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You could actually "buy down" your rate even lower if you want to. This would pay off quite quickly for you since you do actually plan to pay off the mortgage. Many borrowers are not as long term thinking as you seem to be.
I guess the question is: What rate are you waiting for the market to hit? Because you can always pay down the principle early and reamortizing the difference would effectively be the same in the end as having a lower rate over the longer term. But if it's all about rate, then you should look at buying down the rate. I'm not sure how much lower they could go beyond what you could buy it down to.
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Ihave an ARM at 4.75.shoudl I refinance for a fixed 15 year or take a chance of waiting another year
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