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If California's home's prices keep go up, Should I quit my job?

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The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California in May was $267,570, compared to $256,700 the previous month and $384,540 in May of last year, according to CAR.
"The statewide median price rose for the third consecutive month in May, posting the largest monthly increase on record for the month of May, according to statistics dating back to 1979," said CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "Nearly all regions in the state reported positive month-to- month changes in median price."
http://www.dailynews.com/business/ci_12689168

Why I'm needed to work so hard !!!?
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June 25 - US
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Yes, you still need to work to pay for your mortgages.
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June 25
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I'm working for my happiness, present time and in future! Mine and my children.
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June 30
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Pasadenan

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Really, there is a major difference between "worrying" and "working".  Jesus said nothing against "working".  He was even accused by the religious leaders of "working on the Saboth" on more than one occasion.

But what are you "working" for?  To be the slave of the "lender"?  (Proverbs 22.7)
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June 30
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Pasadenan

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But they still "work" to gather their food and make their nests; only the very  young have their mothers bringing them the food.

As for the taxes; Even Jesus paid the head-tax.
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June 29
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Jesus said, "Consider the ravens: They do not sow or reap, they have no storeroom or barn; yet God feeds them. And how much more valuable you are than birds!" (Luke 12:24).
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June 29
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Pasadenan

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If you pay the mortgage off, you don't need to work to pay the mortgage payments; but you still need to eat, pay taxes, pay for utilities, and do some maintenance.

And if prices rise?  That means the value of the dollar drops, which means it will cost more for utilities, food and maintenance materials.


Didn't Paul state that those that don't work shouldn't eat?  (2Th 3.10).

So, how long can you fast for?
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June 29
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Pasadenan

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Full size pie charts:
1999:
http://images3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i3169/IS13c1vhbixm6cj.jpg


1989:
http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i3169/IS13c1vhjf22e8z.jpg
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June 26
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Pasadenan

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Household income distribution in Pasadena, comparing 2000 Census Data to 1990 Census data (pie charts):




Obviously adjusted for inflation as the defintion of poverty and median household MSA income is adjust regularly
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June 26
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Pasadenan

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not the multiple ---> *note* the multiple
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June 25
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Pasadenan

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Link for full size image of Census Tract 4640 household income distribution:

http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i3169/ISuqn54fw0x40z.jpg

(Really, I don't care if someone is impressed or overwelmed; I'm simply asking the few math experts if they know of any reasonable way to do the curve fit I've been trying to do...)
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June 25
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Pasadenan

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Here is the income distribution from the 2000 Census for a Census tract at the South end of the city (that the movie industry has often pretended is San Mareno due to it's close proximity, similar character, and easier access for obtaining filming permits...), broken down by block group, as well as showing the Census Tract as a whole and comparision to the city as a whole:




Again, not the multiple peaks in the data implying the need for superposition of multiple normal distribution curves.  Also note how the median household income of this area is close to the upper quartile household income for the city, but not quite as close as "West Pasadena".
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June 25
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Pasadenan

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Link to full size image for legibility:

http://images3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i3169/IS13c1vc23yswpv.jpg
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June 25
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Pasadenan

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Here is a sample of income distribution from the 2000 Census, showing how a "normal distribution" or even "upper and lower chi" functions don't fit the data very, and the need for superposition of more than one curve.  You will note that most of the distribution curves have more than one peak; typically between 3 and 5.  You will also notice the economic segegation that occurs naturally within the city, even though there are households in poverty even in the wealthiest areas.

Really, if you don't understand the distribution and can't model it, you can't make good predictions about opportunities nor impacts.




Really, if someone comes up with a simple automatic curve fitting technique for such data, they will probably be an eligible candidate for a Nobel Prize.  There are many more applications than most people imagine.
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June 25
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Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

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Yes, westridge:

In many areas, prices are going up, and there is shortage of supply relative to demand. I would include just about every area in Phoenix under 150K in that group. Everything over 300K, the opposite is true, prices are still dropping. Over 500K are dropping faster now than ever before.

