Profile picture for mortimer1978

If i purchase a home, will I be able to get out of it in 3 years without a loss?

I plan on only being in Dallas for 3-4 years and although I would like to buy a townhome, I want to be able to get out of it with little loss.
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November 28 2009 - Dallas
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One more thought.  House prices are somewhat depressed so the answer should be yes but there is no sure thing.
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December 29 2009
I concue with Mr. Hayden, especially the part about the townhome.  Buy in a good area and remember there are only three things you need to consider when buying a home:  Location, Location, and of course location.  A great house next to a RR track will most likely not be a good deal when it comes time to sell.  Houses that are unusual may be very attractive to you but will also be difficult to sell when the time comes.  Stay away from anything less that three bedrooms.  Hope that helps.  If you want more information please advise.
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December 29 2009
If you approach it as an investment and are not concerned completely with how your furniture fits or what colors the walls currently are painted then you can find a great deal with equity from day one. The trick is to approach it with a business mindset. If you ran a gas station and gum is selling for $1 for you would need to buy it at a discount to make money. You would not buy it for $.99 because it had a great flavor, you would find one that costs $.50 that people were buying. Same for your house. I find that most poeple end up paying much more for properties because they want to see finished products instead of potential. Just because the prior owner has bad furniture, shag carpet and dark purple walls doesn't mean the house is one you must pass on. You will most likely need to find an ugly duckling in order to save some money because the average consumer walked right past that one even though some new carpet and paint would have brought the asking price up by $20k. I always use the following formula to make sure I get a good deal on my investment properties. I first determine what the house would sell for within 90 days of listing if it were fixed up. I get this number by talking with a local realtor and comparing the recent sales in the area. I will multiply that by 70%. From the 70% number I subtract out the cost to pay someone to fix it up. The remaining number is the most I will pay. It does not matter what the asking price is, I offer no more than the number in the figure. Sometimes it will take 10 to 15 offers but it much easier to get declined on 10-15 than to buy 1 that is a bad deal. I would also be cautious in buying townhouses. The quickest and easiest house to sell is a single family house built for the everyday person. That usually means a 3/2/2 around here and it is starting to shift to a 4/2/2 due to the rise of the personal computer taking up a room for an office. Of course, it all depends on the numbers.
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December 14 2009
I agree Pasa. The only occasion for me to not count my time in remodeling is when I consider it a "therapeutic activity" (I really enjoy knocking out walls to relieve stress). One of the reasons people have traditionally made money on "flipping" in the past was that they were basically paying themselves for the labor, or creating a construction job for themselves.

When I was a kid [and walked uphill, barefoot, both ways in the snow :) ], my dad used to keep his construction crew busy in down time by rehabbing houses and reselling them (I really don't like the term flip since to me it screams for the people on cable who bought houses, put them together with bond-o, painted them, and wanted 100k in profit). They were able to cover the resale costs because as industry professionals they knew what added the most bang for buck and only paid to do each project once.
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December 11 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
As for that "elbow grease", don't forget to factor in your time at whatever you current wage rate is.  For most people, it still doesn't pay off, and that isn't how most people prefer to spend their time.

Life is short.  Chose what you want to spend your time on and who you want to spend it with carefully.
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December 10 2009
And, who doesn't?

The future is uncertain. Nobody who tells you to rent will guarantee that you won't sell at a profit, and nobody who tells you to buy will guarantee you against loss.

And that's the way it always is. So, don't let us sway you, one way or another. Figure out, for yourself, if the risk of losing money is worth the reward of enjoying home ownership. 

 
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December 10 2009
Hi Mortimer;

I learned a long time ago,.. that the money is made when you buy,.. not when you sell.

If you purchase a home in todays market, looking for the one that fits you best,.. sparkles and shines and is the most expensive in the complex,.. and if the appraisal barely supports the value your chances of getting out in 3-4 years without a loss is less than if you purchased the worst looking townhome in the best complex and added that sparkle and shine yourself,.. providing your contract price reflects that fact.

Is the best time to buy now?? Absolutely,.. but avoid looking for that sparkling gem,.. instead look for the gem in the rough,.. the home that with some elbow grease and work could be that sparkling gem tomorrow.
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December 10 2009
Even if you don't have children, look into local education.Generally, prices are more stable in catchment neighborhoods for A rated schools. (greatschools.net)
Also, check what incentives the builder is offering because some have great interest rates and no closing costs. One of my buyers will be paying less per month (mortgage, property tax, insurance and HOA) than he is currently paying in rent.

