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It's Over, Get Over It!

Profile picture for Randy_H
Contributions: 4390
I keep feeling like everyone is falling all over themselves with complicated, contorted explanations as to why this or that house isn't selling. It's really simple:

It's the price, stupid!

I keep hearing in the mainstream media, on blogs, from pandering politicians looking to buy some votes with handouts: "people can't sell their homes!". No, they *can* sell their homes. Lower the price. No one guaranteed you a freebie return. Prices go up; prices go down. Get over it.

Oh oh, but the Fed will lower rates! Oops, mortgage rates are tied to LIBOR, not the Fed rate, and guess what, the LIBOR has been skyrocketing, and diverging from from the Fed rate. That party's over. The world is moving on.

Oh oh, but the Government will bail us out! Oops, the government will probably fumble around too long to help you, but even if they do, they'll only help folks with conforming loans, not jubmos, dumbos or insanebos. And, the big 'but' is you'll have to prove you didn't _lie_ about your income on your current distressed loan, so that rules out about 50% of buyers in the past few years on either coast. Anyway, bailing out a few truly needy folks in Indiana or South Dakota won't help you maintain a fictional 250% gain in California or New York.

Oh oh, but we'll just wait it out! Prices will come back after "they" fix everything an people can get jubmos, dumbos, and insanebos again!

Oops, wrong. That party is over. Even if everything goes perfectly, no one is going to loan such disgusting amounts of money anymore. Period. No more buying a house that's over 15x your income. It's over. I'm sorry if you bought recently, but there had to be a greatest fool sometime.

But if you want to sell your house there's only one answer left: LOWER YOUR PRICE!
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September 05 2007 - US

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Profile picture for Alan May
Real Estate Agent
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... as rudely as you made your point, it's still a valid point..

... this is real estate 101. No matter what the objection (poor location, cat odor, old roof, bad furnace, neighbor has skeletal car remains on his front yard), it can be overcome if the price is right.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for randy321
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Wow - You put it so plain and simple. Maybe post this same thing on the sellers board too - It would serve better there. I for one can afford my first home at these outrageous prices - But, why would I? I had a real estate agent ask me why I am renting - I said, because I pay $1200/mo. here in los angeles. So, I asked her to look up on Zillow one of her homes for sale - She did. The 30-day price drop was about $2,000 - I said I would have thrown away 2,000 by buying, but by renting I threw away 1200 with little risk for up keep, insurance, taxes, etc... She said that's a rare case, so I asked her to do it again - 30-day price drop for the other property was $30,000 - She got my point. I wish I could go on TV and explain, but patience is what a buyer needs now.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for ColoradoLender
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Actually mortgage rates are not tied directly to the libor index....sorry but nice try
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Randy_H
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We had to move about 6 months after having our first. It was very hard deciding not to buy again but rent & wait. Very hard. But it's not all that terrible once you get the big picture. Think how much good you're doing for your little one's futures. Someday they'll thank mom & dad for being wise enough to not blow their chances at college on Tulip Futures.

There's an up side if you're moving out of a house to a rental: you get a real excuse to throw away about half of your useless crap. It's liberating, really. Just try it. You don't need half that stuff.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Randy_H
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True, mortgage rates are not *tied* to LIBOR, but they are *correlated* to LIBOR much more strongly than the Fed official rate. Mortgage rates are set by *the market*, which in turn is strongly trade bounded by LIBOR.

Should we have a full on bond market discussion now? Maybe we can calculate durations for fun and games?
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for !bank_owned!
well said, Randy!!!!

please post this on the Sellers forum as well.
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September 05 2007
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Sure if you'd like to have one i guess, was just pointing out a mistake within your negative rhetoric.

And actually although the libor has been on the rise, mortgage rates have fallen over the last two weeks. Today right around 6.25% down from 6.6% two weeks ago....Obviously that wont solve the problem but doesnt hurt any either.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for ColoradoLender
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That said you do make valid points about how spoiled the sellers have gotten in todays market, theyre upset because they cant sell their homes after two years of living there for a 100% profit anymore....waa
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Randy_H
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@nic07, sorry for my negativity. Just way too much whining in the media for me to take this past week.

@Real Estate Agents:

I'm very encouraged to see there are good agents out there who are advising *sellers* to wake up and taste reality. I see a lot of them here in Zillow's discussions.