I believe we have enough pent up demand, and belief in a bottom, that the above mentioned trends will last most of this year.

However:
   1. Foreclosures are ramping up. We will likely break 5000 this month, a near record. Even with 5000 foreclosures, we will end the month with nearly 2000 more homes in the process than we began, due to a likely 8500 notice of trustee sales. Thus, even a record number of forelcosures is not enough to keep up with the process, and recent news of increasing 30/60/90 day delinquincies indicate this is going to go on for a long time. We have enough waiting buyers to pick off the foreclosures this month; maybe the next few months. But do you believe there are enough to pick up 5 or 6 thousand foreclosures even after the "spring selling season" end?
2. Interest rates. There are really only two scenarios: the fed raises interest rates somewhat soon, and indicates a desire to protect the dollar, or failing to do this, the world takes note and quits buying bonds at such low rates. In addition, at some point the Fed must unwind 300 billion in investments in long term bonds/ agency debt. Either rates go up 1.5 or 2 percent soon, or they go up a whole lot later. Pick your poison. Either scenario will slam housing prices again. [though the loss is somewhat mitigated by having an inplace fixed rate loan at recent low rates]

I believe inevitably, home prices are still going to go further down; Even the lowest price markets will likely break the two months ago lows, though probably not by more than 10 or so percent, while the pricier markets will see 30% plus drops from even today's values.
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June 25
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Pasadenan

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The photo was borrowed to assist with comments to a self proclaimed eutriprinuer.

I haven't looked at any statistics books for well over 20 years.
Besides, most of the curve fitting, histograms and error analyis I learned in Jr College Physics classes.  I have re-written the same least-squares curve fit program for multiple platforms and programing languages since then, and of course most better calculators already have that built in; but Excel makes it so easy that most people don't need anything else.  There is little that MathCad can do that Excel can't.  I even have an Excel worksheet that automatically fills out Suduko puzels, even if the 9 symbols are not numbers.
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June 25
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Titan said:  "Median aside, values have gone up recently. I have watched as comps for the same type of house have increased over the last couple of months."

This is an important comment as you are able to tell what your local area is doing.  I have noticed the same effect...listing and selling higher...and they are not taking very long to sell.  To each his own...everyone is entitled to their own opinion.  One thing is for certain...the doomers will have to change there view at some point during the cycle as we cant fall forever.  And to Spleng, Space Acer and Pasedenan....please dont post one of your stupid charts and add a linear trendline from the apex and show that it trends to zero in a few years...although you are tempted...dont bother.
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June 25
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After I think of Azrob's math, it was flawed before and now it's absolutely flawed.
For example if the lowest price for May is $30k, the highest is $1,290k.
The differential from one house to the next house is $30, since $1260k / 42k (May's houses sold) = $30.
Home in California in May was $267,570 compared to $256,700 the previous month.
The differential is $267,570-$256,700 = $10,870.
$10,870. / $30 = 362 houses in the prices range from $256,700 to $267,570.
There is no way that every of (362) these houses wasn't sold in May, And the probability fall in to the higher side of $267,570
and do consecutive as same for 3 months, even with California super lotto, the highest winner number still hadn't that much chance!
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June 25
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Pasadenan,,,stop freakin reading out of your grade 12 statistics book...its annoying. 
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June 25
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westridge88

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If you put Pasadenan's picture beside Space Acer's they could be twins.
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June 25
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Median aside, values have gone up recently. I have watched as comps for the same type of house have increased over the last couple of months. Although what I have watched was in the inland empire, I am only assuming that the rest of california has the same situation on average. But, once again, I think this is short lived.
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June 25
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Pasadenan

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B-splines are not used by Zillow; only Linear Regression.  (Look up LINEST function in your Excel program, expecially Example #3; multiple linear regression).

As to the "index" values and index trends; they are not "smothed"; they simply take the median for the area for each set of Z-estimates they make.  AzRob already explained how you determine a median.  the difference between Zillow's median the the CAR median is CAR only considers what sold that month, whereas Zillow uses the extrapulated value of all ownership units.

