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- How Low will it Go?
How Low will it Go?
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Aratinga
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Background info on the property: SFH, zoned for horses, 4bd/3ba, approx. 2500sf, built in late 1970s. Largest floorplan in an equestrian community. A home down the street with the same floorplan sold for $799K exactly one year ago. Several other homes in the same tract of various smaller floorplans have sold for between $650K and $750K in the past 18 months.
When that $799K house sold last year, lots of other homes in the tract immediately went up for sale (owners saw lots of dollar signs, apparently!). This house is the last one remaining unsold; another of the same floorplan was listed at $735K for months and just went off the market (listing expired, I assume). The house I'm watching went on the market initially for $775K; then dropped to $750K; then to $735K; listing was passed to another realtor, who dropped it to $699K; then dropped to $675K one month ago, and dropped today to $659K.
The house has been vacant that entire time; the owner's got to be taking a bath on it. My question is this: What do you think this house will "bottom out" at? If you take the most recent comp sale ($799K for that floorplan), it's already dropped 17.5% in value in one year. Is it going to drop another 15%? 20%? 30% or more?? If I were to buy this house today at its asking price, how upside-down would I be on it in a year or two?
Gurus, polish up your crystal balls and make your predictions!
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