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How long will the decline of home prices continue?

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Is this a good time to buy a home or should wait to see even lowerprices

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January 19 - West San Jose

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Pasadenan
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Interesting....

though the terms "loser", "freak", "jesus", "born again", "hypocracy", "holier", and "sterotypical" do not seem to apply.

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June 16

SoCal BubbleBrain
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Sunny
Â I will agree with you. He is your stereotypical 'Jesus FREAK' if you will. The type that prays (and preys) for your then talks smack behind your back. Check out his wonderful selection of pure holier than you born again freaks found on his myspace page. Nice tats and t-shirts. The hypocrisy runs thick. Phoney as MOFO.

Â http://www.myspace.com/424115059

Hey marcos are you still searching for misses right?? You don't even have a college education for 'Christ's' sake. FREAK LOSER.Â

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June 16

sunnyview
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Well shoot. I obviously missed it. Sorry about that. Maybe I need that second cup of coffee this morning to read subtle posts ;)

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Linda Strasberg, "L Strasberg"
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change is constant!

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Pasadenan
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It was not intended as a "defense"; it was intended as a subtle hint of a possible effective change in stratagy.

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sunnyview
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Pasa, no need to to defend yourself. The situation is pretty clear.
Mr. Monteiro, vicious personal attacks and quoting the scripture in the same post doesn't sit well with me as they seem incompatible. Zillow is not about that anyway. You obviously have your opinion and have a right to discuss it as you please. I would make a suggestion though. I think it would benefit you to remain professional when you post and refrain from personal nastiness. A good argument does not need it and it makes you look rather unpleasant.

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June 16

arnie84
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Maybe it is just me but when ever Marco Monteiro makes a post I feel like saying "AMEN". I feel like he is posting a prayer on how he wants things to be rather then how things really are???

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Pasadenan
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"tripple digits" -

Yes, similar chart 164 times, out of 306 images, if someone bothered to read every post and has been around that long. And Zillow has separate links to each one of these individual image posts.

The first was posted Feb 27, 2008:

http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i0/i772/ISys9u65hdqvfn.jpg

So, you can compare the charts to see what has happened since.

And you want to know what was said about it at the time?
Great-Reasons-Not-To-Wait-

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Pasadenan
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"there is a sucker born every minute" -

Yes, that is certainly what many sales people would like to believe, and they certainly seem to work very hard to try to create them or manipulate them!

Of course there were some very good threads about why people visit this website and why people post on these boards over a year ago. If someone was interested, they could use the "find" at the top of the page (that is no longer labeled "find").

And I've already clearly stated on other posts why I'm at this website, and what I'm looking for, and why I post, and what I'll be doing in the near future with my posts.

And it is pretty clear why some sales people post here, which is entirely different than many of the more helpful sales people.

"Wit" and "Inteligence" and "affirmation of others" has nothing to do with it. That is just "psychobabble".

Really, someone wants to compare 12 helpful votes and 5 years "experience" to almost 1000 helpful votes and well over 2 decades of experience plus over a decade of business ownership?

What part of "I don't qualify for the credit because I own a home" does the person not understand?

And he claims to be "humble" by advertising that he is a pychologist, philosopher, spiritual leader, investor, business man and eutrepreneur?

And he claims to be pasionate about people too? The only thing I observe any passion about is money.

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June 16

nvchaz
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Marco,

Pasa is a well-known nut-case. You shouldn't give him credence by a response.

He is also a known stalker so I would stay away from him if I were you.

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June 16

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"As in the quarter ending in March. Much has happened since then, it is June after all. You're nearly an entire quarter behind in data. So IF values have leveled off NOW you wouldn't see it on that graph."
LOL! from 200K in 1997 to 700K in 2006, I hardly think there any reasons why we have leveled off at 500 or 600K today. Call it a pause for now if you want.

I will skip quoting scripture...
and quote WC Fields...
"there is a sucker born every minute"

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It may be hard for some to look back to 1997 when typical prices in West San Jose were say $200K for 2000 sq ft home.. or $100/sq ft or so. Those same home inflated well past $600-700K for no other reason than public's irrational behavior.
Slowly but surely we are undoing all the damage that was created by both the tech stock and RE bubble of the last 10+ years.

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West, not just the graph but the data below the graph in the link which provides the further detail trends and comparison to inflation.
Here is some other links you may wish to read up on.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_housing_bubble

This bubble actually started much earlier than most would like to believe.
We have a long way to go in California.

