Is the 10yr T-bill yield a good predictor of mortgage interest rates?Mortgagewatch.com offers a T-bill yield calculation-chart on 5 minute increments.Link(or even on 1 minute increments).Overlaying the curve from yesterday, onto the ZMM 30 yr average hourly quotes, with a 27/16% offset for the T-bill yield:The "start" rise, and "peak" are all in the same magnitude, but the peak is 2 hours earlier. Market watch claims their data is delayed 20 minutes, so apparently ZMM trails the bond and securities market by about 2.5 hours.But look at the early morning hours! About 7.5 hours prior to rate sheets being issued, the T-bill yields are already starting to move!Can this be used for more effective decisions on locking or delaying locking, knowing how rates are going to be moving 2 hours to 8 hours before they actually move?What are the risks of using such method? (Yes, we know that there is no direct function between T-bill yields and mortgage rates, as MBS is a separate investment product and the Federal reserve has a separate buying policy for MBS as compared to T-bills; but the correlation on a daily to monthly time scale is still quite high).July 25 2013 - US00YesReport a ProblemProblemSelect oneOffensive contentIrrelevant contentSpam (pure self-promotion)OtherDetailsYour emailPlease enter a valid email address.Submit CancelContent flaggedWe will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.