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- Michael Emery, "MikeEmery"
- Contributions:7298
As we can see from recent reports, inventories are down while prices are rising.
Dang, I've been reading the wrong newspapers!
Mortgage rates are trending up
As they almost always do in the Spring.
Dang, I've been reading the wrong newspapers!
Mortgage rates are trending up
As they almost always do in the Spring.
- Georgina OBryan, "GOBryan1"
- Contributions:483
The only homes I've seen with decline in value lately are those that are listed over-priced, in my area.
- Pasha Missaghi, "Pasha Missaghi"
- Contributions:40
even assuming you are right and inventories are down, wouldn't that cause the prices to rise anyway? not sure what part of this report is conflicting
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
"The only homes I've seen with decline in value lately are those that are listed over-priced, in my area."
Zillow's Home Value Index for the Service Areas you list in your profile show a much different trend:
Altamonte Springs: -24.1% Y-o-Y, -5.3% Q-o-Q
Apopka: (info not available)
Casselberry: -11.1% Y-o-Y, -2.5% Q-o-Q
Heathrow: (info not available)
Lake Mary: -3.1% Y-o-Y, -1.3% Q-o-Q
Longwood: -10.7% Y-o-Y, -3.2% Q-o-Q
Maitland: (info not available)
Orlando: -28.0% Y-o-Y, -5.8% Q-o-Q
Oviedo: -3.5% Y-o-Y, -2.1% Q-o-Q
Sanford: -24.6% Y-o-Y, -4.2% Q-o-Q
Winter Park: (info not available)
Winter Springs: -8.1% Y-o-Y, -1.7% Q-o-Q
Zillow's Home Value Index for the Service Areas you list in your profile show a much different trend:
Altamonte Springs: -24.1% Y-o-Y, -5.3% Q-o-Q
Apopka: (info not available)
Casselberry: -11.1% Y-o-Y, -2.5% Q-o-Q
Heathrow: (info not available)
Lake Mary: -3.1% Y-o-Y, -1.3% Q-o-Q
Longwood: -10.7% Y-o-Y, -3.2% Q-o-Q
Maitland: (info not available)
Orlando: -28.0% Y-o-Y, -5.8% Q-o-Q
Oviedo: -3.5% Y-o-Y, -2.1% Q-o-Q
Sanford: -24.6% Y-o-Y, -4.2% Q-o-Q
Winter Park: (info not available)
Winter Springs: -8.1% Y-o-Y, -1.7% Q-o-Q
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
"There may be no better time than now!!"
This coming from a RE agent whose market is down 8.9% for the year before accounting for the acceleration of that decline over the past six months (a whopping 5.5% just over the past three months).
Here's a cautionary tale for those RE pros who feel compelled to urge consumers that "Now is the time to buy!":
this is probably the best time to buy a house
posted Sept 2007
This coming from a RE agent whose market is down 8.9% for the year before accounting for the acceleration of that decline over the past six months (a whopping 5.5% just over the past three months).
Here's a cautionary tale for those RE pros who feel compelled to urge consumers that "Now is the time to buy!":
this is probably the best time to buy a house
posted Sept 2007
- Darrell Self, "Darrell Self"
- Contributions:349
The investors are usually out ahead of the curve. They know that rates will rise and want to lock in the lower rates to reduce their monthly nut on the property. There really is not a better time to jump in if you have the ability to purchase at this time. Rates will rise with all the money being printed by the fed and they will most likely do so quickly reducing affordability soon.
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
"Rates will rise with all the money being printed by the fed and they will most likely do so quickly reducing affordability soon."
Wouldn't a diminishing pool of buyers (among an already restricted group) due to reduced affordability put further downward pressure on house prices in a stagnant economy?
Wouldn't a diminishing pool of buyers (among an already restricted group) due to reduced affordability put further downward pressure on house prices in a stagnant economy?
