How do you see general Seattle area home values looking in five years?

My take is that values will decrease about 5% in '12, be flat in '13, then begin to increase as the economy stabilizes a bit. I anticipate that a home in 2016 would be up about 16% over today's value. What thinkest thou? 
  • September 25 2011 - Seattle
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Answers (4)

Profile picture for nwhome.us
Well, here we are a year later with just 2 weeks until the presidential election.  According to Zillow the Seattle Home Value Index has increased 7.2% Y-o-Y, ending in August.  And that's without the narcissistic approach of the republicans.
Seattle has Boeing, Microsoft, the U of Washington, Amazon, Nordstrom and the entire sphere of small businesses that support these growing enterprises.
If Mitt's investor group hadn't moved most of Delphi offshore we might not be one of the few cities with such good numbers.
  • October 20 2012
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Profile picture for the_country_hick
What makes you think the economy will recover by that date? It could be a lot longer before it does recover. It could recover tomorrow.

There is an issue you may not have considered when you thought about this. Once the economy recovers interest rates should rise. A 2% increase is not unreasonable. When interest rates go from 5% to 7% buying power drops by 23.7%. In essence that will turn a $200k mortgage payment into a $153k mortgage payment with the same amount being paid out of pocket.

As interest rates are likely to go up at least 2% in the next five years if not much more and house prices are determined by monthly payments it is impossible to guess what prices could be.
  • September 25 2011
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Profile picture for sunnyview
Boy I don't know. It looks like it might have a bit more than 5% to give back here, but the drops in the market may very well depend on the strength of the job market there to support housing at it's current price level.
  • September 25 2011
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I don't see values coming down much in Seattle unless the economy gets worse or rates go up a lot.  You can often buy for as much as renting right now, and investors are starting to snap up the better deals. 

I predict that once the economy improves, people go back to work, and the market seems stable and the media starts being positive on things, there will be a bit of a boom due to all the pent up demand for the last few years.

I predict a small bump, then an appreciation of about 2-3 percent per year
 after that.  So, I would predict prices will be up in 5 years by about 10%.  Of course it will vary.  I would say Ballard, for example will be up about 15%   Tukwila on the other hand, will probably only be up maybe 5%.  And Federal Way, while no longer having really cheap entry level homes, will not be much at all 
  • September 25 2011
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