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Answers (13)
The Phoenix market has turned around in a meaningful way over the past six months. Inventory is way down, asking prices are up approximately 10%, foreclosures in the pipeline have dropped in half over the past year. Even rental vacancies have dropped from an atrocious 14% to a merely awful 10%...I am having great difficulty finding any investment properties that match the five I bought earlier in the year.
Based on these factors, I would predict rising prices over the immediate to near term. I am going to actively look to buy several more investments on that belief.
Of course, this is no guarantee: Europe could lead us into another stinging couple of years of recession, interest rates could move off the floor damping demand, deficit cutting in the US could cause another round of recession. But risk versus reward for me encourages buying rentals today rather than waiting. You can research my track record on zillow, when in 06 and 07 I predicted this crash for references to my analysis.
Based on these factors, I would predict rising prices over the immediate to near term. I am going to actively look to buy several more investments on that belief.
Of course, this is no guarantee: Europe could lead us into another stinging couple of years of recession, interest rates could move off the floor damping demand, deficit cutting in the US could cause another round of recession. But risk versus reward for me encourages buying rentals today rather than waiting. You can research my track record on zillow, when in 06 and 07 I predicted this crash for references to my analysis.
- Caveat Emptor
- Contributions:500
prices will fall in line with historic norms eventually. they aren't there yet. some markets though, are there.
- Mike Vazquez, Realtor at ERA, "Mike Vazquez"
- Contributions:62
I think our area has bottomed already though nobody I talk to expects significant appreciation for several years...
Good Luck
Good Luck
- SteadyState
- Contributions:787
The graphs above are very scary - they resemble a typical bubble (see QQQ or Dow or housing correction in the 1930s) correction graph after the first false positive where prices fall off a cliff!
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21460
Homes sold per month:
(It will be a "good year"... about 10 homes sold per month).
(It will be a "good year"... about 10 homes sold per month).
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21460
Percent of ownership housing sold in 12 months:
3.2% presently
3.2% presently
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21460
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21460
The Real Estate Market started to turn around in 2005! Where have you been? The market correction continues to compensate for the unrealistic bubble.
Yes, we will continue to see steady market improvements, which means prices will continue to "get better", meaning lower prices for all, except in fruits, vegetables, meat, and clothing.
I do hear that there are some other bubbles brewing in other market sectors though. And the bubble correction for Gold and Silver has not even started to begin yet.
Yes, we will continue to see steady market improvements, which means prices will continue to "get better", meaning lower prices for all, except in fruits, vegetables, meat, and clothing.
I do hear that there are some other bubbles brewing in other market sectors though. And the bubble correction for Gold and Silver has not even started to begin yet.
- SteadyState
- Contributions:787
I can predict the future and I will say that the RE market cannot turn around in 2012. The market will most likely fall further when it becomes clear that federal subsidies are no longer affordable and that despite NAR lobbying:
1. It is not rational economic policy for the government to insure home mortgages
2. It is not rational economic policy to allow itax deduction for one type of interest payment for one industry (picking a winner) and not others
3. It is not rational economic policy to have short term/long term capital gains all most investments but exempt housing for the first $500K in gains
I have not even touched other "artificial life supports" such as low interest rates, lack of knowledge of stagnant wages and buying power, local/state debt , etc. No I do not see a recovery in 2012 in fact let's keep our fingers crossed we do not enter a free fall in home prices.
1. It is not rational economic policy for the government to insure home mortgages
2. It is not rational economic policy to allow itax deduction for one type of interest payment for one industry (picking a winner) and not others
3. It is not rational economic policy to have short term/long term capital gains all most investments but exempt housing for the first $500K in gains
I have not even touched other "artificial life supports" such as low interest rates, lack of knowledge of stagnant wages and buying power, local/state debt , etc. No I do not see a recovery in 2012 in fact let's keep our fingers crossed we do not enter a free fall in home prices.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25139
Nope. I think that things are still shaking out.
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4699
In your area maybe. Is your unemployment getting lower? Are people there feeling safe in their jobs? Is the DOM getting larger or smaller? Those numbers will help point to a recovery.
Nationwide no it will not be. The problem is bad mortgages that will be resetting. Those will go through 2012 at a minimum. Then it takes over 400 days on average from the first missed payment to get foreclosed on. The shadow inventory will show up and become very real. As housing inventories increase prices will be pushed lower. With the kind if inventory we will have it could easily be 2014 or later before the market recovers. If the government keeps trying to stop the market from correcting it could take much longer.
Nationwide no it will not be. The problem is bad mortgages that will be resetting. Those will go through 2012 at a minimum. Then it takes over 400 days on average from the first missed payment to get foreclosed on. The shadow inventory will show up and become very real. As housing inventories increase prices will be pushed lower. With the kind if inventory we will have it could easily be 2014 or later before the market recovers. If the government keeps trying to stop the market from correcting it could take much longer.
- Tiffany Bond, "TiffanyBond"
- Contributions:3010
@ Lori
Contact information in posts is considered spam on Zillow.
@ Jay
I don't think we'll see much of anything substantial on most fronts in an election year. Lots 'o talk. Perhaps some policy shifts to lower gas prices. Not too much else.
Contact information in posts is considered spam on Zillow.
@ Jay
I don't think we'll see much of anything substantial on most fronts in an election year. Lots 'o talk. Perhaps some policy shifts to lower gas prices. Not too much else.
- Lori Harper, "Lori Harper"
- Contributions:1
Jay, I am polishing my crystal ball so I can answer you. Seriously, I think there will be segments of the market that will see steady improvement in 2012. I think we are going to see a lot of first time buyers venture into their first home as confidence in the economy increases. As properties start to sell in the northern states we will see more people heading south to sunny, no snow, Myrtle Beach, SC. I can't predict the future so this is just my humble opinion.
[hotlinks removed by Zillow moderator]
Is 2012 going to be the year for the real estate market to turnaround?
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