NAR Pending Home Sales Are Up

http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid42529863001?bctid=42977231001

Please everyone View this link and I would like if you guys gave your opinons. Everyone Has a different perspective of the market the tax credit etc. What are your thoughts.
  • October 05 2009 - US
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Answers (15)

Profile picture for sunnyview
There is also an article on that same subject here. I guess I personally feel that the market is just experiencing a temporary boost from the buyer's credit. The numbers I have seen seem to suggest that mainly the lower priced segments of the market are moving while the mid and upper levels remain stagnant because of the uncertain economy. Time will tell, but I would expect fewer sales once the credit expires. 
  • October 05 2009
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However I understand your point I tend to disagree. Since the Credit Has surged some of the market. Falling prices back into market has also stimulated sales. there are many other opportunities to take advantage of besides the tax credit check with your local county sites for information. Keep in mind as well this pending home sales do not include lease options, contracts for deed numbers I don't think
  • October 05 2009
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Profile picture for sunnyview
I think that the market needs to return to healthy supportable levels based on what people can afford based on local incomes. The 2-3X income rule worked well for years in creating a stable and growing housing market. I would like to see a return to stable fundamentals. Many homebuyers in the market right now would have trouble buying if interest rates were much higher than 5%. If rates rise, buyers will be faced with higher mortgage payments and higher living costs simultaneously. I guess I feel that the market is still out of balance. I think prices will keep dropping or remain flat until employment is stronger. Truthfully, no one really knows what will happen, but I guess that's why the economists get paid big bucks for their predictions.
  • October 05 2009
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I agree I don't think any of us really know or can predict what is going to happen. I also agree that interest rates will rise at some point in the next year 18 months. That is why we need as agents to stay educated on any new financing, grants buy downs etc. to keep our payments where our buyers would like them to be there are ways to do so. The market is out of balance and the shift of power keeps swinging your correct but opportunites are out there and good ones. Just stay smart and buy when your ready.
  • October 05 2009
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I agreed with Amanda and SunnyView, however more pending home sell or $8k tax credit is not a today hot topic, the people talk about them since March 2009 when the sell start to go up, I think today the hot topic is "Buy now or prices out forever", because of the price keep rising on nation wide.

  • October 05 2009
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Profile picture for chuckdog24
Another title for that video link:
Yun begs for a much broader tax payer bail out of the RE market.
It's a tight line that he walks
"Things are much better!"
"The RE industry needs a bigger bail out!"
He does a great job of selling both messages without looking too self promotional in the process.



  • October 05 2009
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Profile picture for klarek the realist
The credit was a huge push for buyers out there.  As I may or may not have stated, I saw prices in my neighborhood jump from 20 to 40k higher during the past six months.  I feel so sorry for these people salivating over their 8k that don't know they're paying rip-off prices because of the demand surge.  It's not like their agent would clue them into that possibility....
  • October 05 2009
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Profile picture for chuckdog24
klarek- I saw the demand surge in my native CT first hand just this past weekend. We looked at (4) houses in the $315k price range & were totally disappointed with what that asking price buys in the area. We saw better values when we shopped in the spring of 07 than those (4). Very disappointing for a local market that many claim has historically low pricing.
The Zestimate of several local homes saved as "favorites" had the $20k ~$40k bump as of the past few months.
Will it last with unemployment nearing 10% nationally? Yes apparently if we double or triple down on the bail out funding.

Thanks Lawrence!! Glad we tax payers could be of some use to you!    
  • October 05 2009
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Thank you for all your opinons I think many people will get some use from all your comments
  • October 05 2009
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Profile picture for klarek the realist
Chuck, it's disheartening to see this market respond in such obvious fashion to the multi-billion dollar manipulation going on.  Pretty hard to stomach the taxpayer costs, let alone that the end result for the market will be nothing more than higher numbers of folks underwater.  Again, why pay 40k more for an 8k bribe?   First time buyers are generally very naive.  I know I was when I first bought.
  • October 05 2009
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chuck dog I agree. I think a bigger bail out would be a stall for the market to actually stablize and prices to fall where needed. I think the 8,000 tax credit was with good intentions but they are walking a fine line between to much of a good thing. I am glad to hear that the market is up from last year however and my market is seeing some increase in sales for the past 4 to 5 months and most of my buyers recently have not used the tax credit. So I am remaining optimistic to the market in my area since I have been seeing a consistant increase in my county and offices.
  • October 05 2009
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Profile picture for lamaSr
The $8k credit seems to have passed though the buyers to seller to the banks holding the mortgages, all in the form of higher prices at the low end.  That was probably the intention of the incentive.  It's basic economics.  Place an incentive on any asset purchase and watch the price rise.  Maybe they should have made the incentive for a new house or improvements?  At least that might help the employment situation.
  • October 05 2009
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Profile picture for Mr Caveat
I also agree that interest rates will rise at some point in the next year 18 months

who said that? sunnyveiw certainly didn't say that. paulson thinks that the deflation in this country is so strong that it will continue for 18 months before the fed even needs to re-evaluate rates.

starting in january we'll probably see a flight back to treasuries... inflation, meaningful 3-4% per year inflation, if its coming, may easily hold off longer than 18 months. probably will.

assuming the new financially conservative "sect" of the country which is finally gaining popularity has any success at producing a surplus, shrinking government and fixing a certain little red wagon, as i wishfully hope for, there is no reason to expect inflation to exceed 2% for decades. nothing is set in stone. certainly not short term interest rates.

of course i can hear pasadenian's objections already so consider it noted that CPI inflation which effects interest rates does NOT necessarily translate to inflation in general
  • October 05 2009
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new home sales at least im my area not speaking for other have many incentives placed besides the 8,000 tax credit. Builders out here have much deeper pockets so price incentvies on top of very good warranties is what i think is really pushing new home sales as well as the 8,000

As far as home imporovement I recently learned about a a loan the 203k although not an incentive it is a great resource for home improvements and investment properties that are intended to be owner occupieds. I just did one and my buyer was very happy with the outcome of this loan lamasr.

In st.peters missouri they also have a 5,000k incentive for home imporovements however the funds are closed as of right now.
  • October 05 2009
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Profile picture for the_country_hick
It sounds like a poor man trying to put a good spin on the fact that he has holes in his shoes. I got great a/c down here.

Nar has been saying things are great for so long no one should believe them any longer. What they leave out is how the seasonal adjustments skew the results. How things are not as rosey if you look at the real numbers unadjusted.

They want the$8k bribe to go on forever and have more people get it. That sounds like " I need more commissions" to me.
  • October 10 2009
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