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- vandyrobert
- Contributions:48
I am flagging your post due to spam...It is against Zillows "Good Neighbor policy. Also, if interest rates happen to rise one point, which direction do you think prices will go? Where do you think prices will go after the 8K tax credit disappears?
- Easyresidential
- Contributions:34
vandyrobert,After reading your comment, I reviewed the good neighbor policy to see if I had indeed violated the community standards. I respectfully request that you (and other readers) also review it - my posting did not violate any of the terms under the policy.I offered my opinion. I have been a real estate investor for 10 years and that is the advice I am giving to anyone sitting on the sidelines. Buy low - sell high is a proven principle that offers a path to wealth.
Your points about the interest rates and tax credit are worthy of consideration. In a rational market, those inputs would have a negative impact on prices. The real estate market has not been rational for years. Before the crash, people were paying too much. Now some folks are afraid to take advantage of great deals that they CAN afford. The pendulum has swung to the fearful side. It will soon corrrect towards rationality. I do not think that prices in the Atlanta market will drop much lower.
John
Your points about the interest rates and tax credit are worthy of consideration. In a rational market, those inputs would have a negative impact on prices. The real estate market has not been rational for years. Before the crash, people were paying too much. Now some folks are afraid to take advantage of great deals that they CAN afford. The pendulum has swung to the fearful side. It will soon corrrect towards rationality. I do not think that prices in the Atlanta market will drop much lower.
John
- vandyrobert
- Contributions:48
John,
Your new around here...You will soon realize that your post was more than just your opinion. It is your opinion and SELF-PROMOTION, which zillow considers spam. You cannot post your phone number or e-mail address in the thread. Your NAR talking points aren't going to get you very far on this forum.
Your new around here...You will soon realize that your post was more than just your opinion. It is your opinion and SELF-PROMOTION, which zillow considers spam. You cannot post your phone number or e-mail address in the thread. Your NAR talking points aren't going to get you very far on this forum.
- eotaxin2000
- Contributions:1
Now is the worst time to buy a house. Unemployment is skyrocketing, 80% of house prices in free fall, interest rates to reset in the near future. These are toxic liabilities. Housing bottom will be reached around 2012. As of now, you're looking at valuations 30% above long term trend. Do you want to pay 30% more than what a house is worth? Even with the 8K tax credit, it's not worth it.
You called my president Uncle? is he your Uncle? I've been reading this same pathetic drivel (NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY !!!) for a year and a half. Your opinion is self serving and quite frankly obviously wrong. The good news is this will not preclude you from your next step on the r.e.a. career path, Walmart greeter. Goodluck!!
I really don;t think it was very self-promotional: its his opinion and he makes good points.
Maybe we can do without the contact info at the bottom. The moderators will strike that though. If people want to contact you they can click through to your profile.
Maybe we can do without the contact info at the bottom. The moderators will strike that though. If people want to contact you they can click through to your profile.
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
The original post hascontact info......it is spam at its finest........you have been flagged.- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
GA has unelmployment over 10%.....that house will be half off next year........
- Tap012
- Contributions:278
People always exaggerate the unemployment rate. Even if it is at 10% vs 5%, that leaves about 90% employed and 90% that can potentially buy a house. Experts don't expect the national rate to go higher than around 10% and then jobs will come back.
If you are financially stable as many probably are now with layoffs leveling off, there is no reason to be scared of a 10% unemployment rate that probably won't affect you.
If you are financially stable as many probably are now with layoffs leveling off, there is no reason to be scared of a 10% unemployment rate that probably won't affect you.
I've always wondered why the doomers put such heavy emphasis on unemployment as though the unemployed suddenly do not need housing.
I suppose they are all to squat in the desert somewhere.
I suppose they are all to squat in the desert somewhere.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4395
In California, at the 1992-1996 period, unemployment rate is 12%, if the peoples, who bought the house at that time, they was make big money, even with today deteriorate market. that is the rule, buy low and sell high. No body make money when buy in the inflated market.
That house in Smyna he linked to would go for $275K here in Reno in a heartbeat.
Local, local, local. Nice nouse, trouble is I'd have to live in GA.
Local, local, local. Nice nouse, trouble is I'd have to live in GA.
- Myers Team Realty, "markmyers"
- Contributions:1639
The Atlanta Regional Commission projects that metro Atlanta's population will increase by two million new residents by the year 2030. These people will have to live some where, so property values in the Sunbelt states should increase over the long term.
- jal74
- Contributions:1077
John
Answer me this riddle. When is it not a great time to buy?
Go back and read through all the REA posts for the past two years. They all say the same thing. Its a great time to buy. However, none of those posters come back and apologize when, lo and behold prices have dropped 19% year over year and they continue to decrease and they have complete egg on their face.