 
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December 10 2009

In that time range, statistically you will be eating up any money you would make back in principal by your closing costs alone.  I didn't get to read the wealth of information here, but I would rent if I were in your shoes. 

Good luck- it's ok to just want to be able to call something you're own even if you walk away more or less break even. 

Rule of Thumb-anything less than 4 years, don't plan on realizing a gain.

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December 10 2009
Profile picture for pme916
Isklopot, you missed a couple of things in your buyers cost list.

1) HOA fees very often cover hazard insurance as a group policy.
2) I believe an FHA loan with 3.5% down would require Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)
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November 30 2009
Profile picture for klarek the realist
"Buying in this moments , will be must likely like you will get some equaty on your  house , so you can do it."

This statement and its grammar/spelling is why so many people don't regard agents as professional or educated.  Just comical.
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November 30 2009
Profile picture for mortimer1978
Pasadenan- that last one I don't quite understand. 
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November 30 2009

So ask yourself this. Is it worth the risk to be tied down to a mortgage with the real potential of loss simply to have shelter?

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November 30 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
That means that you can spend over $4000 a month in rent and still be ahead financially as compared with buying, and that is not even taking into account the depreciation on the property nor the additional foreclosures occurring within the next 3 years.
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November 29 2009
Profile picture for mortimer1978
The property is new construction, priced at $285,000. Two bedroom townhome on multiple levels with an attached 2 car garage and a rooftop terrace. The maximum time that it i  perceived that I would be in Dallas is for no more than 5 years (I know i stated 3-4 before, but with work and school, 5 years is looking more likely). The reason for an eventual relocation is job related also. With new construction the all utilities systems are new with warranties, so most repairs would be small.

The townhome is also in a stable, safe(r) and well liked area of Dallas.
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November 29 2009
Profile picture for Isklopot
Treat it as any other important financial transaction--gather some information and make a spreadsheet of the marginal costs and income, giving you the expected net.

RENTING Costs
Monthly Rent (include any additions for covered parking, garage, pets, etc you may add)
Utilities not included in rent
Renter's Insurance
Any one-time costs for renting (application fee, etc)
Other Costs--rental of storage unit for additional possessions, etc.
RENTING INCOME--none

BUYING COSTS
Transaction Fees buying (taxes, other closing costs)
Monthly mortgage cost (principal and interest)
Homeowner's Insurance
Property Taxes
Maintenance (yes, an estimate but it does cost to maintain a house, and get one all nice and shiny to sell;  make sure to include any yard service, quarterly pst control etc you may hire)
Transaction Fees selling (realtor commission, taxes, other closing costs)
Home Owner's Association Fees (as appropriate)
Opportunity Cost of down payment--what would you have earned on the 20% down payment for the 3 years?
Utilities
BUYING INCOME
Price you sell at minus the price you paid;  may be negative, meaning you increased your outflow
Value of mortgage tax deduction to you (if you itemize)

I ignored inflation and assumed a dollar in three/four years is worth a dollar today;  depending on your view of the future may want to do all the calculations in constant year dollars, assuming some inflation rate.  More importantly, I ignored risk and assumed you can get valid point estimates for all of the numbers rather than have to deal with a range for each estimate with an associated probability.  Most important when considering your buying and selling prices and costs, since a change here will ripple throughout the entire analysis.  Obviously, risk is much higher on the buy side than the rent side. 
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November 29 2009
I have read most of the post and some have given some great advise, the best advise I can give would be to do your homework.  Based on the question you did not give a price /comparative to the market.  Are you buying a distressed property, foreclosure property.  All these will have to be known before anyone can accurately see if you will make or lose money in 3 years.  I live and work in a pretty unstable market in the Michigan area, but I understand when I buy that in 3-4 years the market should rebound.  The Dallas area has not been hit as hard so if you buy significantly below market you could possibly break even.

A little sweat equity can go a long way in any market.      
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November 29 2009
Profile picture for undecidedone
It all depends. I bought the house in 2004, and in 2005 I could gain some money if I sold it then. Now, 5 years later, my house lost about 20% of its value. So, what timing you are talking about?
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November 29 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
As stated, before, you really have to have more of a long range outlook than just 4 years.