What I _don't_ get, really, are the agents who insist on focusing on the buyer. The simple fact is that buyers aren't really all that sticky. Their reluctance to buy is mostly set on their own ability to afford. They pretty much always pay the maximum they can afford, which is why we have this stupid bubble in the first place. They believed they could afford to buy way too much with suicide loans.

But sellers are sticky on the way down. Always. A billion reasons why, which lots of very smart academics have and continue to study. But, as agents, you only make money on volume, not on price. Price is a minor variable in your earning equation. Better to sell 5 houses at 20% price reductions than 1 at full price, right?

So why aren't more agents out there working their magic on sellers, instead of continuing to try to scare buyers into committing financial suicide?
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for ColoradoLender
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GREED
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for x0x0
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nic07, a lot of them really believe their own story line. Many are 'taking a bath' themselves.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Alan May
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Some of us are talking to our seller clients, explaining that the market has dipped (and yes, here in the midwest, thusfar, it's only a dip) and they have to be realistic in their pricing... the days of gargantuan profits from short-term ownership are over.

Each seller reacts differently... most of them have only seen quantum profits, in their lifetimes and can't understand "loss" after a few years or more... they've been conditioned by the market to see homeownership as a "forced savings account"... and are surprised when they're faced with losing money after owning a condo for only 2 years.

Some are realistic, and price slightly below the market.

Some are downright suicidal and resistant to change.

Today, realtors are in large part psychologist, bartender & therapist.

and GREED is a very simplistic, and unfair characterization.
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September 05 2007
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ya it was a one word reply, was meant to be simplistic
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Randy_H
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The Midwest isn't the problem. I grew up in the Midwest, incidentally. Your part of the country has very fundamental factors affecting home prices. Namely jobs. The rust and farm belts are in a long revaluation cycle. My father in law now has 4 farms (being the last of the kin alive) that no one wants. He won't sell them because he thinks they're worth 2x what the market will bear.

Agents out here in Cali are singing a different tune. They're still out there ridiculing, cajoling, and trying to terrify buyers into buying now at any cost. Get in now! they shout. One is right below this thread, for crissakes.

All we're saying is enough is enough, already.
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September 05 2007
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bethrahrig

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Of the regular posters on the sellers side, I'm not sure there are any who are short term owners. I know in my case, I built what was supposed to be my forever home. It turned out not to be forever : ) It's priced below market, but still at the higher side for that area. It could not be built for the proce I have it listed at. It's been on the market for 18 months, but we expected it to take a long time. We purchased a second home over a year ago.

I think I'll ask that question on the sellers side. How long they have been in the home they are trying to sell.

Randy,
I didn't notice if you said what area you're located in. I haven't noticed that there is heavy coverage of the housing issues in our media, other than the obvious national stuff.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Alan May
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<< ya it was a one word reply, was meant to be simplistic>>

then I guess you were successful! :-)
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Webster3
But please tell me WHY people are still paying astronomical prices in Caifornia. $900,000 for a 2200 square foot home with a postage stamp of a backyard. There seems to be a lot of land. i.e. Morgan Hill, CA. What's the draw?????
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Pherris
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"What I _don't_ get, really, are the agents who insist on focusing on the buyer. The simple fact is that buyers aren't really all that sticky. Their reluctance to buy is mostly set on their own ability to afford."

Well said, Randy_H!
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Fluno
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Am I crazy for buying now? Im a cash buyer so I figure I have wiggle room but dunno. The market here is slowly dropping a bit, but many sellers just seem to overprice IMHO. I want out of renting, my rent month to month is 200 more than normal and if I went on a lease, I'd be paying $40 more than I had the first 7 months of the year.

I can probably get into a new home here, at 30k-40k off list. Ok yard (restrictions due to protected areas surrounding and in the lot) and probably at $116/ft for 2800sqft house. Bit better part of town for commuting.

Another Im interested in, is 2050sqft, 17 years old, bit bigger lot (both are about .25) with more mature and a usable decent yard/landscaping but its list price is just about the same as the new one. Sale history says the current owner wants a bit over $80k more than what they paid in 2004.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Randy_H
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I'm in the San Francisco Bay area; north bay, Marin County. Prices here are simply disgusting.

