Oakland Crime Spree

I don't know if someone is going to make you move from what Zillow thinks is a $1.6 million home by paying you $6 million, but I will tell you that as this recession intensifies, unemployment is going to rise. And I expect that Oakland is going to become a freaking shooting gallery. San Francisco, the Silicon Valley, the Peninsula, further out in the East Bay like Dublin, San Ramon, Lafayette, etc., those places will hurt, but not like Oakland. Once people start to fear for their lives, that little island of rich people in the Oakland HIlls are going to realize that they do not belong there and no police brutality, no armor and home alarm systems is going to make them feel safe there.

I see a lot of places for sale in the Oakland Hills so someone must be thinking the same thing, but I wonder what the concensus is.  The question is whether a long recession is likely to result in much worse unemployment and crime in Oakland and if it does, if you will see rich folks flee from the Oakland Hills.
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February 12 2009
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Answers (3)

Profile picture for rob922729
Not quite sure what your question is.  However, I would simply say that Zillow is completely off base on this one.  There hasn't been a house that sold in 94611 for $200 per square foot in probably 20 years. Particularly one that has been recently remodeled, has fantastic views, sits on 4 lots totalling 3/4 acre, and is in the Piedmont school district.  
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May 07 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat
census data says the average range is 35-50, almost 70% white with a median(half higher, half lower) gross salary of 130,000+ and an average stock income(dividends+ bank interest) approaching 16,000...60% of whom used a CPA or other "professional" for their taxes last year.

the data is here

you have to admit its a pretty good chunk...
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May 07 2009
Profile picture for zany2
I see a lot of places for sale in general in the Bay Area.  But then again, I see them all across the US as well. I'm not sure the Oakland Hills is really such an anomaly.  Right now the concensus is (from what I read&hear in the news) isn't so much that Oakland will have much worse unemployment & crime than anywhere else in the Bay Area - or the US for that matter. That folks are "fleeing" or thinking of "fleeing."  Oakland simply has more of both than is wanted; I'm sure anyone would agree on that!

As for "rich folk" being the sole people in the Oakland Hills, You're generalizing, and I'm sorry, but you are sorely mistaken. Yes, there are some. However, there are just as many, if not more, older, retired homeowners living their lives out on a fixed income.  Also younger parents with their 1st child or a couple of young children. Lastly, there are other mid-aged couples with no kids (or grown kids). Most people are not dropping rich. The Oakland Hills is not Atherton. Or Palo Alto for that matter.  Not even Dublin.  That being said, upper Skyline definitely has some pockets.  But you have to wonder there also...how many of those homes were built after the fire storm at the expense of the insurance companies?  

Take time to learn the "micro pockets" in 94611, & you'll get a more far more accurate understanding of just where the "rich folks" live.  But to be fair and accurate, definitely confirm their banking account balances. Slander another city until you have the facts. And just the facts!
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May 07 2009
 
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