- SteadyState
- Contributions:787
Yawn. Your brothers and sisters from the NAR have said this in:
2007
2008
2009
2010
They will continue to say it because they need the commission from sales. However, I can cite various reasons why you predictions are absolutely wrong for areas that I am familiar with in Northern California (Saratoga, Cupertino, and Sunnyvale)
- Large disparity between rents and mortgages for equivalent homes
- Home prices incompatible with incomes and demographics
- Large shadow inventory of homes that has yet to make it way through the long judicial process of foreclosures
- Gradual withdrawal of government backed funding of mortgages
- Gradual withdrawal of mortgage interest deduction
- Increased taxes and lowering of safety net services due to State budgetary problems
- Unrealistic transaction costs for homes (10%)
- Tighter and tighter credit standards
Most importantly, independent economists (those not affiliated/supported by the NAR) indicate further downward pressure on home prices.
Spring is here and this is the season of false positives and sustained spin by the NAR spin doctors.
2007
2008
2009
2010
They will continue to say it because they need the commission from sales. However, I can cite various reasons why you predictions are absolutely wrong for areas that I am familiar with in Northern California (Saratoga, Cupertino, and Sunnyvale)
- Large disparity between rents and mortgages for equivalent homes
- Home prices incompatible with incomes and demographics
- Large shadow inventory of homes that has yet to make it way through the long judicial process of foreclosures
- Gradual withdrawal of government backed funding of mortgages
- Gradual withdrawal of mortgage interest deduction
- Increased taxes and lowering of safety net services due to State budgetary problems
- Unrealistic transaction costs for homes (10%)
- Tighter and tighter credit standards
Most importantly, independent economists (those not affiliated/supported by the NAR) indicate further downward pressure on home prices.
Spring is here and this is the season of false positives and sustained spin by the NAR spin doctors.
- Jeff Norris, "JeffNorrisHomes"
- Contributions:37
As a fellow Realtor, I wish you guys would quit posting this stuff. It is painful to watch everyone get hammered on these boards. To each his own on whether or not it is "the time to buy". Why can't we just be there to help them when they are?
- Jack Mulrooney, "ConnecticutRealtor"
- Contributions:484
Jeff, You should not feel an pain here. As with most investments, there are always those who express their pain by knocking anyone or everyone who ever invests.
In this case I posted a leading question to start a discussion about where we are.
As you can see there are useful comments and comments that are indicative of pain already suffered.
I hope the conversation helps those who can and should invest.
"There is nothing to fear but, fear itself".
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4699
Darrell, when interest rates go from 5% to 7% buying power will drop by 23.7%. That essentially take a 5% $200k payment and turns it into a 7% $153k payment.
If incomes do not rise how can purchase prices not fall more to reflect the real buying ability of those who wish to buy a house?
I would far rather buy at the same payment a lower house price. That way if I need or want to sell I can do so with much less loss of money due to resetting values.
If incomes do not rise how can purchase prices not fall more to reflect the real buying ability of those who wish to buy a house?
I would far rather buy at the same payment a lower house price. That way if I need or want to sell I can do so with much less loss of money due to resetting values.
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
"To each his own on whether or not it is "the time to buy". Why can't we just be there to help them when they are?"
Bravo, Jeff. You've summed up the sentiment most buyers are looking for in the short time you've been here that many of your fellow agents haven't figured out in years on these boards.
RE agents aren't expected to be financial advisers or have an advanced degree in economics. Those that proffer advice in that vein tend to undermine their own credibility.
What Jack refers to as fear some informed consumers (or as Jack might presumptuously mischaracterize as bitter, burned buyers) might perceive as prudence.
Bravo, Jeff. You've summed up the sentiment most buyers are looking for in the short time you've been here that many of your fellow agents haven't figured out in years on these boards.
RE agents aren't expected to be financial advisers or have an advanced degree in economics. Those that proffer advice in that vein tend to undermine their own credibility.
What Jack refers to as fear some informed consumers (or as Jack might presumptuously mischaracterize as bitter, burned buyers) might perceive as prudence.
- Ofe Polack, "Ofe Polack"
- Contributions:1418
I think Jack, as a real estate professional, achieved his goal. He posted a question that would create a discussion, and he certainly did! The truth of the matter is that none of us, Realtors, investors, lenders, etc....have a crystal ball to foresee the future. We need to keep on top of the local available stats and offer to our clients the best possible service under whatever circumstance the future holds.
