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Instead of starting another thread, why didn't you justs append this comment to one of the dozens of threads where you claim that the NYC market was immune and wouldn't fall? You know, just for comic relief.
The NYC market is not included in the Case SHiller Index, so that would be a waste of time.
For a doomer, I bet your pissed that home prices are going in the wrong direction over the last several months.
"Of course, the August indexes don't reflect the financial market meltdown that hit in September and severely restricted access to credit, according to Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National City Corp (NCC, Fortune 500). He believes the pace of price declines has picked up since then."
Or maybe the decreases have just started for the NY market.
As opposed to the rest of your posts?
"For a doomer, I bet your pissed that home prices are going in the wrong direction over the last several months."
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"They are falling every single month, dingleberry."
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Prices are flat when you look at the MOM trends.
go NY go lol
Alpine from your link:
"Prices are "clearly nowhere near bottom yet," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics,"
"The 1% drop in August "may be the beginning of a renewed acceleration in the depreciation of U.S. house prices," wrote Harm Bandholz, an economist for UniCredit Markets."
"Credit conditions tightened significantly and foreclosures mounted in September and October."
""The 1% drop in August "may be the beginning of a renewed acceleration in the depreciation of U.S. house prices,"
Prices did not drop in NY 1% in Ausugst. They are talking about the national numbers, which is stupid to follow if your only interested in 1 specific housing market.
new york will get an enema. HUGE layoffs coming in the financial fields, and wildly over inflated prices. New york will come tumbling down like a stack of cards.
Ahhh, 2Big2 Fail, the old "all real estate is local" defense. I have learned over my career that whenever someone makes this argument, you should get away from that market as fast as possible!
I am confused, if the market is increasing, why did you post negative numbers?
I know I only got a B in Calc III, but I really thought negative numbers, meant it got smaller.
Are you trying to state, that the LOSSES are getting smaller? Becuase that is definitely a lot different.
"I am confused, if the market is increasing, why did you post negative numbers?"
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"and wildly over inflated prices."
Define "over inflated." A 1 bedroom condo in Manhattan is always going to cost more than a McMansion in the middle of the Phoenix desert. THat is not over inflated. And a 3 fixer in Bergen or Westchester County is also always going to cost MORE than a brand new house in Phoenix. You see, the problem with living someplece where houses are cheap is that you assume the rest of the country is over inflated when it is not.
*3 bedroom fixer*
Prices in Pheonix are down 30%. Prices in NY (excluding Manhattan) are down 6%. If that is not enough to justify that real estate is local, I don't know what is. THink about that. For every $1 my house has lost in value, Rob's house has lost $5!
All downturns are different. ANd I could not care less what happened in the pass becuase that will not give me any useful info.
LOL, only alpo would call these increases.....
Alpo, I've got your increasing projections right here:
April: -8.4%
May: -7.9%
June: -7.3%
July: -7.4%
August: -6.9%
Sept: -6.4%
Oct: -5.8%
Nov: -5.9%
Dec: -5.4%
Jan09: -4.9%
Feb09: -4.3%
Mar09: -4.4%
Apr09: -3.9%
May09: -3.4%
Apr09: -2.8%
May09: -2.9%
Jun09: -2.4%
Jul09: -1.9%
Aug09: -1.3%
Sep09: -1.4%
Oct09: -0.9%
Nov09: -0.4%
Dec09: 2%
WOOOHOOOO, WE'VE ONLY GOT 14 MORE MORE MONTHS OF INCREASES BEFORE THINGS BREAK EVEN.
GOOD CALL ALPO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SO the housing market is going to bottom next year? Good call ghennis!
With the exception of the period form June to July, there have been consistent month-over-month INCREASES.
OK, let's cut the bu*l. Raw CS numbers for the last year from: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_History_102831.xls
Sep 206.37
Oct 205.51
Nov 204.36
Dec 202.14
Jan 200.50
Feb 198.34
Mar 196.53
Apr 194.74
May 194.23
Jun 194.71
Jul 193.30
Aug 192.84
With the exception of a rather negligible 0.24% May-Jun increase, I see consistent month-over-month decreases.
And when prices start rising, I am confident that they will rise FASTER than they are currently declining. To date, we've had 2 years of price declines, but that has only erased 1 year of price gains.
..For a doomer, I bet your pissed that home prices are going in the wrong direction over the last several months..
Does not matter much which direction home prices are headed. Klarek is priced out.. big time, and obsessed with the idea. He must have lost his shirt in real estate not so long ago. Spleng is the other questionable one. He thinks homes might be worthless for the next 30 years. I don't think anyone can help him.
Hey doomers, I have not posted this stuff in a while, so here is the latest.
I still have my main residence purchased in 05. I am current in my mortgage, so I don't need help from the governement. My mortgage is the same as rent, so a short sale, a loan modification, and all the other current buzz words are all laughable options.
I still have my condo purchased in 07, and I am current with my payments there too. The property has been leased to a very nice older couple since the initial purchase almost a year ago. I see other similar units that have sold as recently as last month for about what I paid, so I won't need government help there either.
I could use a bailout for my company stocks though. They've gone down 60% this year.
In my area, foreclosures had drop by 40% for the month of September. Some people is comparing a third tier city like Phoenix as the same as other cities.
"Does not matter much which direction home prices are headed. Klarek is priced out.. big time, and obsessed with the idea. He must have lost his shirt in real estate not so long ago."
Okay cheertard, time for a simple math lesson.
125.41 <- where I bought
........
227.56 <- where I sold
223.85
218.35
213.19
207.93
203.37
201.30
199.26
197.60
195.48
194.86 <- where we are now
Dumb sh1t.
Alpo, your post subject sez "Bottom is Here (or Fast Approaching)" yet the data you use to support it clearly shows the bottom is not here, nor fast approaching.
Therefore I am flagging this thread for BS.
... and, it's free and anonymous
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NY Case Shiller Index: Bottom is Here (or Fast Approaching)
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Looks like the bottom is around the corner for the NY housing market!
Here is the data from the last several months for comaprison purposes. With the exception of the period form June to July, there have been consistent month-over-month INCREASES.
April: -8.4%
May: -7.9%
June: -7.3%
July: -7.4%
August: -6.9%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-prices-off-record-166/story.aspx?guid={F0347EE0-AF31-4185-AB42-CA64EA487756}&dist=msr_11
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