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Once we clear up all these short sales and forclosures - prices will be back to normal?

Profile picture for RapperDawg
Contributions: 31
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Since October 2009

Town assessors, and city governments..  Banks, and realtors..  They all seem to talk as if a short sale price or a forclosure price is not an accurate representation of market value.  What is up with this?   Whatever a house sells for as a part of the collective in the community is an accurate representation of the fair market value?   Is this talk another smoke and mirrors type talk?
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October 07 - Seattle
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Profile picture for workabee
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Since June 2009

Sure prices will return to normal. But normal ain't 2006 plus prices my friend. It's more like the prices in 2000. 
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October 17
Profile picture for Caveat Emptor
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AP Real Estate Writer – Thu Oct 15

  That puts foreclosure-related filings on a pace to hit about 3.5 million this year, up from more than 2.3 million last year.

It was the seventh-straight month in which more than 300,000 households receiving a foreclosure filing, which includes default notices and several other legal notices that homeowners receive before they finally lose their homes.

Banks repossessed nearly 88,000 homes in September, up from about 76,000 a month earlier.

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October 17
Profile picture for CORONA NICK
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The way I look at it,

1. Plenty of Foreclosures still on their way, literally a wave, pushing price down.
2. Interest rates have no where to go but up, pushing prices down.
3. Unemployment, bad economy, reduces demand for purchases, pushing price down.
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October 17
Profile picture for col_10022
When you have one or two foreclosures in a market, that's one thing, when 20% of the sales in a market are short sales or foreclosures then that has to be reflected in market value.

Are you guys trying to tell me that foreclosures aren't affecting the pricing on non-foreclosures?  Of course not.  You wish that we could have a few bad years and then go back to what we had in the early part of this decade, well wishing won't make it so.  It took Japan 25 (TWENTY FIVE) years to recover its losses from their real estate bubble and they recovered just in time to run right into this one.  I'm not saying that we are going to take 25 years to reach 2007 prices but right now the only thing keeping home prices afloat are folks that just can't bear the thought of selling their homes for 20-25% below what they could have gotten 2 years ago and Obama bending over backwards to prevent a freefall.

The best we can hope for is for prices to drift lower until inflation (specifically wage inflation) rises enough so that people can actually afford the homes these homes.

Look back to the 40's 50's 60's and 70's to see what sort of expense ratio people were using.  See what sort of down payments people were using.  This was all in a relatively low interest rate environment.

There is an intrinsic value to homes and that value has a direct relationship with wage levels at all but the very highest end of the market.
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October 16
Profile picture for col_10022
When you have one or two foreclosures in a market, that's one thing, when 20% of the sales in a market are short sales or foreclosures then that has to be reflected in market value.

Are you guys trying to tell me that foreclosures aren't affecting the pricing on non-foreclosures?  Of course not.  You wish that we could have a few bad years and then go back to what we had in the early part of this decade, well wishing won't make it so.  It took Japan 25 (TWENTY FIVE) years to recover its losses from their real estate bubble and they recovered just in time to run right into this one.  I'm not saying that we are going to take 25 years to reach 2007 prices but right now the only thing keeping home prices afloat are folks that just can't bear the thought of selling their homes for 20-25% below what they could have gotten 2 years ago and Obama bending over backwards to prevent a freefall.

The best we can hope for is for prices to drift lower until inflation (specifically wage inflation) rises enough so that people can actually afford the homes these homes.

Look back to the 40's 50's 60's and 70's to see what sort of expense ratio people were using.  See what sort of down payments people were using.  This was all in a relatively low interest rate environment.

Anybody care to guess what caused the upward drift in ratios?
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October 16
Profile picture for Pat Bourgo
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When the average DOM is 180 and a REO sells in 10 days.  You are saying this is what the house is worth?  Have you thought that the Greed from the bank reduce the price to sell it under market value to get it off the books faster.  This is a forced decline.
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October 12
Profile picture for Caveat Emptor
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hey, az! we are ONLY LOSING 500,000 jobs per month now(while gearing up for the holiday temp employment)! everything is dandy!!!
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October 10
Profile picture for azrob
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since the number of homes IN foreclosure is still increasing, any talk about "what happens after" is just ridiculously premature. We are still losing jobs, with newfound interest in attempting to modify existing defaulted loans, the process will get stretched out even longer. 2010 will be a great year to see how all this is working out, but no way we get out of the woods for several more years... AND interest rates will rise, they have no other direction to go...
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October 10
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Mack McCoy

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Since October 2009

- The most realistic transactions will be those Shortsales and foreclosures while the market is settling.