Please take your promotion elsewhere. The purpose of this forum is about discussion of ideas and to answer questions. If you want the ra ra chearleader promotion forum - trulia this that >>>>>>> way
Regards
Answer me this riddle. When is it not a great time to buy?
Go back and read through all the REA posts for the past two years. They all say the same thing. Its a great time to buy. However, none of those posters come back and apologize when, lo and behold prices have dropped 19% year over year and they continue to decrease and they have complete egg on their face.
Please take your promotion elsewhere. The purpose of this forum is about discussion of ideas and to answer questions. If you want the ra ra chearleader promotion forum - trulia this that >>>>>>> way
Regards
''These people will have to live some where''
The new 'They are not making any more land'.
Gotta love these tards.
The new 'They are not making any more land'.
Gotta love these tards.
- jal74
- Contributions:1077
Myers team
How many vacant housing units are there right now in GA? Its entirely possible that there are enough vacant and underused housing units to last Georgia much of that 20 years before another house needs to be constructed. This of course would imply that house price appreciation would be negligible for much of the next 20 years, no?
Also - those population projections can be very wrong - just ask california and florida, who are now seeing net outflows when all the pundits for the last decade said that these states would see only population increases for the next 50 years
Regards
How many vacant housing units are there right now in GA? Its entirely possible that there are enough vacant and underused housing units to last Georgia much of that 20 years before another house needs to be constructed. This of course would imply that house price appreciation would be negligible for much of the next 20 years, no?
Also - those population projections can be very wrong - just ask california and florida, who are now seeing net outflows when all the pundits for the last decade said that these states would see only population increases for the next 50 years
Regards
- jal74
- Contributions:1077
A $150,000 loan at today's low rates would yield a principal and interest payment of roughly $780 (less than most people pay in rent).
John - are there no property taxes in Georgia? What about maintenance? What about HOA fees, I guess they don't have to pay those in Georgia.
Also - john, what happeneds if the price drops 10% over the next year and the person loses their job? Don't forget to tax on that additional 6% selling costs. Might that be putting someone at tremendous risk of financial disaster?
What benefit could there be over the next 12-24 months of buying a house versus renting that same house instead.
John - are there no property taxes in Georgia? What about maintenance? What about HOA fees, I guess they don't have to pay those in Georgia.
Also - john, what happeneds if the price drops 10% over the next year and the person loses their job? Don't forget to tax on that additional 6% selling costs. Might that be putting someone at tremendous risk of financial disaster?
What benefit could there be over the next 12-24 months of buying a house versus renting that same house instead.
- Myers Team Realty, "markmyers"
- Contributions:1639
I did not say now was the time to pay full retail, just that the long term demographics are good for the southeastern part of the United States. When was the last time you heard of someone retiring to move up north.
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
People always exaggerate the unemployment rate. Even if it is at 10% vs 5%, that leaves about 90% employed and 90% that can potentially buy a house. Experts don't expect the national rate to go higher than around 10% and then jobs will come back.
The "official" unemployment rate is a bad joke. The U-6 measure of unemployment, which is closer to the truth, was 15.8% in Apr '09.
And, of course, before the auto industry (due to GM/Chrysler bankruptcy) and gubment (due to crippling budget deficits) job losses are "officially" measured and recorded, there's this:
Unemployment Claims: Continued Claims at Record 6.79 Million
So, what effect does unemployment have on the residential RE market?
Prime fixed-rate mortgages given to the most creditworthy borrowers accounted for the biggest share of new foreclosures at 29 percent, and prime adjustable-rate mortgages were 24 percent, Brinkmann said. It shows the mortgage problem has shifted from a subprime issue to a job-loss problem, he said.
The "official" unemployment rate is a bad joke. The U-6 measure of unemployment, which is closer to the truth, was 15.8% in Apr '09.
And, of course, before the auto industry (due to GM/Chrysler bankruptcy) and gubment (due to crippling budget deficits) job losses are "officially" measured and recorded, there's this:
Unemployment Claims: Continued Claims at Record 6.79 Million
So, what effect does unemployment have on the residential RE market?
Prime fixed-rate mortgages given to the most creditworthy borrowers accounted for the biggest share of new foreclosures at 29 percent, and prime adjustable-rate mortgages were 24 percent, Brinkmann said. It shows the mortgage problem has shifted from a subprime issue to a job-loss problem, he said.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21460
If I was going to buy in that area, why wouldn't I just buy a house in Mississippi for $10k and pay cash?
Everytime we look at the Zillow trends for the areas suggested, we see one thing; values are still rapidly dropping, so that $8k incentive will "disappear" in less than 3 months.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, it is not a good time to buy in an area until:
1) Less than 7% of total Ownership housing units are on the market at any given point in time.
2) Less than 7% of the ownership housing units that are on the market are "foreclosures".
