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Replies (9)
- kanzus
- Contributions:40
Here's an interesting video on whether we have reached the bottom in real estate and factors to consider for home buying (video). Main points are below.
Has the real estate market hit bottom in your area? Factors to consider:
1. Unemployment.
2. Housing inventory.
3. Home sellers on the sidelines.
4. Mortgage defaults increasing.
5. Adjustable rate mortgages to reset.
Questions to ask before buying:
1. Are jobs increasing in your area?
2. Are local residents able to afford average home prices?
3. Are the least expensive homes selling? Are they flying off the market?
4. How many sale signs are there in the neighborhood?
5. Is there buzz about the area?
Has the real estate market hit bottom in your area? Factors to consider:
1. Unemployment.
2. Housing inventory.
3. Home sellers on the sidelines.
4. Mortgage defaults increasing.
5. Adjustable rate mortgages to reset.
Questions to ask before buying:
1. Are jobs increasing in your area?
2. Are local residents able to afford average home prices?
3. Are the least expensive homes selling? Are they flying off the market?
4. How many sale signs are there in the neighborhood?
5. Is there buzz about the area?
- interested_observer
- Contributions:517
Get ready for a series of posts from Realtors with the statement "no one has a crystal ball" or words to that effect. An eye opener for me was signing up for a trial membership at RealtyTrac. When I looked at the map view of my neighborhood, I was absolutely shocked by the number of homes with a NOD, scheduled for auction or bank owned (and I'm a long time doomer). At least in my area (Los Angeles), I believe that homes are still overpriced by at least 20% and that prices will continue to decline over the next year or two. How can anyone believe that prices have reached bottom in this environment?
- NTETS, "Mr Caveat"
- Contributions:6436
well, i hate to do it, but i would like to know how 11.3% was calculated... oddly specific prediction given the rather general(and highly manipulated) data...
1. Unemployment.
2. Housing inventory.
3. Home sellers on the sidelines.
4. Mortgage defaults increasing.
5. Adjustable rate mortgages to reset.
all valid concerns, all very vague in practice.
How can anyone believe that prices have reached bottom in this environment?
though shear force of will, i'm sure
1. Unemployment.
2. Housing inventory.
3. Home sellers on the sidelines.
4. Mortgage defaults increasing.
5. Adjustable rate mortgages to reset.
all valid concerns, all very vague in practice.
How can anyone believe that prices have reached bottom in this environment?
though shear force of will, i'm sure
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21373
Was the calculation before or after assuming that a 2010 "home buyer tax incentive" would be implimented? If it assumes a home buyer tax incentive, what did they factor in for the amount and who would qualify?
How could they believe it reached a bottom? Through media and realtor propaganda, I'm sure. Same as always. Just like in the book 1984, that "screen" cannot be turned off.
How could they believe it reached a bottom? Through media and realtor propaganda, I'm sure. Same as always. Just like in the book 1984, that "screen" cannot be turned off.
- jonestim
- Contributions:83
I looked at their prediction for my area (Bend, OR) and am amazed that they predict a 6.9% drop in median price from Q2 2009 to Q2 2010. We had a bigger drop than that from Q2 2009 to Q3 2009. We are already below where they predict us to be by next summer.
We have 15.9% unemployment, defaults are over double from last year, and there is evidence of population shrinkage. Can you say flawed predictions? For at least the last 6 months medians have been down 25-35% YOY. For the most recent quarter we were down 29.1% YOY.
6.9%. HA..... That's one quarter's worth of decline, not one year's worth.
We have 15.9% unemployment, defaults are over double from last year, and there is evidence of population shrinkage. Can you say flawed predictions? For at least the last 6 months medians have been down 25-35% YOY. For the most recent quarter we were down 29.1% YOY.
6.9%. HA..... That's one quarter's worth of decline, not one year's worth.
- workabee
- Contributions:1030
Man people are gonna be ticked if the market drop another 11% especially the agents who keep saying the bottom passed already. They don't know, they just get paid push the product.