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June 16

Marco Monteiro, "Marco Monteiro"
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Marco Monteiro, "Marco Monteiro"

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@PasadenanYou show your absurd arrogance and absolute ignorance when you reply as you have. First, no one said to read everyone's post on Zillow but that if you're going to object to someone's opinion you should at least know what they're talking about and make valid arguments. You've made no original point of your own instead insisting on random foolish assumptions with no intellectual backing and trying to dehumanize someone with a valid point of view. It's really a weak strategy for intellectual debate. Most crocked politicians use the same tactics. You're pride and slanderous mouth is your own downfall.

"The LORD's curse is on the house of the wicked,    but he blesses the home of the righteous.
He mocks proud mockers
   but gives grace to the humble.
The wise inherit honor,
   but fools he holds up to shame."
Proverbs 3:33-35 (NIV)

You tell westridge that he didn't "get it" and "you just don't bother to look at the details" but failed to do so yourself. You're looking at a chart of the first quarter of 2009. As in the quarter ending in March. Much has happened since then, it is June after all. You're nearly an entire quarter behind in data. So IF values have leveled off NOW you wouldn't see it on that graph. In your own words "ignoring obvious data is foolishness", so I guess that would make you a fool by your own admission.

The only CON ARTIST and LIAR here is the one named Pasadenan who purports to possess real knowledge on any topic of relevance. Here's a unique thought for you - how about you pack up and move out of your mom's basement. Find an apartment and get a dog. Maybe walk the dog at a local park and meet a girl. Try to win her heart like a gentleman and maybe she'll be your girlfriend. Spend less time behind a computer screen. Read a book or two and get a clue.

"Even a fool is thought wise if he keeps silent,
       and discerning if he holds his tongue."Proverbs 17:28 (NIV)

Have you noticed that I respond to you directly and according to who you are as a person. When you get a chance go read Galatians (Chapter 6) and James (Chapter 3).

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Pasadenan
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No Westridge, you did not "get it"... the chart is "not the same", it is continuously updated with newer postings having additional data that was not on the previous postings. You just don't bother to look at the details.

Really, look at the full size image posted so that you can read the axis labels and data values.

http://images2.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i2676/ISuwfphfitbb8j.jpg

If values in Napa, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Rosa, Stockton, or Vallejo had "leveled out" instead of continuing to decline, you would see it on that updated graph.

The chart not only makes it clear how much more you can expect the values to drop in each of those areas, but also how quickly.

For those that never learned to read graphs, I would suggest it is well worth your time to study it. Ignoring obviously available relivant data is pure foolishness.

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June 15

Pasadenan
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Of course I ignore a large part of everyone's posts! I'm not about to read over 220 thousand threads with an average of about 10 posts each, totaling well over two MILLION posts!!!! Is someone crazy or something??? At an average of 200 words per post, at 180 words per minute, that would take over 37 thousand hours or about 926 work weeks, or about 19 work years, PLUS the time to download the pages...
(Ok, I know you can read between 500 and 1000 words per minute and have T1 line data access...).

But if anyone posts foolishness, that I happen to read, and then keeps posting the same foolishness, of course I will comment on it. Of course I'm able to deal better with most CON ARTISTS; as I simply don't own a telivision and thus never have one on, and the only magazines I read are trade magazines.

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westridge88
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I wish I could recall how many times space asser has posted that chart...it could be in the triple digits...we got it gene.

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"Would you rather buy a $150,000 home at 5.5% or $135,000 at 8%?"

More like $600K at 5.5% or 350K at 8%.

After all prices went from 200K to well over 600K and still heading down to long term trend. Given the that sales over the past 10 years were driven, by Stock Option cash outs from 10 years ago plus Toxic Loans (which made up 60% of sales).

Regardless of where rates go! prices will continue to fall...

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sunnyview
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"Home ownership is not in the best interest of everyone given their current circumstances and market conditions." MMonteiro I would completely agree with you on that point. I do not expect agents to be financial planners for their clients or for them to talk clients of of buying in an unstable market. However, I do find it difficult to deal with some of the rhetoric that seems to get used by some agents to convince buyers to "buy now." It made me uncomfortable during the bubble and it still makes me uncomfortable now.

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Prices still falling.

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

and have a long way to fall even in West Side of San Jose...

Oh you havent seen anything yet...

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Marco Monteiro, "Marco Monteiro"
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Marco Monteiro, "Marco Monteiro"

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@nvchaz
Thank you. It is all food for thought. Open discussions help people see opposing views and the reasoning behind them. I think we'd all agree that what we ultimately want is for people to do well and make great real estate investment decisions.