3) Average TOTAL days on market for the ownership housing unit sales is less than 180.
4) Z-index "values" have remained CONSTANT for 3 months straight (horizontal line, not downward slopping line).
5) Z-index 10 year trend line has dropped below the 7% annual inflation curve AND likely below the 4% annual inflation curve.
6) Cost to own with a 30 year fixed fully amortized mortgage plus maintance, insurance, association fees, and property taxes is less than or equal to renting the equivalent in the same area.
7) Unemployment is decreasing
8) No backlog of 90 day lates nor loan "resets" that will create 90 day lates.
Of course Chaz is also right that one needs to consider individual price ranges and not just lump the entire area into the same "trend".
But when you do this, in many cases the low price homes are dropping much faster than some of the median priced homes.
Remember, though the Z-index only tracks median value for the area, Zillow's quarterly report breaks each area into 3 price ranges with the same number of units in each range, and then provides a median trend for each of these price ranges.
Everytime we look at the Zillow trends for the areas suggested, we see one thing; values are still rapidly dropping, so that $8k incentive will "disappear" in less than 3 months.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, it is not a good time to buy in an area until:
1) Less than 7% of total Ownership housing units are on the market at any given point in time.
2) Less than 7% of the ownership housing units that are on the market are "foreclosures".
3) Average TOTAL days on market for the ownership housing unit sales is less than 180.
4) Z-index "values" have remained CONSTANT for 3 months straight (horizontal line, not downward slopping line).
5) Z-index 10 year trend line has dropped below the 7% annual inflation curve AND likely below the 4% annual inflation curve.
6) Cost to own with a 30 year fixed fully amortized mortgage plus maintance, insurance, association fees, and property taxes is less than or equal to renting the equivalent in the same area.
7) Unemployment is decreasing
8) No backlog of 90 day lates nor loan "resets" that will create 90 day lates.
Of course Chaz is also right that one needs to consider individual price ranges and not just lump the entire area into the same "trend".
But when you do this, in many cases the low price homes are dropping much faster than some of the median priced homes.
Remember, though the Z-index only tracks median value for the area, Zillow's quarterly report breaks each area into 3 price ranges with the same number of units in each range, and then provides a median trend for each of these price ranges.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21460
And really, who cares if employers are not firing people as quickly as they were before???? If they are still firing people and still not hiring, there still is an increase in people that don't have work.
We have been tending towards households of one in housing designed for 5 to 7. The trend is now moving the other way with more people sharing the same housing.
Where are they going to live? With parents, with children, with brothers or sisters, with cousins, in Single Room Occupancies, OR they will rent a room, or live in their car, or live under a freeway bridge, or in a tent, or they will move out of state. People have been doing these things for centuries. Where is your creativity? Of course they will not be buying a house if they don't have money to make the payments. Nor will they rent a house nor apartment that exceeds their income. That is just pure foolishness!
It is like saying the Gap will never close any stores since people always need something to wear! FOOLISH! They are going to go to the store without wearing anything??? They have "something" to wear, and they can get something used at a good price at a yard sale or thrift store.
Americans have never needed all the "stuff" the marketiers always claimed they needed.
We have been tending towards households of one in housing designed for 5 to 7. The trend is now moving the other way with more people sharing the same housing.
Where are they going to live? With parents, with children, with brothers or sisters, with cousins, in Single Room Occupancies, OR they will rent a room, or live in their car, or live under a freeway bridge, or in a tent, or they will move out of state. People have been doing these things for centuries. Where is your creativity? Of course they will not be buying a house if they don't have money to make the payments. Nor will they rent a house nor apartment that exceeds their income. That is just pure foolishness!
It is like saying the Gap will never close any stores since people always need something to wear! FOOLISH! They are going to go to the store without wearing anything??? They have "something" to wear, and they can get something used at a good price at a yard sale or thrift store.
Americans have never needed all the "stuff" the marketiers always claimed they needed.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21460
Regarding interest rates; I know several people that got 3% fixed interest mortgages about 25 years ago. And I also know of many lenders that are doing Refis or modifications at 2% fixed interest now.
And credit card companies were giving 0% interest rates for well over a year, for the past 3 years.
Though mortgage interest rates may eventually rise, the federal government has made it clear they will continue to drop them for the near future to try to liquidate foreclosures. I fully expect to see fixed rates below 4.5% before the end of the year, and maybe even as low as 4%.
So, lock in now and pay that "extra" $100 per month interest plus thousands of dollars extra in principal! (Ouch!) And just remember, since you will be underwater on your loan, you will get to bring extra money to the table in order to close if need to sell.
And credit card companies were giving 0% interest rates for well over a year, for the past 3 years.
Though mortgage interest rates may eventually rise, the federal government has made it clear they will continue to drop them for the near future to try to liquidate foreclosures. I fully expect to see fixed rates below 4.5% before the end of the year, and maybe even as low as 4%.
