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NEED to buy now! What should I do?

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Pamela, "pintopammy"

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I would appreciate some help from all you experts out there, agents and doomsayers alike - we own in Carmel Valley, CA (yes lucky us, though the house is SMALL) but my husband has started working part time as an instructor at USC (he's a musician). We love our CV house but the drives to LA have been exhausting on him (he is renting a guest house in glendale) and frankly - we miss each other! So we want to rent out the house here and move to LA - the north San gabriel valley. I am so afraid if we buy a house now, it will might go down in value substantially. I don't think renting is an option there-we have 2 dogs (very GOOD and clean/quiet dogs). We thought we would start seriously making offers on homes between xmas and the early spring - do you all think that is a good plan? anyone have any information on north san gabriel valley? glendale, burbank, altadena, pasadena, sierra madre, monrovia??? appreciate anyones thoughts - thanks so much!
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September 20 2007 - US
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fat HOMER SIMPSONS ANGRY BITTER RENTER, "FlipofftheFlipper"

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Pam- I have been following the Pasadena, Gendale as that's where I'm looking to buy and I'm seeing reduction in those areas. If you make an offer, I would low ball.

If you are registered on Ziprealty, you can see a lot of properties have price reduction.

"Charming tudor w/great curb appeal & expansive views of chevy chase canyon. Gracious public rooms w/vaulted ceilings & newer wood floors include formal living room plus family/great room (w/fireplace) that opens to beautifully redone fully-equipped kitchen & dining area. In addition to 3 bedrooms, there is a seperate loft/office. A large view patio connects the main house house to a detached 3 car garage, extra storage & spacious finished bonus room complete w/hvac & plumbed sink. Extra lot included.
ZipRealty Price Track:

Price Reduced: 08/09/07 -- $945,000 to $899,000"

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=G2095628&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=r3k5hz1c&source=MRMLS

Description
Beautifully remodeled traditional in san rafael hills with mountain views and huge deck to catch breezes and lounge on.Covered front porch leads to entry with coat closet. Marble and limestone in baths and kitchen with granite. Hardwood floors in most other rooms. Fireplaces in living room and bedroom 3. Wainscoting detail in living room and dining area. Back yard is fenced and surrounded by roses and bougainvillea. Attached 2 car garage, storage room accessed from lower level. Corner windows at breakfast area. Central ac and heat. Most windows newer dual pane. Lush landscape, room to garden and enjoy the mountain views. Roof and plumbing updated 2003, as well a kitchen and both baths.
ZipRealty Price Track:

Price Reduced: 09/12/07 -- $949,000 to $899,000

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=P2097228&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=tkh67kjk&source
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September 20 2007
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fat HOMER SIMPSONS ANGRY BITTER RENTER, "FlipofftheFlipper"

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This one is reduced by $200k in just 2 months. Nice looking house.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=G2093388&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=09jfjlw1&source=MRMLS
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September 20 2007
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Pamela, "pintopammy"

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thanks homer - didn't know about ziprealty, so i;'ll check it out, but really, whats your, and anybodys opinion on waiting? should we try to rent instead? does anyone rent to someone with 2 dogs?
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September 20 2007
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fat HOMER SIMPSONS ANGRY BITTER RENTER, "FlipofftheFlipper"

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Pam- I have been looking to buy as I'm sick of paying $20k a year in rent. I assumed that buying would be better than renting even at today's crazy CA home price if I lived in the same house for 10 years. Then I ran one of those rent versus owning calculator and I found out that I would have to live in the same house for the next 20 years. And when you have to factor in other life events, such as divorce and job relocation, buying a house in today's price isn't really a good idea. I have had 7 jobs in 2 states and 4 different cities in the past 10 years. 2 were by choice, the other 5 were due to layoff after mergers and acquisitions.

If you plan to live in the same house for the next 30 years, you should buy the house you want and can afford, no point in trying to time the market.

But if you're like the rest of us normal human being where we might have to relocate for jobs or possible divorce, family illness, etc....I don't think it's a good idea to buy at today's CA price.

But I' m not a expert, I just stayed in a Holiday Inn 20 years ago.
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September 20 2007
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Angelique01

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Oh, the Carmel Valley, so very beautiful!! I'm sure you don't want to come down here.

I'm also in So. Cal. and I'm waiting for a bit. There are some large rental complexes that take up to two pets with a pet deposit. I believe that Archstone charges a $50 per month premium on their rent for pets, but they allow two. The one thing that I did like about them is that they have a very low entry fee, something like a $399 deposit. I just checked, and they have one in Pasadena.

http://www.archstoneapartments.com/Apartments/California/Los_Angeles/Archstone_Pasadena/

I also like that they have short-term leases.