Simply: wrong.
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October 09
Profile picture for NWHome.us
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I don't see anyone in denial on this post. It seems that we are all in complete agreement that distressed or non-arms-length sales effect market values.
Industry wide terminology supports communication within the industry.  We can all invent our own definitions for the terms or attempt to understand how they are used.
As I noted before Long Sales and Foreclosures have been around for a long time and their dominance of the market has ebbed and flowed.  We aren't the first to experience value corrections. 
I also think that, at the retail level, we are nothing more than "along for the ride".  We deal on a daily basis with the cards that we have in front of us. 
Watch the Feds and Lenders for the value in the economy.
How about those refinance and overdraft fee profits this year!  Aren't they being used against the write-downs for previous bad debt decisions?  Maybe they should opperating at a neutral profit until the bad debts are cleared.
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October 08
Profile picture for White Picture
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Even with the flood of foreclosures and short sells, in Los Angeles and Orange county, the home prices was up 15% from low at feb. 2009, if "Once we clear up all these short sales and forclosures", the home prices are absolutely go back to normal.
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October 08
Profile picture for DYeh
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Short Sales, and Foreclosures should be the most accurate market value during pricing settling.  The reasons there are short sales and foreclosures are very obvious because the previous¤t market values are too high (inflated bubbles). The people who bought it at inflated bubble prices are not able to get the inflated bubble prices back. To correct the market, the housing down turns must take place to realistic prices where the qualified people are buying.  The most realistic transactions will be those Shortsales and foreclosures while the market is settling.  The inflated "Market Value" should be adjusted base the all sales including short sales and foreclosures to reflect the real life.  Currently, many RE Professionals are still in denial not to include Short sales and foreclosures.  At this point, the market values still have a long way to go down.

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October 08
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Mack McCoy

Seattle WA

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Since October 2009

Second, Daniel!

Foreclosures are so not representative of the market, evidenced by the fact that very few actual homebuyers attend the auctions.

Short sales have some friction to the deal; when buyers are uncertain that their agreement with the seller will be ratified by the lender - or that their offer may take months to be accepted, that discounts the value of the property.

A large segment, perhaps the majority of the homebuying market, wants to close pretty darned soon and move in already, not face months of uncertainty.

So, foreclosures and short sales do not represent Fair Market Value.

 
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October 08

What is normal? 

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October 07
Profile picture for Menudo Bongo
For prices to be back to normal, they still need to come down.  Prices are still way too high (at least in the West Coast) - the bubble has just deflated a little bit, hasn't popped as yet.
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October 07
Profile picture for FriendshipProperties
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Short Sales and REOs sell for less than 'Market Value' b/c the sellers are extremely motivated and the buyers expect a great discount for the hassles of dealing with the banks 'ways'.  B/C of the mass number of short sales and foreclosures, it has set a temp. discounted market value on what a buyer is willing to pay based on the competition (other bank sales).  In a 'regular' market, REOs and Short Sales would not be used as comps or would be seen as significantly discounted from actual value.

    The entire market is Motivated Sellers dumping properties to sell in 1-4 weeks.  When the market returns to sellers who are not FORCED to sell quickly, then they will start asking 'normal' prices again.  You can not sell at a 'normal' price in this market b/c the motivated seller up the street is 50-70 cents on the dollar.
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October 07
Profile picture for reba_haas
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There is nothing that says prices will somehow quickly bounce back to pre-recession levels. That's a misunderstanding a lot of people seem to have. In the Seattle metro area prices since August 2007 have generally dropped around 12% per year. The rebound in the market is currently anticipated to begin around mid-2010.  BUT, the question really is... what does that mean and what does it look like? Most likely lower appreciation levels of 3-5% per year. Not the hyperappreciation we had for about 10 years of 12-35% growth. People need to reset expectations.
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October 07
Profile picture for RapperDawg
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Since October 2009

Yes, I quit going to auctions..  No deals there..  Better off dealing with a realtor for a deal..
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October 07
Profile picture for NWHome.us
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Nope, no smoke.  We just use the same industry definition so that we understand the basis that the statistics are set on.
It has to do with the definition of the term "arms length transaction".  It has a meaning that the industry has used through many recessions and at least one depression.
Statistics actually try to tag those sales that are not at arms length (think of the sale between siblings or relatives or a simple Quit Claim Deed) and remove them from their sample.  Zillow scrubs their data in this way.
Do distressed sales affect the market value of homes?  Yes, of course; they are real live competition for dollars. I think we're looking at the tip of the iceberg at the moment, but I don't think the problem is at the retail level.  I'd focus on what the Feds and lenders are doing.  The rest of us are along for the ride.
On the other hand the auctions that I've been to haven't shown me any whopping deals!  Yes there may be 1 or 2 that slip in, but I see as many go through that were at a 5% discount which evaporates immediatley when you have to clean up after the defaulting owners left the property.
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October 07
 

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