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My Forecast For the Next 12-to-18 Months: A Gradual Easing of the Housing Crisis

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nvchaz
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"Look around and you'll see evidence pointing to a change in the residential real estate environment. Specifically, home prices have fallen so far, so fast … and sellers have gotten so desperate … that sales volumes are beginning to pick up in select markets.Aggressively priced foreclosures, short sales, and regular homes are now finding buyers, both first-timers and investors. The outsized price declines have helped restore some semblance of normalcy to several ratios (price-to-rent, affordability, price-to-income, etc.).This is a huge shift from the situation a few years ago, when all of these indicators were ridiculously out of whack!"

~ Mike Larson
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/an-important-housing-market-update-33609

May 08 - US

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nvchaz
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"Meanwhile, if you're fed up with renting and waiting anxiously to buy a home, shop around. You may find some compelling values that are just too good to pass up. I'm talking about houses or condos you can buy for 50 percent or 60 percent off peak levels."

May 08

westridge88
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lol rob...well said

May 08

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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well, in Phoenix, the crisis had to ease!

We were on pace up to two months ago, to put all homes to $0 before the year was over!!! I'd say predicting it to ease soon was kind of obvious! When the median is $120K and dropping at $10K a month!

May 08

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socalbutt:

I want to publicly apologize to all that I have offended, Both to you and Zillow (they just emailed me a very serious warning to stay on subject)

I am a semi sucessful Professional who does not take my self seriously. I realize that too many people find few things to smile about these days. I like to think of myself a just that tiny ray of sunshine in a world of real estate gone mad.

I'm a sort of greeting card that has no meaning, but you smile anyway!

May 08

nvchaz
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Sexy babe! I like au naturale!

How 'bout a little slap and tickle to get you braced for showing them mansions?

May 08

SoCal BubbleBrain
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You both SUCK. Don't quit your low paying day jobs. We need good sales people.

May 08

akoi
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could you find a way for me to adapt with my new outfit??

May 08

nvchaz
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Oh man! you ruined my joke!

You were suppose to say: "Depends on what?"

And I was gonna say: "Depends, on my granma".

Get it? Ha, ha. Pretty good dont'cha think? I been working on my stand-up routine.

May 08

akoi
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are you talking about the adult accident prevention diaper??

May 08

nvchaz
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Depends.

May 08

akoi
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I'm still confused...Is it a good time to buy right now or not???

May 08

nvchaz
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Here in Reno: currently 5.8 months inventory in homes under $250K.

How many foreclosures? Who really knows? And this is the area most subject to government intervention. Will there be an effective foreclosure prevention initiative? Will REOs be consolidated into blocks and sold to consortiums/syndicates? Are short sales really nascent REOs? Will suspension of mark-to-market mean banks holding back until sonditions are more favorable?

Unemployment is very local -- the input states should recover faster than the output states.

May 08

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The article may have some merit...lets hope it does. People that are waiting for housing to drop another 40% from current levels have no clue. I beleive that we may get another 20% reduction in some areas but is about the extent of it...over the next 18 months pick up a few good deals and let the renters pay for them. JMO

It depends what market you are in. In mine to say it will only drop 20% more shows you have no clue. The last few months here have shown 27-35% YOY drops here and compared to last year we have:

-More inventory (slightly up, still at over 20 months)
-More foreclosures (2.5x last year. looking like we will easily hit 1 in 5 by 2012)
-Much much higher percent as distressed sales -(75% short or REO)
-50% of sales are REO although they only make up 7% of inventory, leaving a very small piece of the pie for traditional sellers.
-More houses getting their Notices of Default than are selling (by more than double)
-Much higher unemployment (17% vs 6.6% last year)
-Many many more people underwater than last year
-Population decreasing, and we already have 700+ empty homes (30% of inventory). More supply, less demand.
- Last month's median gets us JUST back to what was considered normal pricing based on median incomes back when we had 5% unemployment, and didn't have 20 months inventory.

The only bright thing we have is that April sales were up - 105 vs 93. The downside is that sales that were not short or REO were about 1/3.

So if we were down 27%-35% YOY and we are worse off in just about every way, I'm not sure I can see that prices would only be down another 20%.

Westridge88, what is your thoughts on this? Would you see prices here in Bend only dropping another 20%?

May 08

nvchaz
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Yes, I think the bottom is REALLY gonna fall out in 2010.

But by then it will be cash only and the syndicates will be grabbing everything - so the little guy like me will be watching the window of opportunity slam shut. That's why I'm buying now.

I am a long term holder and I would expect to see minor equity gains starting in 2015.

May 08

westridge88
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The article may have some merit...lets hope it does. People that are waiting for housing to drop another 40% from current levels have no clue. I beleive that we may get another 20% reduction in some areas but is about the extent of it...over the next 18 months pick up a few good deals and let the renters pay for them. JMO

May 08

Spleng
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Oh Really nvchoad?

You're giving up on the "This Is Your Last Chance Buy Now Quick Before OctoberGeddon!"

Dude you're a walking talking lie machine.

May 08

NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"
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2012...

May 08

nvchaz
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So true. But it is healthy, I think, to speculate and try to find answers. Perhaps one of those answers will be correct. I am not a nihilist.

May 08

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But, some ones can make the guess.

May 08

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NV, Didnt you say, No one can predict the future ?

May 08

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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I guess that is one way to get a "best answer award"

haha hilarious!

May 08

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