So, lock in now and pay that "extra" $100 per month interest plus thousands of dollars extra in principal! (Ouch!) And just remember, since you will be underwater on your loan, you will get to bring extra money to the table in order to close if need to sell.
- Myersteam_1
- Contributions:571
It is a good time to buy when your payments are less than you can collect in rent. You can have someone else make the payments for you. You should start out with a good positive cash flow to allow for any vacancies.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21460
"..buy when your payments are less than you can collect in rent." -
Myer Steam -
That is OBSURD! You already mentioned the vacancies which completely contridicts that statement! One dollar more per month is going to cover NOTHING, not even a one day vacancy, let alone a more typical 30 day vacancy or longer. And what about repairs? The tenant isn't going to pay for a roof repair or a water heater replacement, or a broken faucet, or replacement carpets! And what about normal upkeep, such as yard care? You really expect the tenant to do it for "free"? It won't happen; it comes out of your pocket!
And if the property declines in value 20%? Who is underwater, you or the tenant? So you will take all the risks and expense and let the tenant have the property for only the mortgage payment plus property tax and insurance? Either you've never owned income property, or you have never learned basic elementary school arithmatic.
So you will do that with a car too; buy it to rent it out, then rent it on a daily basis for only 1/30 of the dealer's required payment? No rental car business would ever survive using such foolish practices.
Myer Steam -
That is OBSURD! You already mentioned the vacancies which completely contridicts that statement! One dollar more per month is going to cover NOTHING, not even a one day vacancy, let alone a more typical 30 day vacancy or longer. And what about repairs? The tenant isn't going to pay for a roof repair or a water heater replacement, or a broken faucet, or replacement carpets! And what about normal upkeep, such as yard care? You really expect the tenant to do it for "free"? It won't happen; it comes out of your pocket!
And if the property declines in value 20%? Who is underwater, you or the tenant? So you will take all the risks and expense and let the tenant have the property for only the mortgage payment plus property tax and insurance? Either you've never owned income property, or you have never learned basic elementary school arithmatic.
So you will do that with a car too; buy it to rent it out, then rent it on a daily basis for only 1/30 of the dealer's required payment? No rental car business would ever survive using such foolish practices.
- CORONA NICK
- Contributions:2218
DONT BUY NOW....LOL RATES GO UP, PRICES MUST GO DOWN...LOL
- Michael Eiden, "Michael.Eiden"
- Contributions:9
It's hard to make such blanket statement... now is the time to buy. It certainly could be the time to buy somewhere. However, you must consider that real estate values to some degree have no bearing on what the rest of the country is doing. You have to consider what is going on in the neighborhood.
Here in Portland, OR things are great city-wide, however there are pockets of places that are just awful to buy. You can literally have one neighborhood selling like hot cake, then yet another that has 11 listings that are 6+ months. You need to find a local expert, plain and simple.
My 2 cents,
Michael
Here in Portland, OR things are great city-wide, however there are pockets of places that are just awful to buy. You can literally have one neighborhood selling like hot cake, then yet another that has 11 listings that are 6+ months. You need to find a local expert, plain and simple.
My 2 cents,
Michael
- real estate mike
- Contributions:2001
Having read every single reply to this post, my two cents is I'd rather be a buyer right now than a seller.
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
No doubt M. Russell.....but it would be wiser to be neither and happily sit on the sidelines and when there is blood in the streets it is time to buy a home.
- Randolph Leslie Smith, "RandolphLSmith"
- Contributions:156
Inconceivably profound, are the depths of man's stupidity,
when seeking to find prosperity, he forsakes his liquidity.
RLS
when seeking to find prosperity, he forsakes his liquidity.
RLS
That's pretty good, Sir Randolph.
Where'd you get that? Can I use it?
Where'd you get that? Can I use it?
Is Now the Time to Buy?
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- 0.0/5.0
- (no reviews)
Contributions:34Some of that money that Uncle Obama is printing will be going to first time home buyers - $8,000 each! But that is only through the end of 2009. So we will likely see an unusual surge of activity (perhaps even a modest sellers' market?) towards the end of the year as procrastinating buyers rush to claim their tax credit. Americans want to own their own homes. They are not waiting indefinitely to purchase their piece of America. As the economic picture improves, pent up demand for housing will swing the market pendulum towards higher prices. If you dream of owning your own home, NOW is the time to strike! Interest rates and home prices are astoundingly low. And you can put $8,000 in your pocket, courtesy of the American tax payer. Are you ready to take advantage of the best buyers' market in our lifetime? Please consider this 3 bed brick ranch with a private in-law suite -
$50k Under Value!, 3 Bed Brick Ranch with In-law Suite in Smyrna
Enjoy your new home!
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