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Is now a good time to buy?

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We have money to put down on a condo but everyone keeps saying to hold off for another year.  Is it really going to be that big of a difference in Huntington Beach?
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4 Yes

February 23 - Huntington Beach
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Bob Phillips, "BobPhillipsRE"

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You can throw your "future" projections ( and predictions.) of resets and foreclosures out the window. 

That is "old news", which will be rendered increasingly irrelevant over the next month or two, as lenders scramble to implement the President's new Home Affordability&Stability Program.

The biggest tidal wave in homeowner mortgage history will happen over the rest of 2009, as loan modifications becomes prevelant, thoughout the country. ( I've heard that FHA is gearing up to modify their bad loans down to 3% for up to 10 years.)

As someone well versed in both short sales and loan mods, I'm looking forward to the rest of this year. ( Don't tell this "news" to the "doom & gloom" pack, though - what would they have to hysterically whine about for the next couple of years? )

To answer the original question, this is THE best time to buy real estate in the past 4 to 6 years.
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5 Yes

February 25
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Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"

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Now before I go ahead and lock the thread, let me make a personal appeal.

There are so much fascinating topics to be debated about the housing market and its impact on the overall economy. This is really important stuff, and we have some of the best minds assembled in the entire country right here on this messageboard. We have millions of visitors, and a lot of data. It's the perfect setup for a fascinating discussion about critical issues.

Let's please try to keep our discussions focused on the topics at hand, rather than letting these threads become puerile forums for vendettas. We've all been guilty of this at different times, so I'm definintely not singling anyone out. I'm just trying to appeal to your sense of intellectual honesty when I ask that you please discuss housing issues and not personal issues.

Let's make these discussions live up to their potential.

On a personal note, my daughter's 4th birthday is today, and my house is full of about 20 relatives visiting from out of town. I'm going to be completely offline for the next 36 hours so please do me the personal favor of not creating some new firestorm on some other thread, at least not until Monday.

Have a great weekend everyone.
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2 Yes

April 04
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Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"

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Hello everyone,
I think this thread has run its course. The question of whether "now is a good time to buy" or not is no longer being discussed, and personal insults are now dominating the thread.
The whole discussion as to whether or not one individual is properly licensed is off-topic and personal in nature, so I have therefore deleted it.
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April 04
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Pasadenan

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Harrison -

I didn't say YOU shouldn't buy.  There is a $50 MILLION dollar house for sale in Pasadena that is just right for "investors" like you.  I've posted the reference multiple times.
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April 04
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Pasadenan

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By the way, Zillow's "professional standard" is much higher than several of the realtor's that I've seen posting.

I would testify in court on behalf of Zillow any day.

And there is more than one person claiming to be a Licenced Realtor that has posted a false business address that I would be willing to testify against to any Board of Realtors.

At this point in time, there is only one other website that is competing against Zillow with machine generated estimates, and their trend data is not nearly as helpful.  Zillow has made it clear they are trying to cater their site to all those with interest in Ownership Residental Real Estate for any reason, not just those that are licenced to buy or sell it or write mortgages.  If you only want to sell to Realtors, then you should be looking at Trulia instead.


So, with 125 thousand realtors listed on Zillow, why is it so important to consider the "opinion" of one that has clearly distorted information so highly?
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April 04
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Harrison Painter, "HarrisonPainter"

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In case you missed it, I posted the correct link in the other thread.

The one you could not seem to find.




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April 04
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Pasadenan

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Harrison -

I guess you missed that I already posted the link to the source you suggested?

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April 04
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Pasadenan

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Bob was the one that posted he wanted me to look the data up myself.


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April 03
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nvchaz

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Hi Pasa,

I think you've crossed into a territory that you really do not want to go.

Get a little rest and think about it?

We can be friends here you know.
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April 03
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Caleb Yamanaka, "CHUTTA"

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Pasa,
What are those pictures you posted?  Looks like a highway?
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April 03
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Pasadenan

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"Since when is posting the truth considered "scare" tactics?"

Since when is posting "fiction" considered "the truth"?

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April 03
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nvchaz

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Not cool, Pasa

I didn't think you would go this way, (and just when I was getting to like you).
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April 03
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Pasadenan

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Maybe the reason bob "tries" to be positive on his posts is because of where he works at the golf course?

(His actual mailing address is P.O. Box 80763 (same city and zip).

OR, maybe it is because of his Licenced NBA status since 1997?
http://www2.dre.ca.gov/static/licstatus.htm

meaning "no broker affiliation", which implies the licencee may not legally perform acts for which a real estate licence is required in California.

If he were as "proactive" as he would like us to believe, and as "experienced" as he claims, why hasn't he bothered to get that "broker's license" in all these last 32 years?
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April 03
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doobie57z

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LMFAO!! good one, agt bob
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April 03
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Bob Phillips, "BobPhillipsRE"

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No worries, Doobs.  We will ALL probably die before this thread does.

This thread will probably end up like the final scene in "Planet of the apes", where Charleton Heston sees the half buried Statue of Liberty, on the beach.