HTH
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September 20 2007
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fat HOMER SIMPSONS ANGRY BITTER RENTER, "FlipofftheFlipper"

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And I am an apartment renter in Downtown LA, there are many downtown lofts that will rent to dog owners. Rent for loft in Downtown LA runs about $1500 to $5000.

Since your husband works at USC(I assume he's working in the main campus near Downtown LA), there are many lofts that are only 10 minutes away from campus that will rent to dog owners(not sure about the 2 dogs thing, but I know most loft will rent for 1 dog owner, since those are the lofts I have been looking to rent). I currently walk to work, sure beats the crap out of having to do the 1 hour commute I used to have go through.
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September 20 2007
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Angelique01

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Smart move, Homer. I moved my business home so that I don't have to deal with LA traffic.
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September 20 2007
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2 Big 2 Fail

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I generally support buying, but I would be very cautious about having 2 mortgagaes, even if the house in Carmel is being rented out. If the tenant does not pay the rent, you are now completely responsible for 2 mortgages. If you feel you can handle the 2 mortgagaes, then I would buy. Massive price declines are highly unlikely in areas with a strong and vibrant economy like southern California.
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September 20 2007
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Randy_H

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Be sure to build in costs of repair to fix your house after renting it out for a year or more. Tenants never treat a house as if it were their own. Never. You'll have to spend some bucks to put it back into top-dollar form when you go to sell. Especially in your area where you can command premium from out-of-area types looking for a second home.
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September 20 2007
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2 Big 2 Fail

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That is what the security deposit is for. If there is damage to the house, you deduct it from the deposit.
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September 20 2007
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Angelique01

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Pamela, prices have been dropping here in the Valleys.
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September 20 2007
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2 Big 2 Fail

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"Your realtor should be able to check public records to see if there is enough equity in the property to support the potential of a successful low ball."

You have to be careful about this because public records do not always show if the owner took out a HELOC.
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September 20 2007
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Randy_H

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>>That is what the security deposit is for. If there is damage to the house, you deduct it from the deposit.<<

Absolutely. Just make sure you don't mentally allocate that to something else. And make sure you're prepared to actually assess and claim some or all of the security deposit. Many newbie landlords make the mistake of being too nice (not my experience, gathered from a 25 year veteran I know).
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September 20 2007
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Sugar1

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DON'T BUY NOW! Rent instead, no you are not throwing money away. Pay 1500 instead of 3500, put the difference aside and save it. You will need a down payment to buy in the future. I think the banks will start putting their REO's up for sale in Jan. Houses that sell for 500k are not a deal. They are for the 2% that are making 150 or more a year. Not for us mere mortals pulling down 40-50k. 3x income is the rule. So if you make 100k a year, yes you can buy a house for 300k. If not, well you get the pic.
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September 21 2007
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Pamela, "pintopammy"

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thanks for all your help - what we really want to do is do a short-term/vacation rental for our carmel valley home - tiny house but on 1 1/3 acre in lovely canyon 5 minutes from world-class restaurants, golf, wineries, carmel, beach, horseback riding, etc.
also, we are looking for similar TINY house in pasadena/sierra madre area in the 500,000's. We have been living in our 800 s/f house for 8 years now, so we know we can do it - we are much more interested in nice, safe neighborhood close to open space. we have no kids, but we like to walk the dogs ALOT!!
so, i just don't see rentals in those areas for a small house that takes dogs, but i don't know all the rental sites - could someone help me with that? since we are looking at the low end to buy, maybe this winter isnt such a bad time to buy? i just HATE renting, havent done it in years!
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September 21 2007
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Aldreth

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" I don't think renting is an option there-we have 2 dogs"

---If this is the only thing stopping you from renting, I think you should definitely buy.
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September 21 2007
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Pamela, "pintopammy"

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hmmm, thats not very helpful aldreth . . .
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September 21 2007
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klarek the realist

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Either aldreth is being sarcastic or he mangled his response. Shame on you aldreth, you sounded like an agent!
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September 21 2007
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LongIslandBubble

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"---If this is the only thing stopping you from renting, I think you should definitely buy. "

I think one of the agents sent him an "incentive" to say that via paypal.
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September 21 2007
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Pamela, "pintopammy"

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hope it is a mangle, cause i really just need some informed opinions here - not sarcasm
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September 21 2007
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"hope it is a mangle, cause i really just need some informed opinions here - not sarcasm "

Well....If you cannot find someone to rent you a house in which the dogs can stay, you have to decide which is better for you...

