Market UP or Down in 2012

Tell us your area and what do you think up Or down and why.
  • November 17 2011 - Cornelius
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Answers (22)

Profile picture for Sharon Lewis
Just looking at a 'full housing report' issued by BA/Merrill Lynch, they are forecasting national home prices to fall another 8% from 2Q11 through 1Q13, ( a cumulative 38% decline) in the Case-Shiller index from the peak in 1Q0. They are forecasting approximately another 8 million homes will be liquidated by the end of 2015. The foreclosure process  will really pick  up next year, with REOs  homes peaking in 2012 and liquidations peaking in 2013.  They run their model for the 20 top metro areas.
This is a broad sweep, real estate is local, prices can differ from town to town and zip code to zip code. We are seeing bidding wars in some areas. I just listed a home and went under contract in 10 days. Real estate is local.
  • November 18 2011
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Profile picture for the_country_hick
Prices going further down.

Even the federal reserve knows house prices are to high. See below.
The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market - Economic Letter, December 2010 - FRB Dallas

Bad mortgages will recast and reset. This means more foreclosures are baked in. Then add in 400+ days after the first missed payment and you have more time to wait.
Healdsburg Housing Bubble: Reset Chart from Credit Suisse has a Major Error

This just shows how house prices are not cheap as many say.
Cheapest Homes in 40 Years? Not Even Close… | The Big Picture

Not to long ago there was an article showing that house prices were down to 2004 levels (not much at all) but affordability was down to 1998 levels. How could this contradiction exist? Only because ultra low interest rates are masking the overpricing of houses which still have a long way to fall to meet incomes.
  • November 18 2011
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up or down huh?  lets hope it just levels off and stays flat for a while. :)
  • November 19 2011
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Profile picture for Sharon Lewis
I love good articles, but as a former journalist and news anchor, showing outdated articles is not the way to prove a point. Please update your information. 
  • November 23 2011
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The Chief Econoist of the California Association of Realtors believes we will see very moderate growth in 2012. However, the market in each area is different, so what holds true for one city may not be true for the next. In California, we will probably see growth come sooner in the coastal areas, whereas the inland areas may take a little longer to rebound.
  • November 23 2011
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Profile picture for SteadyState
What does moderate growth mean in this case? More buyers but prices drop? More buyers but prices stable? More buyers but prices gain? Is "growth" measured by the total money flow (i.e., sum over the product of each home multiplied by it's price)?
Please link to the source so we can independently read and ascertain.
  • November 24 2011
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Profile picture for sunnyview
Assuming current interest rates, I'm voting for flat with interest rates in most parts of the country. Slightly up in the hardest hit markets at current rates where PITI and rent compare favorably and down in markets that were late to peak during the bubble.
  • November 24 2011
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Profile picture for Dunes ..
The First Shoe has fallen and the Second is coming to your town soon.

The Economy of the Country is in Serious trouble with little being done about it or to correct it. Fed.,State, County, Local Budgets with cuts. shortfalls, even some Bankruptcy's  & all will be resulting in another large wave of Layoffs, small Businesses suffering/closing, less & less to Schools, hospitals, Services..

Uncertain times and uncertainty DOES NOT lead to or suggest Flat or Recovering Housing Markets..when people are pissed and confused and scared they do not buy into "Good time to Buy" PERIOD and when it's a FACT the National Economy as a whole is in trouble they are RIGHT to not buy into it.

Flat? You better hope so cause that would be a Victory..
  • November 24 2011
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Up. Because its better than Down.
  • November 24 2011
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Profile picture for Dunes ..
In a Business Transaction dealing with Thousands of Dollars in Fee's and Hundreds of Thousands of Dollars in Cost.  Something that also involves issues that can impact Families/Relationships/Retirement/Credit & the list goes on.

Being Realistic (Reality) Trumps Wishful Thinking or Sales Pitches
  • November 25 2011
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Profile picture for SoCal Engr
(Vince stole my thunder...)

UP!!! 'Cause "down" BLOWS CHUNKS!!!!!

[Editorial note: "ALL CAPS" and "exclamation marks" add 25%-50% more credibility to claims and/or assertions made in online posts.]
  • November 25 2011
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Profile picture for NinaHarris
I would like to think up but unfortunately when you factor in the state of the economy and the true number of people that are unemployed as well as those who have gained employment yet are working for a much lower salary, my gut tells me that prices will be down in 2012.  This country needs jobs that are going to pay a lot more than $8.00 to $10.00 per hour.
  • November 25 2011
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Profile picture for SoCal Engr
In addition to all the other factors, what about the impact of news like this? Can't be "good" if it's true.
  • November 25 2011
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Prices seem to be stable, for the most part, in my area of lower Westchester County, NY. Days on market are longer.
  • November 25 2011
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I really hope the market stays level and inches back up.  I know its going to take years for the market to rise up again.  But as long as we don't go down, I think the market will make it....

  • November 28 2011
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Profile picture for blue screen exile
Considering the large numbers of distressed properties that will need to be liquidated in the coming year, the number of sales for good agents should be up, especially considering all the Realtors that are leaving the business due to stress or lack of consistent income.

And with increased volume of selected agents, they should also have increased income, even if prices drop and they have to accept lower commission to maintain the client.

If one cannot adapt to market changes in an industry, one should seek out a different industry to work in.
  • November 28 2011
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My crystal ball is i the shop.
  • November 29 2011
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Profile picture for sunnyview
You might be able to get a new crystal ball on a held over Cyber Monday sale. Sometimes buying a new one is cheaper than paying to fix the old one.
  • November 29 2011
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Profile picture for blue screen exile
I have plenty of extras; but so far, no Realtor has taken me up on the offer.
  • November 29 2011
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Profile picture for SteadyState
The professor in a recent interview. It appears that we are going to over correct.
  • November 30 2011
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Profile picture for sryan1980
Never work with a realtor that makes predictions on the future of the housing market.
  • December 07 2011
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Profile picture for sunnyview
If you never work with an agent that make predictions about the market, then you may have a hard time finding a realtor at all. Think about it.
  • December 07 2011
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