- Jack Mulrooney, "ConnecticutRealtor"
- Contributions:484
"No worse fate can befall a young man or woman than becoming prematurely entrenched in prudence and negation."(Kurt Hamsun)
There is nothing more imprudent than excessive prudence."(Charles Caleb Colton)
"Who makes quick use of the moment is a genius of prudence" (Johann Kaspar Lavater).
If this is not the time to take advantage of conditions in the market, I will wait for the experts or naysayers?
I am not new here and the one constant I can see are those who have criticism ready no mater what the market is doing.
How does it get any better than this?
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
"If this is not the time to take advantage of conditions in the market, I will wait for the experts or naysayers?"
In which group would you place Shiff, Shilling, Roubini, Shiller and the Dallas Fed? Three of these economists (Shiff, Shilling & Roubini) have projected another 20%+ decline in the housing market (the Dallas Fed cites data that supports their projections), and Shiller has expressed his surprise and concern over the recent decline as well.
"How does it get any better than this?"
Lower Prices.
Too many consumers only focus on the monthly nut and lose sight of the bigger picture. Rising rates may impact buyers short-term, but they will ultimately put downward pressure on prices without a proportional increase in wages/incomes to offset the loss of buying power in a stagnant economy.
I would much rather pay a lower purchase price coupled with a higher rate than the alternative, especially when it comes time to sell again. While some buyers jump at low rates, I will have the luxury of seeing how the shadow inventory/Option ARM resets/removal of gov't market manipulation/Case-Shiller's recent downward trend/economists projections of a continuing falling market plays out.
In which group would you place Shiff, Shilling, Roubini, Shiller and the Dallas Fed? Three of these economists (Shiff, Shilling & Roubini) have projected another 20%+ decline in the housing market (the Dallas Fed cites data that supports their projections), and Shiller has expressed his surprise and concern over the recent decline as well.
"How does it get any better than this?"
Lower Prices.
Too many consumers only focus on the monthly nut and lose sight of the bigger picture. Rising rates may impact buyers short-term, but they will ultimately put downward pressure on prices without a proportional increase in wages/incomes to offset the loss of buying power in a stagnant economy.
I would much rather pay a lower purchase price coupled with a higher rate than the alternative, especially when it comes time to sell again. While some buyers jump at low rates, I will have the luxury of seeing how the shadow inventory/Option ARM resets/removal of gov't market manipulation/Case-Shiller's recent downward trend/economists projections of a continuing falling market plays out.
- Joan Braunschweiger, "Morris County NJ"
- Contributions:1543
Jack, I'm with Jeff Norris. Stop posting this "Best, Bestest, Bestesterest Time to Buy!" stuff and understand that low interest rates, declining prices and high inventory still doesn't necessarily make ideal conditions for people who are in a shaky job situation, or people living in a location where prices are still in decline or the market is getting flooded with short sales and foreclosures. Plus other life/market stuff I neglected to mention.
Jeff said what I have been saying perhaps less eloquently since I entered this business regarding buyers and when is the best time for them to buy: "Why can't we just be there to help them when they are? "
Jeff said what I have been saying perhaps less eloquently since I entered this business regarding buyers and when is the best time for them to buy: "Why can't we just be there to help them when they are? "
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4699
Jack, have you seen these?
Peter Schiff: Here's Why Home Prices Have To Decline At Least 20% And Probably More
The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market - Economic Letter, December 2010 - FRB Dallas <---the fed
Why High Interest Rates Are Good for the Future of the Housing Market and for Those Buying Houses by Matthew Sercely
NAHB: Interest Rates and House Prices: the "Priced Out" Effect
Do you know what the housing bubble really looks like? ... - Zillow Real Estate Advice
Sales price nationally $175,200 -5.9% Y-o-Y
Total homes sold 284,949 -13.0 % Y-o-Y
Median list price $189,000 -5.5% Y-o-Y
Listings with price cuts 24.5% Y-o-Y
Median price cut 7.1%
Sold for a loss 34.1% up 6.8% Y-o-Y
Foreclosures resale 20% up 4.9% Y-o-Y
Decreasing values 69% up 32.5% Y-o-Y
All from http://www.zillow.com/local-info/
None of the above makes it look like a good time to buy. What are you basing that one besides wanting to make a commission?