Though AutoCad does use B-splines to smooth curves, I find they take substantually more space and add no benifit.  I stopped using them 14 years ago.  And for data, they are more likely to distort the data than simplify it.


As to the trend curve provided; a one year trend is not very useful in a market that saw such huge bubble purchases.  You really need to look at the 5 or 10 year trends.  A temporary "plato" only means that government intervention and spring buying fever have temporarily delayed the inevitable decline.  The only thing the curve indicates is that values are not dropping this month, but have been consistently been dropping steeply up till this temporary plato.

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June 25
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"The mix of data can change the median."

As it did May, a greater percentage of higher end homes sold vs prior month. 





 
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June 25
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"rebound"

Rebound to what ?  Oh give me a break!  Definitely brainless.. 



 
 
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June 25
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Hi Pasadenan,
I think (just my guess) that the Zillow use B-splines to presentations their data as SUM of F(x), which is actually points Y = (y1+y2+y3+y4+y5+.......) / the number of Ys.
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June 25
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Pasadenan

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(Does anyone ever really "grade on the curve" {normal distribution} with only 30 students?  Do those teachers even have the skills and resources to determine the mean and standard deviation?  is such a small sample approprate for the use of such grading methods?  Do the majority of students really receive "C's"?  Do those teachers really give out D's and F's that readily?  Isn't it more important to measure wheither student's have grasped the concept and gained the skills rather than be compared to other classmates?)

(Yes, I know they all say "modified curve"; but most seem to set the breakpoint between letter grades fairly arbitrarily with no "standard" between different teachers).
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June 25
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Hi Pasadenan,
Follow is the graph from Zillow,  the lighter curve is presentation for the home prices of the community of 70,000 peoples. The lowest point is from March and goes, which is match with CA home's price.


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June 25
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Really, if the data set was sufficiently large, and data could not be randomly excluded, and the distibution actually followed a "normal distibution" (bell-shapped curve, error function...), the median would be the "average".  But still this gives no clue of the standard deviation and change in standard deviation over time.

But we all know that the data does not have a normal distibution.  The coefficients for the upper chi and lower chi functions are not the same.  And actually, it is not just a difference in the upper and lower distibutions, but a better approximation of the data would be 3 to 5 separate "normal distibutions" with different means and standard deviations super imposed.  But just try to find a curve fitting algorithm that does a good job of determining those coeficients!  And even if one could approximate a good curve fit for such a superposition; could one after determining the separate bell shaped curves determine which population groupls corresponded to those "normal distibutions"?

And wouldn't one still be better off using different upper and lower chi functions as it is obvious the values will not go below zero?

(Any suggestions from a mathmatician would be appreciated as I've been trying to find a good solution for this for at least 7 years as related to local census data).
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June 25
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Hi Azrob,
Your example is :
Median of (1,2,3,4,5, 20,30, 40, 50) is 5.
if the May home's price go down by 1. the number will be (0,1,2,3,4,19,29, 39, 49) the median will be 4, which is won't match with May data sales. since May data sales is increased, and your median number is decreased.
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June 25
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Pasadenan

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Fortunately, when Zillow provides a "median", it is not the median of what is  on the market, nor the median of what sold, but is the median of all ownership residental units in the area.  Also fortunately, the provide medians for an upper, middle and lower tier separately once every quarter for the various metropolitan areas but just dividing the number of units equally when sorted by value, allowing one to see movement of the upper and lower teirs separately from the whole.

It really is too bad that most realtors cannot comprehend such simple data and have to rely on CAR or NAR for their data spin.
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June 25
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Your math example had the flaw, since there is no activity on middle high to high end properties because of tighten of the credits..
The median calculation is:
April prices -> (1 2 3 4 5) median is 3.
May prices -> ( 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ) median is 5, since these numbers plus 1 (inflation) and the extend from lower end to middle of home prices. The peoples, who sell their houses and buy the other more expensive houses.
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June 25

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