....keeping the dogs or lower prices.
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September 21 2007
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Marci Reinheimer

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Pamela, I don't work the So Cal market, but I have heard that it is as bad as it is up here in No Cal. If you find something that you feel is a good deal, then buy it. Nobody can say that prices are going to drop 50%, just like nobody can say prices are going to go up. It's your call.

Now for the bashing to begin in 3...2...1
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September 21 2007
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Carrie R

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Marci, your opinion is invalid seeing you are an agent and all. :)
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September 21 2007
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"Nobody can say that prices are going to drop 50%"

What difference does it make what people say is going to happen.....I don't listen to everyone, I just hold my wet finger in the wind and take a reading;


.....just did


You're right Marci...

They are only going to drop 49%
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September 21 2007
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You _can_ find a rental that will allow your pets. When we sold in 2005 and moved we had a similar problem (and then some).

This is what worked for us:

- Read between the lines on the rental postings. (Craigslist up here, and probably there too). Any posting that doesn't say something like "absolutely no pets permitted, non-negotiable, don't even ask" is worth calling and asking.

- We found that about 1 in 3 single family homes we were looking to rent would at least consider allowing a dog (we had one, very large and old dog).

- Be prepared to offer up an extra pet deposit. You should mention up front, as naturally as possible, "of course we're expecting to make a substantial security deposit for our pets".

- Finally, when you talk to the landlord be very natural and borderline dismissive of any real focus on your pets. Make something else the focus of your selection, not if he/she will allow your dogs. Without being arrogant, act almost as if you *know* that you'll be allowed to bring your dogs.

Even if you end up surrendering your pet deposit when you move out -- always a chance that landlord just keeps it and claims some minor scratch costs exactly $X to fix -- it's still _much_ less than you stand to lose buying before you're ready or believe the market has corrected.

Now the requisite Marci_Bash: I can't say prices will drop 50%. I *can* say that prices certainly are _not_ going up. Seems to me there is more chance of prices going down than up, so play the odds.
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September 21 2007
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Marci Reinheimer

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Carrie, I know, what was I thinking?

Randy, I do believe the prices will fall just because of the huge inventory alone. But I don't believe it's going to go down as far most doomers predict. And thank you for being nice when you bashed. LOL
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September 21 2007
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Aldreth

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I was being very sarcastic. The market is horrid, you shouldn't even be considering purchasing anything.

Lets take this one step at a time.
For a good market you need to do simple math.

Do we have good supply?
--Yep

Is the supply appropriately priced?
--Nope
http://randolfe.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/housing_projection.jpg

Do we have high demand?
--Nope

Why don't we have high demand?
--Prices are too expensive, Sellers are claiming bankruptcy, sellers are getting foreclosed on, ARMS are resetting the majority of which haven't yet and will not till next year, our currency is losing its value, investors aren't purchasing anything to do with real estate which is wreaking havoc with banks, hedge funds are imploding, i could go on....

What would it take for the market to correct?
--BUYERS who are able to put 20% down, have verifiably stable income, and have decent credit. However their incomes keep decreasing, thank you NAFTA.

Who exactly are the BUYERS?
--The working classes, many of whom are trying to sell right now so they can buy.

And just how are those buyers right now?
--They are being foreclosed on, claiming bankruptcy trying to refinance their ARMS, cutting costs on extra things, trying to make their income that has declined over the last few years go further even with the insane price increases on everything including groceries.

---So our buyers are getting foreclosed on. I wonder how long that will be on their record? Maybe after those fall off, we will start to see an increase in mortgage applications.

The market cannot correct until the credit markets do. They are inherently tied to one another. This will last a very long time, buying into the market now is a horrible idea.
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September 21 2007
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GatewayREOProperties

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We have homes in the areas you specified (bank owned) at 20-40% below market, most off market and not on the mls. let me know what you're looking for and I will send you to the asset manager who can help you!
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September 21 2007
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Randy_H

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Gateway,

If you have Marin, off-MLS, REO that are at least 25% below "comps" then please email me. lol
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September 21 2007
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Pamela, "pintopammy"

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thanks everyone - especially Randy H - I can't believe i am going to say this, but, i think i am going to redirect the substantial time i have spent on looking for a house to buy - to a house to rent!

there i said it

i thought i would feel better, but i don't - i'm a taurus so i'm very "homey", but not stupid!

Sure don't want to make a mistake! so if anyone knows of a little house to rent somewhere "down there" - let me know
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September 21 2007

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