- NTETS, "Mr Caveat"
- Contributions:6436
yep... thats about the size of it. maybe after 5 more years of it people will start researching stuff for themselves...
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4382
Yes, not only the home prices gonna drop another 11%, it is on the way go back to the 1999 level, it take longer than what we thought however.
For example: Orange County, CA. the lowest home prices was at Feb. 2009, and the home prices Sep. 2009 were returned to Sep. 2008 level,
From Feb. 2009 to Sep. 2009 is 8 months.
From Jan. 2009 returns to Oct. 2008 is 4 months.
The ratio is 2 on 1, rewind point is at Feb. 2009.
In other words, in order to rewind the home prices back 1 month, Orange County needed 2 months go forward, therefore we need 20 years for the home prices return to 1999 level.
2009 - 1999 = 10 years.
10 years x 2 = 20 years.
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/13/oc-home-price/40151/
For example: Orange County, CA. the lowest home prices was at Feb. 2009, and the home prices Sep. 2009 were returned to Sep. 2008 level,
From Feb. 2009 to Sep. 2009 is 8 months.
From Jan. 2009 returns to Oct. 2008 is 4 months.
The ratio is 2 on 1, rewind point is at Feb. 2009.
In other words, in order to rewind the home prices back 1 month, Orange County needed 2 months go forward, therefore we need 20 years for the home prices return to 1999 level.
2009 - 1999 = 10 years.
10 years x 2 = 20 years.
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/13/oc-home-price/40151/
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21373
It is not a linear function, so your assessment is incorrect. Besides, the numbers I've checked for Orange County indicate substantually more drop. You already know how the realtors spin the data based only on what is in the multiples.
If the "size" of the houses that are "selling" is increasing, that it looks like the "median sold price" increases, or doesn't drop as much. But if you adjust for what actually sells as Zillow does, then you get an entirely different picture.
The realtor provided statistics are only designed to deceive people to sell houses. It indicates why you should not trust any realtor for any numbers or any other information that will affect you financially or otherwise.
At least politicians are required to recuse themselves if it "looks" like there may be a conflict of interest.
If the "size" of the houses that are "selling" is increasing, that it looks like the "median sold price" increases, or doesn't drop as much. But if you adjust for what actually sells as Zillow does, then you get an entirely different picture.
The realtor provided statistics are only designed to deceive people to sell houses. It indicates why you should not trust any realtor for any numbers or any other information that will affect you financially or otherwise.
At least politicians are required to recuse themselves if it "looks" like there may be a conflict of interest.
National median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30, 2010
A handful of metro areas will buck the trend, according to Fiserv. Six markets will remain flat, and 33 will actually post gains. The biggest winner will be the Kennewick, Wash., metro area, where home prices have ramped up 8.9% over the past three years and are expected to increase another 3.4% by June 2010.
Fairbanks, Alaska, prices are anticipated to rise 2.5%, while Anchorage will climb 2.1%. Elmira, N.Y., prices may inch up 1.8%.
The nation's biggest metro area, New York City, will underperform the nation as a whole over the next two years, according to Fiserv. Prices, which have already fallen 21.7% to a median of $375,000, are expected to fall 17.4% by June 2011.
Home values in the nation's second largest city, Los Angeles, have fallen 43.3% since June 2006 to a median of $313,000. They are expected to dive another 20.2% over by June 2010, and then start to climb in 2011. Chicago prices, which have fallen 25.2% to $227,000, will drop only 4.1% over the next 12 months and then starting to climb.
The Detroit metro area now has the dubious distinction of having the lowest home prices in the country. Prices have dropped 51.7% to a median of $50,000. They're expected to fall another 9.1% and then stabilize.Stating a discriminatory preference in an advertisement for housing is illegal. If you think this content is discriminatory or otherwise inappropriate and feel it should be removed from Zillow, please let us know by completing the information above.
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