Buying an asset whose value is dropping is very imprudent. Perhaps the only thing worse is advising someone to buy an item knowing they could get it a lot cheaper if they just waited a little while longer.
Peter Schiff: Here's Why Home Prices Have To Decline At Least 20% And Probably More
The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market - Economic Letter, December 2010 - FRB Dallas <---the fed
Why High Interest Rates Are Good for the Future of the Housing Market and for Those Buying Houses by Matthew Sercely
NAHB: Interest Rates and House Prices: the "Priced Out" Effect
Do you know what the housing bubble really looks like? ... - Zillow Real Estate Advice
Sales price nationally $175,200 -5.9% Y-o-Y
Total homes sold 284,949 -13.0 % Y-o-Y
Median list price $189,000 -5.5% Y-o-Y
Listings with price cuts 24.5% Y-o-Y
Median price cut 7.1%
Sold for a loss 34.1% up 6.8% Y-o-Y
Foreclosures resale 20% up 4.9% Y-o-Y
Decreasing values 69% up 32.5% Y-o-Y
All from http://www.zillow.com/local-info/
None of the above makes it look like a good time to buy. What are you basing that one besides wanting to make a commission?
Buying an asset whose value is dropping is very imprudent. Perhaps the only thing worse is advising someone to buy an item knowing they could get it a lot cheaper if they just waited a little while longer.
- Jack Mulrooney, "ConnecticutRealtor"
- Contributions:484
Hi Dan, Yes I have seen all of this. I know that, unfortunately, many are concerned about jobs and maybe they have reasons.
However, when many of the 'experts" are still protecting their reputations, sellers are still getting hurt by low prices and Buyers are still advantaged by low interest rates. Buyers can take advantage of lower prices while Sellers who are trading up, still are advantaged by the math.
The market will never recover unless we start buying and selling at a normal pace.
If the market will not reinvigorate itself than what are we left to rely on .... the government???????
The housing market can be self supporting if we stop worrying about what might happen. Activity in the market increases support for jobs in many other related businesses.
SO... let's get off our asses, stop complaining and let's get this market and economy going! Certainly, waiting for the experts to feel better will not do it!!!
However, when many of the 'experts" are still protecting their reputations, sellers are still getting hurt by low prices and Buyers are still advantaged by low interest rates. Buyers can take advantage of lower prices while Sellers who are trading up, still are advantaged by the math.
The market will never recover unless we start buying and selling at a normal pace.
If the market will not reinvigorate itself than what are we left to rely on .... the government???????
The housing market can be self supporting if we stop worrying about what might happen. Activity in the market increases support for jobs in many other related businesses.
SO... let's get off our asses, stop complaining and let's get this market and economy going! Certainly, waiting for the experts to feel better will not do it!!!
Jack:
better to not post, and be thought a nitwit, than to post and remove all doubt! - to badly paraphrase Mark Twain.
Lets examine some excerpts from your last post:
"The market will never recover unless we start buying and selling at a normal pace. "
So, your suggestion is people should buy to help the market? Is that the advice you give your clients? "Your housing market needs you, buy a home today!"
"If the market will not reinvigorate itself than what are we left to rely on .... the government???????"
-ok, anthropomorphizing nonsense aside, you are highly confused, economically speaking. Markets are what they are, trying to influence them is basically a waste of time and money, whether governments or individuals do it.
The housing market can be self supporting if we stop worrying about what might happen.
In other words, "just buy a home, don't worry if prices will fall... because... hell who knows what you are trying to say here, it certainly isn't worth trying to figure out...
better to not post, and be thought a nitwit, than to post and remove all doubt! - to badly paraphrase Mark Twain.
Lets examine some excerpts from your last post:
"The market will never recover unless we start buying and selling at a normal pace. "
So, your suggestion is people should buy to help the market? Is that the advice you give your clients? "Your housing market needs you, buy a home today!"
"If the market will not reinvigorate itself than what are we left to rely on .... the government???????"
-ok, anthropomorphizing nonsense aside, you are highly confused, economically speaking. Markets are what they are, trying to influence them is basically a waste of time and money, whether governments or individuals do it.