For example, it's not uncommon to see people asking $2.2mm for a home they paid $1.4mm for in 2004. I used to think these folks were just all incredibly wealthy. Then I figured out how to pull title data and realized that most of them had 1/3, 1/4 or less equity in their houses than I had on my last home, which was less expensive.

I can think of nothing other to say than, WTF? We're talking about folks who bought a $1.4mm home with about $100K down, $1.3mm in 2, sometimes 3 adjustable loans, who now think they deserve $800K _profit_ for no other reason than being foolish enough to take on crippling debt.

And they whine. Every time we approach a selling agent about an offer the answer is the seller will be offended. WTF do you mean "offended". Your asking price is offensive. It's not even that they _don't want to lose money_. It's that they _don't want to lose anything off of their imaginary gains_.

And we wonder why this is a crisis.
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September 05 2007
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bethrahrig

Bealeton, VA

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OK, That I understand.

Now my next question ( and I'm really not trying to aggravate you!)

Why do you stay? Family? Work? Location?

We're fortunate in that I work from home, and hubby could get a job in just about any metro area. Plus we've moved several times in the past and have never lived near family, so that wasn't an issue for us.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Marci Reinheimer
Marin County is one of those places that people will pay a premium to live in. You may not want to pay the prices, but someone will.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Randy_H
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@bethrahrig

My wife is a corporate executive for a large company here, and I work in San Francisco. Living in Marin is a practical necessity due to the commutes 'round here.

@Marci Reinheimer [agent]

People won't pay for that which they cannot afford. I used to believe you. I almost bought into it when we moved here from San Mateo county in 2005. We could well afford these prices (which aren't really that different from Palo Alto or Menlo Park prices, though Marinites like to think they're special).

But then I learned how to get title data. Wow! Half of these people cannot afford their McMansions. They're banking on it "always going up". Just scan through Strawberry. There's house after house where the owners have $1.6, $1.8, $2.2mm in loans, almost nothing in the house, everything an ARM.

No, Maric, they won't continue to "pay the prices". Not if no one gives them a loan for a house that's 15x their income. Try looking at the Marin median salary data and explaining to me exactly how all this primeness came about.
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September 05 2007
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Jay20002000

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Amen Randy H
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for CORONA NICK
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Yes the RE market was way out of control... no one here can deny that.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Marci Reinheimer
Well good luck trying to get them to accept an offer for 2004 prices. It's all about keeping up with the Joneses. Just like Lamorina, Danville, and Alamo in CoCo County. It's all about your zip code. I do know where you are coming from. I live in a very undesirable city (to other people), yet I can afford my house payments.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Randy_H
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>>Well good luck trying to get them to accept an offer for 2004 prices. <<

They won't. I blogged extensively about price stickiness. And, despite making no friends among the so called "bubble bloggers", I held that downward prices in prime areas would be painfully slow, uneven, and unpredictable. No quick fix.

But, many of these people here in prime Marin are on the edge. The number of NODs has skyrocketed. Seems not everyone is so rich as we were led to believe. They can try to keep up with the Joneses all they want, right up until the time DeutscheBank takes over their home. That just means I'll have to negotiate with a rational banker instead of an irrational wannabe socialite.
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September 05 2007
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"The survey also found that nearly half of borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages were not able to refinance their loans."

--After seeing this, the whole super sticky thing kinda went out the window to me.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Space_Truss
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I talked to a seller today (actually tried to negotiate a little bit). They paid 520K two years ago, and today in the area all of the similar houses are listed for 520K or below. Theirs is not the best one, so there is no chance for them to sell the house for 520K.

But, she is saying that it was a great deal for 520K today, because it was 520K even two years ago.

I said nothing else other than "good luck". I am wondering one thing. Don't some people look around and check the listing prices of similar houses ?

I am really so sorry for people who are trying to sell for less than what they paid, and also paid a lot of interest and selling costs in two three years.
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September 05 2007
Profile picture for Randy_H
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@aldreth

The stickiness will be coming unstuck, even in prime areas, over the next 12 months.

I was arguing stickiness 2 years ago when hardcore "bubble bloggers" were predicting an instacrash. I said that, even with the writing on the wall (which it clearly was 2 years ago), sellers would be stubborn unto the bitter end.

Bittersweet, some might say.
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September 05 2007

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