighborhoods:  Pacific Heights, Lower Pacific Heights, Anza Vista, Japantown, and the Western Addition, price differences between these areas can distort the overall changes.  Overall median sales prices fell more in Lower Pacific Heights (53%) than in Pacific Heights (43%).

We can also look at the types of sales to get a more accurate depiction of the sales activity.  Within particular price ranges, median prices actually went up 20% for $1-2MM properties, while $4-5MM properties are down 13%.  Median prices in the $2-3MM and $3-4MM ranges were fairly stable, with prices up 1% and down 2%, respectively.

Property size provides another interesting comparison.  When we compare properties using the number of bedrooms, we see median prices are actually up 12% for 3 bedroom homes, correlating with the increases we see in $1-2MM price range.  While 4 bedroom prices are down 11%, much larger homes with 5+ bedrooms are down 37%, higher than the $4-5MM range (down 13%) since the 5+ bedrooms includes homes selling for over $5MM.
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September 21 2009 - Pacific Heights
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Bay area home prices was drop 6% Aug. 2009 from July 2009, because of the buyers are reserve the money for the labor day in Las Vegas and it gonna drop 5% more each month until the new years for same reason, they reserve the money for the holidays.
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September 21 2009
I track exactly this metric on my website, www.RealDataSF.com.  It's one thing to look at median values, or year to year sales changes, but it's also useful just to know how far we've dropped from all-time highs.

While I agree with the Laura's comments about different segments of the market behaving differently, after looking at a lot of data, I've come to believe that looking at what's happening to San Francisco as a whole is valuable and reflects what's going on in particular areas.

For example, Noe Valley -- where I live -- was supposed to be immune from the slump.  Not so.  It turns out that Noe Valley has fallen further -- 30% from its all-time high vs.  19% for the city as a whole (this is through August).  My chart is here.

http://www.pegasusventures.net/wordpressblog/2009/09/16/focus-on-noe-valley/

And here's a chart showing how SF home prices have dropped from their all-time highs vs.  the S&P 500:

Great question!  This is my first post on Zillow.  I'll be back often.
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November 11 2009
 
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