The housing market can be self supporting if we stop worrying about what might happen.
In other words, "just buy a home, don't worry if prices will fall... because... hell who knows what you are trying to say here, it certainly isn't worth trying to figure out...
- Jack Mulrooney, "ConnecticutRealtor"
- Contributions:484
Hi Azrob, We have had this conversation before.....
My suggestion is very simple ... yes!
and yours was ??????????????????
Yes, we had this conversation a while back. In the meantime, case-shiller came out, and prices everywhere were seen trending down...
Bank of America is up and running it's foreclosure machine again, I'm seeing a big uptick in foreclosures here, they will be coming on the market in the coming months.
Personally, I'd prefer to buy at a lower price, but you can do whatever you want with your money.
Bank of America is up and running it's foreclosure machine again, I'm seeing a big uptick in foreclosures here, they will be coming on the market in the coming months.
Personally, I'd prefer to buy at a lower price, but you can do whatever you want with your money.
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4699
Jack, I am planning on buying 1 house. When I buy I will not care about the market. I will not care that house prices could go higher. I only care about buying that one house I will live in until I die.
I do not care about the housing market recovering. I do not care about real estate agents making money. I only want to buy that one place one time and that is it.
I do not want to overpay as that would be both foolish and irresponsible.
"sellers are still getting hurt by low prices and Buyers are still advantaged by low interest rates."
Sellers are actually seeing higher prices if they bought before 2000. They are seeing much higher prices if they bought before 1980. It is only those who bought when house prices were unsustainably high that are hurting. It is no different than those who bought tech stocks in 2000 and lost money. They made a bad bet. If you did not try to get people to buy tech stocks after that bubble burst why is this bubble any different?
Buyers are disadvantaged by low interest rates. It gets them to pay more than a house is really worth based on inflation adjusted historical averages. Higher interest rates are needed for a successful market to operate long term.
I do not care about the housing market recovering. I do not care about real estate agents making money. I only want to buy that one place one time and that is it.
I do not want to overpay as that would be both foolish and irresponsible.
"sellers are still getting hurt by low prices and Buyers are still advantaged by low interest rates."
Sellers are actually seeing higher prices if they bought before 2000. They are seeing much higher prices if they bought before 1980. It is only those who bought when house prices were unsustainably high that are hurting. It is no different than those who bought tech stocks in 2000 and lost money. They made a bad bet. If you did not try to get people to buy tech stocks after that bubble burst why is this bubble any different?
Buyers are disadvantaged by low interest rates. It gets them to pay more than a house is really worth based on inflation adjusted historical averages. Higher interest rates are needed for a successful market to operate long term.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21466
"The truth of the matter is that none of us, Realtors, investors, lenders, etc....have a crystal ball..." -
I have lots of extras if any of those want to buy some! But of course, then they will no longer have an excuse for giving bad wrong advice, so of course they won't buy one, even if it is on clearance special.
Besides, just because they have one doesn't mean they know how to use it. If they can't even use Excel to do Linear regression and extrapolation, and comparisons of rent verses buy costs; why should we expect them to know how to use a crystal ball when there is so little literature published on the subject?
One thing we know for certain... those that watched the trends and paid attention to them knew where the market was heading, and those that referenced the Crystal Ball that they didn't want to buy, were completely off base in comparison.
I have lots of extras if any of those want to buy some! But of course, then they will no longer have an excuse for giving bad wrong advice, so of course they won't buy one, even if it is on clearance special.
Besides, just because they have one doesn't mean they know how to use it. If they can't even use Excel to do Linear regression and extrapolation, and comparisons of rent verses buy costs; why should we expect them to know how to use a crystal ball when there is so little literature published on the subject?
One thing we know for certain... those that watched the trends and paid attention to them knew where the market was heading, and those that referenced the Crystal Ball that they didn't want to buy, were completely off base in comparison.
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
Anyone with a calculator can figure out the market.
I am with you Dan......I am determine to give my best effort to find a home this spring......but if what I want (price too) can't be had then so be it...
- Jack Mulrooney, "ConnecticutRealtor"
- Contributions:484
Lady Chattel, You should do your best to take advantage of the current market and the current interest rates.
