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Not enough people will bail to make any real change in the RE market. The only thing that will happen is when prices fall low enough, everybody that can will start buying again.
I'm actually quite happy, despite all of the talk about Government Help, that the free market is doing it's job in the correction process. Wal Mart 101 ya know.
barrok obama i think over estimates the power of president, unlike the republicans, democrats think for themselves and bicker a lot more. republicans are more united.
that said the system is broken so i am all for giving him a shot.
also, all of the candidates are 'change prezidents' in one way or another, with their universal healthcare plans and what not. Hillary actually has the largest agenda for social reform, from what i can tell.
Bennye, I've been predicting a huge problem in the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year, along with many others here. It has nothing to do with who wins.
First, ONE of the peaks in the housing bust shows March to be the peak for those home mortgage rate increases. This takes about 6 mos to foreclose, which should show in September. More key increases will be coming next year for those with non-conventional loans.
Second, the govt will do their best to put a hold on 'out of control' inflation until after the election, which will postpone the real bad inflation until this winter. By postponing this problem, it will just make it worse.
If you check my profile, I did mention last year when I made my profile that the economy, not the war, would be the #1 issue come this election. There is no way McCain will win unless he stops talking about the war, and starts talking about the economy. Obama will have a tough time if he falls for the 'war topic', because it's really not the #1 issue for the people. I seriously doubt Obama will fall for this. Someone in his campaign (or Obama himself) knew enough to do the 'economy speech' and talk openly about the deregulation of the banks and the cause of this housing boom.
I don't see an Obama win making any meaningfull difference to real estate in the next 12 months. First off, the correction is proceeding, and would have 8 more months to run before the took the office. Then, whatever bailout he proposes would take a few months to get to congress and get in place. Staffing it up and getting it running will take a few more months. A year before anything at all, and against the real world hurricane force headwinds, by then Socal, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami etc will already have dropped what 40%, and the economy will be in a recession...
Good points,
I predict that there will be slight bump in the numbers due to the Stimulus Check trickle down. Also Gas prices will proabally ease twoards the end of summer. Watch for a 3rd quarter jump then a big fall. 1 st quarter 2009 will be ugly.
Obamillary McClinton! Precious! Classic! Halarious!!
As I said, doesn't matter who, they will have an 'out of control' mess to attach to their names.
And we will be able to tell "markets reacting negatively" from the current market by what signs?
as for that stimulus thing... i work in retail and while i did notice it (sales) picking up during the direct deposit phase i dont see the $900(average) as any meaningful number, not when the average person spends 35-70 times that amount over the course of the year, and especially not in the sectors that really are really going to feel the crisis. 1/4 of the checks for instance will go to walmart, now tell me who here thinks they are hurting? yeah alot of people are depositing their checks(at least partly) and yeah that is good for banks, but still the rebate thing is not really going to do anything except placify the angry people who are paying 4.50 for gas so they dont go all militia on them
bennye is either ALPINE OR DOOMERSNIGHTMARES IN NEW AVATAR.
Silent- No I am not - I am Bennye-
Yeah NTETS I agree the stimulus inpact will be minimal but there will be a slight bump. Enough to proabaly raise a few indicators and give Wall Street a little bump.
With The Stock Market in the toilet in 2009, why do you guys think investors with cash, would not look to Real Estate esp. in desireable areas like Socal, Florida etc.?
I don't think markets like democrats or republicans any better. The stock market is driven by expectations of fundamentals. This article says teh stock markets historically do better under democrats http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/21/markets/election_demsvreps/.
I doubt the Obama will ruin the stock market theory myself.
"The stock market is driven by expectations of fundamentals."
Thats my point exactly Mike- With a Mcain presidency the Wall Street will expecty the status quo. They will know what the Fundementals will be, and will be less anxious.
With Obama they will likley not know what the fundementals will be, thus the instability.
I am not advocating any president here, so dont get me wrong. I am simply trying to predict the impact a new administration of a diffrent party will have on Wallt street, and thus RE.
we will all die.