What a legacy for Zillow.
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April 03
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doobie57z

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sorry, didn't mean to kill the thread................agent bob got his best answer award here
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April 03
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easy there agt bob. midday news is on here, they are lurking outside Kohler corp. interviewing the newly jobless. Bottom of the tv screen says" LAST DAY".  freakin' vultures. i guess it is news. 357 union people, about 100 salaried. my soul aches for these people, and especially for their babies. i know how useless a man feels at times. i've been there, some don't survive. sounds dramatic, but its true. dove shelters get mobbed to capacity,kids wind up in the system. if you are not seeing these things in your local newscasts it might be a good time to give a little thanks to whichever pagan idol realtors pray to. peace
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April 03
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Some people make $100,000 a year, paid for the mortgage 50% of their income, still is affordable.
Some make $20,000 a year, paid for the mortgage 25% of their income, still is unaffordable.
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April 03
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What are the odds that if I already had my loan in the works and things progressing that I would have been able to capitalize on this low rate and time it abosolutely right.....very low, so posting useless info like missing the low rate comes across as overgeneralizing at best.   If I were to buy a house next year I would be fine paying 5% cause that is way less than the 7% on one of the homes I had and if it goes to 10% I can decided to stay out of the game until the next low wave hits, for me it isn't the only factor.....the loan could be for 1% that still doesn't mean I can afford to buy a decent house since they are all still grossly overpriced.   Low rate doesn't make the house any ore affordable....what part of that can't be understood?
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April 03
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Bob Phillips, "BobPhillipsRE"

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SoCalBubbleHead? 

Since when is posting the truth considered "scare" tactics?

People should be allowed to interpret it anyway they wish. 

Some, like you, obviously might consider ALL real estate related news as negative.

There is an increasing groundswell, however, who are seeing things a bit more realistically, than to continue to listen to the beating of the tired old drum of negativity.

Its time just may have passed, in many areas of our country.  Apparently, Chino Hills isn't one of them. I'm sorry.
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April 03
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Folks. Pay attention how agent bob is cut and pasting the same SCARE TACTICS of  'buy now before you miss the bus' link on most of these threads relating to buying now. What does that tell you? 
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April 03
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Bob Phillips, "BobPhillipsRE"

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Actually, a day or two ago might have been better.

By The Time You Read About Low Mortgage Rates, It Was Already Too Late To Get Them
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April 03
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Pasadenan

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So, the local paper was literally "red" instead of "read"?
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April 02
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"But how low it will go with all the layoffs?"
 seriously. the local milwaukee news was a bloodbath. 450 jobs at kohler co. alone. some of the men they interviewed were almost in tears. in a year there will be an oppurtunity for someone like nvchaz or harrison. karma is a mothertrucker.
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April 02
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Pasadenan

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Here is the same histogram with the x-axis (values) multiplied by 4% annual (1.43 times).  This puts the lower quartile at $181k.  With this shift, there are about 500 units that are a value of $120k or lower.



But how low it will go with all the layoffs? 
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April 02
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Zillow shows the median is still 214k.  (The Z-index is the median, and is graphed with respect to time).

The Census data is from 1999 (2000 Census); there has been 4% annual inflation since then, but the trend will drop below the 4% inflation line.

The Census ownership housing data does include condos.  There were 8335 owner occupied housing units in zip code 53118 in 2000.

I'm not sure what table H74 excludes; I'll have to check; but that indicated 7558 housing units, thus 777 units were excluded for table H74 that were included in table H84.

Remember, Zillow calculates Median based on estimated values of all ownership housing units in the area.  Trulia, I believe, bases the median ONLY on recent sales values, which changes as the selection of what is on the market changes.
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April 02
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thanks pasa, median was over 200k a 18 months ago. that was houses. does that chart include condos?  also trulia claimed avg price/sq. ft of $135 or so back then, $107 now.
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April 02
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Pasadenan

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Address for higher resolution of image:

http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i0/i9655/IS126rwb3kuheoz.jpg


(You will have to copy and paste it into the address bar of your browser and press enter as Zillow doesn't let us link to Zillow pages now without adding ".www" before the letters ".zillow")
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April 02
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OK, here is the 53188 Zip Code Ownership Housing value distribution (histogram) for 1999 from the 2000 Census (Table H84 from SF3):



(Table H74 was not that useful as it left out housing units, and Tables HCT41A through HCT41I was not that interesting as the population is primarily white, non-latino.)

It is not clear if the width of the distribution has changed any, or if the curve just shifted by 4% to the right since then.  We will know after the next Census in 2010 (data to be provided in 2011).

In any case, there are homes in the price range mentioned, but less than 1/4 of the homes have a value of 120k or less.

Of course as foreclosures increase and prices continue to drop, you will have more selection within that price range.

(NOW, if we can just get ZILLOW to provide the present histograms!  They have the data!!!)

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April 02
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trulia shows household income median=50k  family median just under 61k
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April 02

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