Sure, if you can show that your rent would cost more as in Tiffany's case while you attend a 4-year school or similar, buying may make sense.  But you don't even have the right time frame for the typical "rule of thumb" for a stable market, let alone a market substantially influenced by other economic factors.

But you didn't even indicate why you would have to sell out in 3 to 4 years, nor why you didn't anticipate having a long term employment in the area, nor why you want to spend so much money in property taxes, nor why you want to spend so much money for HVAC energy costs.

Of course Realtors ® will tell you to buy.  That is the only way that most of them would have any income.  We are fortunate that there are Real Estate agents like Tiffany and Roberto that don't have a need to distort the market conditions.
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November 29 2009
Profile picture for mortimer1978
At this time, we all know that much of the housing market is still being held up by tax incentives and I am in no way attempting to flip a house or make some sort of an amazing profit. I am looking at this as a rent vs. buy scenario. Home prices are lower in Dallas than in my home town (chicago) so buying seems like a good option but I keep getting very differing responses from individuals like yourselves and realtors. 
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November 29 2009
Tiffany,

Those numbers just demostrate the approach. Don't be serious about the accuracy. After all, each market is different. The closing cost is indeed missing in my math. Thanks for pointing it out.
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November 29 2009

Your math is flawed Gary.

1) You don't include any other closing costs in your percentage. In many places the closing costs can be much more than simply the commission. (For example, in Philly there is a 4% transfer tax - usually split between buyer and seller, but a motivated seller will often pay all 4%).

2) Where is the source for your inflation number?

3) The 3% amount is on the assessed value, which may have little to do with the market value of a property.

4) The commission is deducted from the end sale price, so it is a higher number than "add 6%". (say you purchase at 90k, you add 6% = $5,400, but the sales price is 100k, you actually need to budget $6,000).

5) You 5.5% appreciation per year does not equal 22.99%. You have to compound the % each year. I'm not quite sure where you got 5.5% actually....5.5 x 4 = 22% and 5.5% compounded = 23.88% (Odd since you compounded the 4%).

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November 29 2009
Here is the math...

- inflation 1% a year
- property tax 3% in Dallas

If your mortgage interest + HOA = rent, if you are on lease. Your property will simply cost you 4% a year.

After 4 years, it will be 16.99%, i have not included any maintenance cost.

With 6% commission, it means you will get your 100% buying power back if your property appreciated 22.99%. 

In other words, you will need approx. 5.5% appreciation a year for 4 years in a row then sell the property to re-gain your 100% buying power. 

Is it possible?  
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November 29 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
"Buying at this time, it will be most likely that you will get some equity on your  house , so you can do it." -

If the property was appraised for more, are you stating it wasn't sold for "market value", and that the seller was foolish for leaving all that money on the table, and not insisting they get "fair market value"?  Are you stating that their Realtor ® intentionally mislead them to sell for too little, just so that the Realtor ® wouldn't have to put so much time and effort into making the sale?

The price things sell at "is" the market value by definition.  It doesn't matter what the appraiser states; it only matters what the properties will actually sell for.  Therefore, there was no additional equity left on the table.

Of course all homes have equity when they are purchased!  It is called the "down payment".  It is not "free equity"; you put your money in for it.  And not only do you pay your down payment, but you also pay your loan origination fees, the inspection fees, the appraisal  and all the "closing costs".  So, if you put in the FHA minimum of 3.5%, and an additional 3% for the other costs, you have put in about twice what the equity is.

And then since the prices are presently propped up by the Federal Government by about $30k, you get to lose all that equity when the government pulls the prop out from the market and from under you.
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November 28 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
"Find someone that's knowledgeable, that you feel like you can trust" -

"Feel"?  What kind of measurement is that?
You've made it clear, the first question that needs to be asked is what high school the Realtor ® went to.  And then to pull their high school transcripts, since it is clear that most Realtors ® never learned how to do math.

If they didn't get at least an A in Algabra-2 and an A in Geometry, and possibly an A in PreCalculus or Calculus, it is clear they just don't have the math skills to do what they are claiming to do.  And what statistics courses did they take in College?