@Pasadena
I would match wits with you Sir but you appear to be unarmed. You're behavior and beliefs are quite evident from the manner in which you ignore large parts of my posts. You have a pattern of defending opinions and concepts that you yourself have not fully thought out or educated yourself upon. It is quite evident by your response on this thread and others where you have failed to make any substantial point or contribution to the discussion. People like Azrob have taken time to think about their position and research the matter therefore although I may disagree with him I can also respect his position. You on the other hand reduce to personal attacks that you can't possibly have any evidence for as a means to feel like "one of the big boys".
"If Marcos was as good a "Pitch Man" as he thinks he is, he wouldn't bother posting anything here as he would be so extremely busy..."
The only one suggesting that I think I'm a "Pitch Man" is you which suggests, at least in part, that you were moved by my arguments and find yourself compelled to post some form of response in order to defend your position. On another note it really doesn't take much time or effort to respond to posts when one thinks clearly. Obviously, I don't spend as much time on Zillow as you do but apparently I do trigger a lot of emotional responses.
In regards to being a "a deceived cronic liar that has lied to himself so often that he has no clue he is lying" and "he has no clue what delayed gratification" I'll accept them as unfounded hyperbole.
When you've sat across a couple who had their heart set on buying a home for their growing family and suggest that they would perhaps be better off delaying their purchase in order to be better positioned for the transition - throwing away a ten thousand dollar commission check in the process - then we can have a discussion about ethics and integrity. Until you've had similar temptations presented to you on a regular basis, developed the self-discipline and self-denial to gracefully turn away then I would recommend you stay away from character defamation and make a solid, reasonable and logical argument.

@jal74Actually, no I haven't "failed the easy question" as you suggest. The flaw in your argument is that you can only suggest that it was a bad time to buy when looking at it in hindsight. I have also never suggested that they were good prices in those times, in fact I've argued in a previous post that wasn't the case. Everyone is a financial genius when looking at historical data. Tell me where the absolute bottom is so I know where, when and what to invest my dollars in. If I'm able to secure an investment property at 60-70 cents on the dollar of today's fair market price then I'm willing to take the risk of further price declines as I'm slightly hedged against the loss. Coupled with positive cash flow from the rental income and yes, it becomes a great time to buy now. If I buy now instead of waiting until next year to follow the market I benefit from the cash flow and tax consequences (e.g. paper losses offsetting overall income). Considering that I'd only be risking the capital I invested it would be much like investing in any stock certificate - paying dividend so long as I hold the asset and the property is occupied. Like I've said before not everything is black and white. It depends on the individual as well as the product. Just because I don't try to impress upon you some shade of superior financial competency does not mean that I am unable to be competent or that I cannot see beyond my next commission check.

@azrob
That was a commendable and respectable response. It goes to highlight that we all make the best decision possible for ourselves and our loved ones given the information available to us, our personal beliefs and our future goals.

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Pasadenan
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As for his reasons to buy:
"No one really knows"? --> Of course many do; your ignorance is no excuse.
1) Prices are very low --> not for that $1.5 million home that sold for only $35k in 1960.

2) "Interest rates are also at historical lows right now "--> I know many that got 3% fixed interest mortgages a few decades ago, and who cares if it is "low" if the government is driving the rates even lower in the near future? The government was even selling T-bills with 0% interest last year and people were buying, so there are lenders that are willing to lend at lower interest.

3) "There's an $8,000 Federal tax credit available to you if you buy before December" --> THAT is a complete LIE and you KNOW IT! It is NOT "available to me" as I own a home! Even if I was one that had sold their home, it would still not be available as that is only for people that haven't owned for at least 2 years.

4) "If you are a first-time homebuyer and use a Realtor as your buyers agent you may qualify for the California Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Fund's Mortgage Protection Program which will pay you $1,500/month for 6 months to help you make your mortgage payments if you lose your job." --> Anyone can qualify for extra "insurance" if they want to pay for it; but what good would 6 months at only $1.5k per month be if your required payment is $3k and you can't find work for 1 year as has been the case for many people I know??? Besides, I already told you I don't qualify as "first time buyer", so it is another pointless argument that doesn't apply to over 80% of the people posting and reading here (if you bothered to pay attention to who you were writing to...).