You do not sound like a short term investor who is taking risks as part of their business. SO.... buy the home, love the home and enjoy the home for as long as you can.
In the long term, buy vs. rent, you will be much happier with the home you own.
Try to take advantage of the advice of a good REALTOR and have a very happy home!
After all this time I am thinking that there is a HUGE pent up demand for housing.... They have to live somewhere!!!! So I expect this spring to be the beginning of a big push to take advantage of the market and the interest rates (despite the advice of the experts).
Best Wishes!!!
You do not sound like a short term investor who is taking risks as part of their business. SO.... buy the home, love the home and enjoy the home for as long as you can.
In the long term, buy vs. rent, you will be much happier with the home you own.
Try to take advantage of the advice of a good REALTOR and have a very happy home!
After all this time I am thinking that there is a HUGE pent up demand for housing.... They have to live somewhere!!!! So I expect this spring to be the beginning of a big push to take advantage of the market and the interest rates (despite the advice of the experts).
Best Wishes!!!
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
Not quite since most of the houses I am looking at are priced around $100K or more above what they SHOULD be at (taking what the price paid in pre-bubble years and 3-4% appreciation into consideration). When I plug numbers into the NYT rent/vs byy calculator it still says it is better to rent than buy after 30 years......so if I buy an overpriced house today instead of continuing to rent....it will be THIRTY YEARS before it was a good thing.....so I will have paid down my mortgage for thirty years to have a house with equity, meanwhile I pay $1K less to rent and since taxes will continue to rise on houses and the tax deduction gets lower and non-existent after a while then the house isn't such a great bet. The only thing you are betting on is that the house appreciates so that the amount you pay down is translated into equity.........
I saw a nice home tonight, it was flipped several times. In 1999 it was $229K, in 2005 it was sold for $658K and today it is listed for sale at $450K.......so tell me, is it a bargain. I just spent a few minutes showing my husband why that house was no bargain at all........funny how an hour ago he was saying "lets contract on it" and then when I ran the numbers he really didn't like it anymore.......
sort of like the ugly chick at a bar.....after a few beers she looks hot, but eventually the hangover comes and you realize she wasn't good looking enough.
I saw a nice home tonight, it was flipped several times. In 1999 it was $229K, in 2005 it was sold for $658K and today it is listed for sale at $450K.......so tell me, is it a bargain. I just spent a few minutes showing my husband why that house was no bargain at all........funny how an hour ago he was saying "lets contract on it" and then when I ran the numbers he really didn't like it anymore.......
sort of like the ugly chick at a bar.....after a few beers she looks hot, but eventually the hangover comes and you realize she wasn't good looking enough.
- hpvanc
- Contributions:2579
I'm sure that Lady Chattel can use her calculator and come to a well informed decision as she attempts to answer "now is the time for buyers?" again this spring. I'm reasonably sure your talking points won't sway her, and that her decision will be based on analysis, and economics not emotions.
Good luck trying to talk to the people that currently have the financial means to buy, it seems that a lot of Realtors are having a problem with it.
Good luck trying to talk to the people that currently have the financial means to buy, it seems that a lot of Realtors are having a problem with it.
- SoCal_Engr
- Contributions:5666
"After all this time I am thinking that there is a HUGE pent up demand for housing.... They have to live somewhere!!!!"
Interesting sentiment. Apparently, "renting" is not "living"?
Interesting sentiment. Apparently, "renting" is not "living"?
FUNNY!
Lady posts how while renting, she has watched prices for her type of home fall over 200K...
and duffus of the day says "you should buy now..." Lesson Not understood much?
Lady posts how while renting, she has watched prices for her type of home fall over 200K...
and duffus of the day says "you should buy now..." Lesson Not understood much?
Now is the Time for Buyers?
-
- 4.8/5.0
- (2 reviews)
Contributions:484As we can see from recent reports, inventories are down while prices are rising. Mortgage rates are trending up as activity has been declining. And the list of confused experts grows daily!
It appears the only fact is that if you are able to buy, there is no better time to make a deal. Sellers who look at all this activity are more willing to negotiate on many issues.
Add to this the increased activity with experienced real estate investors. Do they know something that no one else does?
There may be no better time than now!!
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