Doesn't matter if they have taken an oath regarding some "code of ethics".  If they don't have the math skills, it is no better than the person that put the defective O-ring on the Challenger rocket that blew up on launch with all those people in it, or all the people that said it was OK to launch it without it even being checked.
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November 28 2009
I'm not trying to sell anyone on anything.  "They know full well that past performance is no indication of potential return" - no kidding, the expression often quoted is that it's no indication of future returns.  That's the point expressed in my previous post.  The only thing that's known for sure is past performance, the rest is based on your assumptions and/or speculation (except for a few known/fixed costs).  I never said you should base anything on past performance and, in agreement with Roberto, doing so (especially in a short timeframe) would be foolish.  It's not that anyone has given bad advice here, but it looks like a lot of assumptions were made.  What if the person asking the question is willing to purchase a foreclosure and/or property priced way below current market values and that area doesn't go down in value in the next few years, or they decide to sell the property without using a realtor and are able to do so successfully, or the area they decide to buy in actually does go up in value over the next few years?  See how easy it is to speculate?

Again, if it's not clear, I'm not saying "mortimer1978" will be able to avoid a loss in the situation described in the original question.
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November 28 2009
Only if you score an amazing deal &/or are very handy. In general, a 3-4 year hozion after closing costs in most areas in a wide range of years would put you at a net loss. I don't know the Dallas ares, but would only recommend it if you can get a deal like I did on a property in Philadelphia...house was 40k (mortgage = 252/PI, 366/PITI), comparable rent was 1000-1200+/mo. I am planning to be in it for 4 years in grad school - which essentially gave me a paid in full house for the same price as renting. So unless you find a freak deal where it is nearly impossible to lose money you are setting yourself up for a substanital risk of loss.
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November 28 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
"Best anyone can realistically do is tell you the areas that have appreciated in value up to this point" -

There they are trying to sell "past performance" again.  They know full well that past performance is no indication of potential return.  In actuality, it is almost the opposite... if something recently "bubbled", it is more likely to fall, and fall harder.

So, if your buying and selling costs come to about 13% (excluding the interest and maintenance, and taxes, and HOA....), and you are going to liquidate in 4 years; how much does it have to appreciate per year to "break even"?  1.13 ^(1/4) = 1.031 ---> 3.1% annual.  How does that compare to the consumer price index?  About twice as high?

Why don't you just compare to bubbled gasoline?  It was at $5/gallon a year and a half ago.  The bubble collapsed and undershot, going down to under $2/gallon last December.  And it has now stabilized at about $3/gallon.  So in 4 years, it would have to sell for at least $3.25 to "break even".  Well it might, but the dollar would likely be worth that much less, so you are being paid back in deflated dollars.  And the housing market hasn't finished deflating unlike the gasoline, so it is like buying the gasoline at $3.75 now, and hoping it will sell it at $3.25 in 4 years.

Thus, it is a "loss", even if you could find something to buy where your interest, insurance, HOA, taxes and maintenance was less than your rent for the equivalent.

As long as the government is propping up the market prices with "tax giveaways"..., the market has further to fall, and it will.
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November 28 2009
Selling a home will cost about 7 to 10% of its price in commissions, charges, title insurances, escrow fees and the like. Not to mention considerable time and energy.

So, unless your home manages to go up by more than that, you will lose money.

Basically, buying with such a short timeframe in mind is very foolish, and any Realtor saying differently is clueless.
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November 28 2009
Best anyone can realistically do is tell you the areas that have appreciated in value up to this point and give you an opinion on the likelihood of an area doing well.  There's no way someone can honestly tell you that you will not take a loss in the scenario you've described.  I would recommend discussing/working with someone that's actually from this area and familiar with this area.  Not every agent is out to simply "take your money".  Find someone that's knowledgeable, that you feel like you can trust, and that can help you develop a strategy (good location to buy, what to do to maintain to get the most out of it, how/when to sell, etc.).
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November 28 2009
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    • Baths: 2.0
    • Lot: 5489
  2. 2654 Provencial Ln, Richardson, TX Home For Sale
    2654 Provencial Ln, Richardson, TX 75080

     For Sale: $439,900

    • Beds: 3
    • Sqft: 2957
    • Baths: 2.0
    • Lot: 3049
  3. 518 Golden Meadows Ln, Duncanville, TX Home For Sale
    518 Golden Meadows Ln, Duncanville, TX 75116

     For Sale: $89,500

    • Beds: 4
    • Sqft: 1239
    • Baths: 2.5
    • Lot: 7562