Heaven help the person even willing to take on the mess that this past administration has bestowed upon the next one. Doesn't matter if it is Republican or Democrat.......they will get nothing done and be digging themselves out the entire time. If they can bring any stability to the plate and get anything accomplished then imagine what could have happen had that kind of prez taken office after Clinton instead of A-hole Bush!
He didn't invent anything, esp the internet, my hub foams at the mouth when anyone says that about AL.
bennye,
I don't buy the McCain brings stability. I think everyone by now knows that Washington is dumb as a rock and McCain is Bush's 3rd term.
Here is what I think will happen when Obama becomes president: nothing.
- Obama will take 2 years to learn teh ropes. They will wrangle over health care for 2 - 4 years, maybe extending health care to 100% of children.
- The US will not draw down in Iraq. Instead they will support the current Iraq gains.
- There will be more candor in the military and less deaths.
- Iran will change president, but they will still keep going on their nuclear program.
- If there is another terrorist attack in the US, the democrats will respond like the republicans did. They will attack if they know where to attack, or they will go after them with covert troops like they did in the first WTC attack. Remember - everyone one of the terrorists in the first WTC has been tracked down and killed or jailed.
Just my opinion. Flame away.
Good points 3GirlVA
Everyone needs to remember that it isn't anti-American to complain and criticize the gov't, it shows you care, much like the parent that chooses to punish their kids for poor behavior, it is done out of love. There are so many wonderful citizens who try to make this a better country and no one made any difference in this world by being quiet and submissive. Shout it out loud.
no one made any difference in this world by being quiet and submissive.
Except Hillary
Oops, my bias is showing...I'm sorry.
I wanted Hillary to get elected pres so I would have a reason to change my "impeach billary" bumper sticker to an "impeach hillbilly" bumper sticker.
Seriously, I really don't beleive either could or will accomplish much at all without the support of congress.
So, there you have it.
Obama Wins, makes a bunch of changes, the stock market goes paranoid, and tanks.
McCain wins, it's status quo, the drop of the dollar continues, inflation skyrockets, the markets tank.
How about this, its easier: The markets tank. Period. Buy real estate.
This has been almost 100 years in the making. Politicians have been bribing us for decades with gimmes and pork projects and we vote for these schmucks every time. As soon as the rest of the world realizes the number one export the US has is it's fiat dollar, and sends them back to us, our dollar will be at par with the Mexican Peso, if not the Japanese yen!
And it wil be our fault, because we gave these pointy headed politicians permission to do this to us with our vote, year after year, decade after decade. It's not a Democrat or Republican thing, both sides have done this, and congress, regardless which side is in control, has proven they cannot control themselves.
Solution? Stay in commodities, especially real estate. Gold and silver are good for liquidity, until the government outlaws its ownership (again). Keep as litttle USD as necessary. Between now and 2012, methinks the shinola's gonna hit the fan!
Buy real estate, buy on your terms, to hold for cash flow (convert it to metals, ASAP!) and hold for the appreciation, albeit with weaker currencies.
The good news is, we're Americans, we can overcome this, but these political shenanigans need to be done away with.
Gee, was my bias showing? :-)
um...it doesn't matter if it is a repulican or democrat. Real Estate is Real Estate...Stocks are Stocks...does this really have anything to do with buying a home???
moot point. obama wont win.
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If Obama Wins- Prediction
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bennye
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If Barrak Obama wins the United States Election, the markets will react negatively. Markets like stability, and knowing what is coming next. A “change president” in every sense of the word like Obama, would likely institute sweeping changes in policy. Congressional elections are coming soon also and these are widely expected to swing Democratic as well.
The unease this would create could cause investors to pull back, and severely limit investment in the markets.
If this happens, the stock market will likely restrict considerably. At that point investors would start to look to hard assets like real estate.
As we all know in many markets prices have retaken what ever gains were made during the boom of 2002-2006. Homes are starting to be affordable again, and in the early months of 2009 prices will be even more attractive.
I think you know where I am going with this. Once market investors, flush with cash, from selling assets out of anxiety over a new administration, turn to real estate, we could see a drastic turnaround. Smart investors will try to time the market and get out before the elections are over, in order to maximize gains and minimize losses. Sometime after the 3rd quarter expect to see some gains in the market and then a fall off when profit taking occurs.
Flame away
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