5) "Choice! With many homes on the market you have more options to choose from." --> I have always had the "choice" of over 30 million homes that I could buy from. Just because you can only see a "choice" of only about 1 thousand doesn't mean that you have any knowledge of "choice". Besides, what good is a "choice" if over 98% of what is "offered" is not even close to what you want? That is no "choice" at all! That is like saying that you have a selection of 5000 pairs of jeans, but 98% of them are Levi's 501 relaxed fit straight leg button up blue denum in size 34x36. So what if you can "choose"? More "choice" only means the market is saturated and the value will drop faster, which means buying too soon is the same as throwing $10 bills into a fire as fast as you can.

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Pasadenan
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If Marcos was as good a "Pitch Man" as he thinks he is, he wouldn't bother posting anything here as he would be so extremely busy with his 2,000 clients a month, with over half of those buying properties at over $5 million, and over 5,000 clients on a "waiting list".

But he is nothing but a deceived cronic liar that has lied to himself so often that he has no clue he is lying.

He hasn't convinced anyone but himself, and has left off the most important reason not to buy:
1) You can buy the exact same thing 9 months from now for 20% less.

Is he really been indoctrinated so much into the "now" generation and mentality that he has no clue what delayed gratification is, and the actual cost of buying too soon?

And those other "excuses" he gave? They are not good excuses for anyone that I can tell.

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nvchaz
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I think he makes some good points.

He's just not embittered by the past, as you are jal74.

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jal74
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1) When you don't want to
2) When you haven't saved enough money for a down-payment, closing costs and (in my opinion) 6 months of reserves
3) When you're uncertain about your job security
4) When you're possibly going to be required to move from the area
5) When you are comfortable living a "renters" lifestyle and can do without the additional costs of home ownership
6) When you don't have a significant root to the area (family, friends or strong attraction to the location)
7) When homeownership and it's cost don't fit into your long term financial goals (savings, investment, retirement, etc.)

Marco

The above list is of course absolutely meaningless. What happends if say person (a) met all the above conditions and in 2005 wanted to buy an $800,000 condo in Miami with 20% down payment and an additional $200,000 in cash savings and other financial products. Fast forward to 2009 and that condo appraises for $375,000.

According to your defintion, 2005 condo purchase in Miami was a good idea. According to me, it was a financial disaster. 2005 was not a good time to buy real estate. Nor was 2006, 2007, 2008 and so far 2009 is not shaping up all that well either.

So excuse me when you come to the conclusion that that you are capable of offering financial advice. Your not. You obviously failed the easy question, just like all REA's that know nothing beyond their next commission

Regards

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notyouravgjoe
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I think now is a good balance between prices and interest rates. Prices may fall but rates are going up. Would you rather buy a $150,000 home at 5.5% or $135,000 at 8%?

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June 15

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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Marco:

The buyers that bought my properties had agents of their own. I'm sure those agents also agreed that it made sense for them to buy, though of course it turned out not to be the case. I'm not an altruist, I am a business man and educator. [and for historical reference, I even wrote on here, over a year ago, when one of my ex-properties went into foreclosure, and sold for less than I bought it for more than a decade ago!]

My cousin wanted to buy my last rental property two years ago, his dad all but begged me to sell it to him, but I didn't. By then, it was clear the market had gone off the cliff, and would freefall, I can afford to keep it forever as a rental, it would have been a crippling financial blow to him, as a young college student. I've turned down litterally dozens and dozens of commission opportunities by advising people not to buy, but my conscience is quite clean.

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nvchaz
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The window of opportunity that I have described in previous posts may be closing earlier than I thought. I predicted Oct-Nov timeframe, but the market fundamentals are so abolutely bleak that the dead cat might be reaching the epogee of her bounce very soon.

Commodities should be continuing to spike through Nov. but Alcoa took a big hit today.

Glad I'm in escrow and I will be breathing a big sigh of relief when I close.

I am convinced that all that Geithner can do now is play Goebbels and continue the hype.

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arnie84
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8) were still in a recession, jobs being lost, inventory on the rise do to higher interest, bla bla bla its all been said!!! "when is it not a good time to buy"? anwser: never except right now!

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June 15

Marco Monteiro, "Marco Monteiro"
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Marco Monteiro, "Marco Monteiro"

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@jal74Just for fun I'll answer the question "when is it not a good time buy?"

1) When you don't want to
2) When you haven't saved enough money for a down-payment, closing costs and (in my opinion) 6 months of reserves
3) When you're uncertain about your job security
4) When you're possibly going to be required to move from the area
5) When you are comfortable living a "renters" lifestyle and can do without the additional costs of home ownership
6) When you don't have a significant root to the area (family, friends or strong attraction to the location)
7) When homeownership and it's cost don't fit into your long term financial goals (savings, investment, retirement, etc.)

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Zillow All-Star

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Zillow All-Star

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