Profile picture for mrneverfit

How do you come to your Zestimates, and why is my property value dropping right now in Fontana, Ca.

  • August 18 2014 - Fontana
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Answers (4)

Profile picture for blank screen EXILED
They do list San Bernardino County; I thought I posted the link; but must be another thread (I think Johnathan was looking at "Metro's" instead)....

http://www.zillow.com/howto/DataCoverageZestimateAccuracyCA.htm



50% of sales in the county for the first fiscal quarter of 2014 came within +/-9% of the estimate prior to the sale.    15.4% were not within +/-20%.  27.5% were within +/-5%.

Though we don't know the distribution, assuming a bell shaped distribution would not the that far off.
  • August 18 2014
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Hi mrneverfit, I agree with Mr. Ames; I would suggest the same page :) Although the Zestimates are a cool tool to use, there will never a substitute for an experienced, local Realtor taking time to analyze the market in your immediate area. I actually just presented that Zestimate explanation page to my agents in our last meeting and went over the accuracy in our area, which happens to be the same as yours. They don't specifically list San Bernardino County, but they do list Riverside County (which, along with SB County, makes up the entire Inland Empire) and Los Angeles County. Their own accuracy rating for Riverside County is a mere 2 out of 5...which translates to mean that only 59.3% of Zestimates are within 10% of the ultimate sales price. So 4 out of 10 of those Zestimates are not even within 10% of the market value. 10% of the sales price in the Fontana area can average anywhere from $30,000-$40,000.

So although this does not necessarily explain why your Zestimate may be fluctuating, hopefully it will help you understand that the Zestimate was never meant to be a reflection of the precise market value of your home. So don't let the little fluctuations or accuracy worry you too much :)  

I hope this helped :)
  • August 18 2014
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Profile picture for blank screen EXILED
A dropping estimate doesn't mean a dropping value.  The tolerance margin is quite wide and fluctuations around the nominal within the tolerance range is quite normal and expected.  SO, sometimes too high, sometimes too low, sometimes rises to quickly, and sometimes rapidly drops.  For a more accurate number, you can do various kinds of smoothing on the trend; for example, take the 12 month running average, and back shift it 6 months to align with the market.  But then of course you loose the most recent market changes.

Perhaps better is to download the index trends for the area, and scale the closest match for a known value (sold price...) and date.
http://www.zillow.com/research/data/

Zillow doesn't apply any smoothing as it would distort the index trends, which are created from the median of the estimates in the selected region.
  • August 18 2014
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Profile picture for MatAmes
Hello!

All of your answers about the whacky world of Zestimates can be found here: http://www.zillow.com/zestimate/

 
  • August 18 2014
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